TD 24,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[kevin]

Absolute rubbish.. Your forecast is about as good as your use of html tags. Strengthening to 155MPH at landfall?

What a wonderful first post. Did you only register to bash and flame his forecast? It sure looks like it.

It was a correct assesment, so I think a wonderful first post. Whoever came up with that forecast graphic and intensity didn't back it up with any data, and is in my opinion a troll.

[Ivanhater]

you beat me to it

[MiamiensisWx]

If the latest runs verify, the storm would move through the west-central or central Gulf of Mexico along the edges of higher SSTs in the western and west-central Gulf of Mexico. Very interesting...

[jhamps10]

wow looking at those models, I am really thinking that my forcast might have been off a little bit.

[bobbutts]

Absolute rubbish.. Your forecast is about as good as your use of html tags. Strengthening to 155MPH at landfall?

Well he may be off there, I would say at least a CAT 3 if not more.

The eastern GOM is still plenty warm. This year's hurricane's have not impacted the eastern GOM that much.

Right.. can't disagree much that there are sst's to support a major hurricane or close. I'd guess major at some point but Cat 2 or less at eventual landfall. It has cooled off from the warmest of summer heat some. I think Pre-Charley SST"s are a good comparison.

Now
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/d ... fmex.c.gif
Pre Charley
http://www.atmos.umd.edu/~stevenb/hurr/ ... erview.png

[jkt21787]

Absolute rubbish.. Your forecast is about as good as your use of html tags. Strengthening to 155MPH at landfall?

What a wonderful first post. Did you only register to bash and flame his forecast? It sure looks like it.

It was a correct assesment, so I think a wonderful first post. Whoever came up with that forecast graphic and intensity didn't back it up with any data, and is in my opinion a troll.

Still no reason for a brand new member to come online and bash him plus ridicule him further by referencing a simple mistake made in the posting of the forecast.

He's obviously not read the S2K rules. Even if the post is horrible and the member is a troll, there is no allowance for such posts and could warrant action by the moderators.

[Rainband]

<a href="http://s4m.us" target="_blank"><img alt="Image Hosted by S4M.us Image Hosting" src="http://s4m.us/uploads/bff8728315.gif" /></a>

This is 100% unoffical, and not the opinion of storm2k. This is merely the opinion of the poster and please refer to NHC, NWS, and local media for offical statements, advisories and warnings.

This is open to complete critqueing and I mean it.

I think that this is most defentaly the time of year that a cold front can come down and turn a storm right into Tampa Bay. This season has been big city year, and I'm afraid that we aren't done with the big city hits this year.

Absolute rubbish.. Your forecast is about as good as your use of html tags. Strengthening to 155MPH at landfall?

First and last warning!! Disagree with Respect!! We don't tolerate rudeness on S2K!!

[jhamps10]

Absolute rubbish.. Your forecast is about as good as your use of html tags. Strengthening to 155MPH at landfall?

What a wonderful first post. Did you only register to bash and flame his forecast? It sure looks like it.

It was a correct assesment, so I think a wonderful first post. Whoever came up with that forecast graphic and intensity didn't back it up with any data, and is in my opinion a troll.

Excuse me, I happen to take offense to that comment of calling me a troll.

[wxman57]

18Z GFDL is slower and farther west, kind of like the 18Z GFS. Of course, it's based on the GFS. Note the very slow movement at 126 hours. If it moves that slowly, then the threat may shift southward toward southern Florida.

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FO 24L

INITIAL TIME 18Z OCT 16

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 17.7 79.5 340./ 1.9
6 17.7 79.5 171./ .6
12 17.5 79.6 216./ 1.8
18 17.9 79.7 346./ 4.1
24 18.0 80.6 277./ 8.9
30 18.0 81.2 267./ 5.7
36 18.0 81.7 271./ 4.5
42 18.1 82.3 284./ 5.6
48 18.4 82.9 288./ 6.6
54 18.5 83.5 281./ 5.3
60 18.5 84.0 273./ 5.1
66 18.6 84.6 280./ 5.2
72 18.8 85.1 287./ 5.3
78 18.7 85.5 264./ 3.7
84 18.9 85.8 302./ 3.6
90 19.3 86.2 319./ 5.3
96 19.9 86.5 326./ 6.5
102 20.4 86.9 326./ 6.5
108 20.9 87.4 309./ 6.6
114 21.3 87.8 321./ 5.4
120 21.8 88.2 321./ 6.3
126 22.1 88.4 320./ 3.7

[Ivanhater]

ok guys, enough with wiscasting and flaming...back to t24.....im starting to sound like luis, lol

[wxmann_91]

Like one member says on here all the time, the name escapes me now, but he says, 'the safest place to be is right in the center of the models 5-7 days out'.

