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Ivanhater
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#681 Postby Ivanhater » Sun Oct 16, 2005 5:41 pm

next monday


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Last edited by Ivanhater on Sun Oct 16, 2005 5:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Derek Ortt

#682 Postby Derek Ortt » Sun Oct 16, 2005 5:42 pm

where is this 1000mb coming from?

Last recon pressure showed that the pressure had gone up slightly to 1002mb
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#683 Postby gatorcane » Sun Oct 16, 2005 5:43 pm

Yes there, we go. Now the GFS is coming into better agreement with my thinking. There is the NE turn that I would think the GFS would have it doing in the GOM. on Mon. :wink:
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#684 Postby Brent » Sun Oct 16, 2005 5:43 pm

ivanhater wrote:next monday


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Looks to come in right at Sarasota/Port Charlotte.
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#685 Postby Ivanhater » Sun Oct 16, 2005 5:44 pm

next wed

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#686 Postby gatorcane » Sun Oct 16, 2005 5:44 pm

Indeed, I would think tonight at 11pm or sometime Mon. you'll see the NHC 5 day cone bend dramatically to the NE into the W part of FL...
Since we are 7+ days out until landfall, the cone is not showing this turn right now.
Last edited by gatorcane on Sun Oct 16, 2005 5:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#687 Postby krysof » Sun Oct 16, 2005 5:44 pm

but I think it will be a lot stronger than what the gfs is forecasting
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#688 Postby Brent » Sun Oct 16, 2005 5:45 pm

krysof wrote:but I think it will be a lot stronger than what the gfs is forecasting


GFS should not be used for intensity...
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#689 Postby Ivanhater » Sun Oct 16, 2005 5:46 pm

boca_chris wrote:Yes there, we go. Now the GFS is coming into better agreement with my thinking. There is the NE turn that I would think the GFS would have it doing in the GOM. on Mon. :wink:


wait, you just said 5 min ago..this run is wrong... :wink:
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#690 Postby Weatherfreak14 » Sun Oct 16, 2005 5:46 pm

I say watch out for SC or NC or VA for next week. Not this coming week. Wait I'm sc. Oh no. :sick:
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#691 Postby dhweather » Sun Oct 16, 2005 5:46 pm

The GOM does not have adequate oceanic heat to support a major hurricane for long.
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#692 Postby El Nino » Sun Oct 16, 2005 5:46 pm

I agree. It's mentioned on last tropical update video, and once GoM HP will clear out with the dry air and TD24/Wilma cross a region with max heat-content, it will explode into a cat 1-2 hurricane.
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#693 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 16, 2005 5:46 pm

cjrciadt wrote:t numbers up again
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.3 /1000.5mb/ 51.0kt
.1 a hour what is it picking up?


From where you got this information? The last recon vortex that I posted was 1002 mbs and they are heading back to base.
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#694 Postby wxman57 » Sun Oct 16, 2005 5:47 pm

Brent wrote:
krysof wrote:but I think it will be a lot stronger than what the gfs is forecasting


GFS should not be used for intensity...


12Z GFDL forecasts 939 mb and 119 kts at 78 hrs then some weakening as it moves northward and encounters increasing shear.
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#695 Postby Stratosphere747 » Sun Oct 16, 2005 5:48 pm

ivanhater wrote:
boca_chris wrote:Yes there, we go. Now the GFS is coming into better agreement with my thinking. There is the NE turn that I would think the GFS would have it doing in the GOM. on Mon. :wink:


wait, you just said 5 min ago..this run is wrong... :wink:


LOL...

Still it is showing one heck of a jump from Sunday into Monday....Looks like over 20/25mph or so...
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#696 Postby gatorcane » Sun Oct 16, 2005 5:49 pm

boca_chris wrote:
Yes there, we go. Now the GFS is coming into better agreement with my thinking. There is the NE turn that I would think the GFS would have it doing in the GOM. on Mon.


wait, you just said 5 min ago..this run is wrong...


That's because it looked like it was taking it too far west but alas brings it into the W coast of FL will I think it will hit.
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#697 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 16, 2005 5:49 pm

cycloneye wrote:
cjrciadt wrote:t numbers up again
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.3 /1000.5mb/ 51.0kt
.1 a hour what is it picking up?


From where you got this information? The last recon vortex that I posted was 1002 mbs and they are heading back to base.
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#698 Postby krysof » Sun Oct 16, 2005 5:50 pm

ivanhater wrote:next wed

Image


so this storm may be coming right up the coast, probably a bit east then they are showing, off the coast, New England should watch out next week
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#699 Postby Ivanhater » Sun Oct 16, 2005 5:51 pm

boca_chris wrote:
boca_chris wrote:
Yes there, we go. Now the GFS is coming into better agreement with my thinking. There is the NE turn that I would think the GFS would have it doing in the GOM. on Mon.


wait, you just said 5 min ago..this run is wrong...


That's because it looked like it was taking it too far west but alas brings it into the W coast of FL will I think it will hit.


well you just cant pick and choose...if you think it was wrong for the first few days then the landfall will not be the same
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Weatherfreak000

ugh

#700 Postby Weatherfreak000 » Sun Oct 16, 2005 5:51 pm

boca_chris wrote:
Looks like it misses the trough.

But remember this is only a model...


I think it's wrong. It's such a weak system right now, we shouldn't trust the GFS model.

It has to make a NE turn in the GOM somewhere. Climatology says so.



This is such an..."interesting" comment to make.




CLIMATOLOGY said Vince could never have happened but it did. I'd warrant you were one of the first to say this upfront to.


Let's stick with facts, and facts are weak steering currents= No good conclusions.
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