Well unfortunately that member is wrong. If you want to be safe from looking into the eye perhaps, but remember, whether it hits on the left or right edge of the cone, the center of the original cone will get affected. So pretty much if you are on that black line you'd better hope that the center of the storm strays away from the cone, especially if the storm is Katrina or Rita sized.

That's why I said it probably wasn't the case this time. I think the forecast track will be somewhat easier on this one, after the trough becomes involved. And that's why I think the margin for error on this one, even this far out, is prolly smaller, meaning the long range forecast might be more accurate than usual.

Sorry I always forget to read the entire post before giving comments.

[jkt21787]

First and last warning!! Disagree with Respect!! We don't tolerate rudeness on S2K!!

That is absolutely what I meant. Thank you.

[kevin]

Absolute rubbish.. Your forecast is about as good as your use of html tags. Strengthening to 155MPH at landfall?

What a wonderful first post. Did you only register to bash and flame his forecast? It sure looks like it.

It was a correct assesment, so I think a wonderful first post. Whoever came up with that forecast graphic and intensity didn't back it up with any data, and is in my opinion a troll.

Excuse me, I happen to take offense to that comment of calling me a troll.

I happen to take offense at fear mongering, sensationalism, and wild projections. We saw with Charley last year that no one can accurately predict a city landfall when a storm is coming in at that angle.

[THead]

Absolute rubbish.. Your forecast is about as good as your use of html tags. Strengthening to 155MPH at landfall?

Well he may be off there, I would say at least a CAT 3 if not more.

The eastern GOM is still plenty warm. This year's hurricane's have not impacted the eastern GOM that much.

Right.. can't disagree much that there are sst's to support a major hurricane or close. I'd guess major at some point but Cat 2 or less at eventual landfall. It has cooled off from the warmest of summer heat some. I think Pre-Charley SST"s are a good comparison.

Now
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/d ... fmex.c.gif
Pre Charley
http://www.atmos.umd.edu/~stevenb/hurr/ ... erview.png

Ok. What if it makes strong major status while in the Carib. still, won't that effect the surge at landfall even it does weaken to Cat 2 or so?

[Ivanhater]

talk about agreement

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Wow- I really have no idea whatsoever where this thing is going...
Anywhere from S. FL to Yucatan or Central America...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Absolute rubbish.. Your forecast is about as good as your use of html tags. Strengthening to 155MPH at landfall?

Well he may be off there, I would say at least a CAT 3 if not more.

The eastern GOM is still plenty warm. This year's hurricane's have not impacted the eastern GOM that much.

Right.. can't disagree much that there are sst's to support a major hurricane or close. I'd guess major at some point but Cat 2 or less at eventual landfall. It has cooled off from the warmest of summer heat some. I think Pre-Charley SST"s are a good comparison.

Now
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/d ... fmex.c.gif
Pre Charley
http://www.atmos.umd.edu/~stevenb/hurr/ ... erview.png

Ok. What if it makes strong major status while in the Carib. still, won't that effect the surge at landfall even it does weaken to Cat 2 or so?

If it makes Major over the Caribbean. Cuba will block the surge. Unless its a Major in the Gulf.

[El Nino]

If the westward shifting continues, Guatemala will be affected. Just what they needed for the moment. I'm really surprised by this agreement.

I think we should wait until the storm get better organised, and it will be the case in about 24-36h. It could shift back eastward though.

[jkt21787]

I'm not sure what to make of the models. I honestly don't know whether to believe them or not.

[jhamps10]

talk about agreement

I agree, don't know if that's a good thing or not. Sorry, I may get angry on here, Watchin the Cardinals astros game and the umpire just ejected Jim Edmonds for no reason what so ever....

Models agreeing Maybe they have things figured out. NAH!!