TD 24,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Models seem to think that the trough will fizzle or completely
miss this system...

[CHRISTY]

hey professional met what is your (take) on this slower movement and the possible affects more towards southern florida??

[Weatherfreak14]

Ok now back to topic..

I see it this way, that to me this thing looks like more of a mexico threat now than cuba, but they are still expecting a turn to the northeast then maybe ENE soit is still a Flordia threat any way you put it.

Looks to me like the storm is trying to go where the warmest SST are. Theres my 2 cents.

[Stratosphere747]

hey professional met what is your (take) on this slower movement and the possible affects more towards southern florida??

Please read his posts...

He has answered your question multiple times directly and indirectly....

His screen name is Wxman57..

Scott

[THead]

I'm not sure what to make of the models. I honestly don't know whether to believe them or not.

Yeah, just stay tuned. I think with it being a weak storm now, and weak steering currents from what the pro's have been saying, the models will have difficulties. However those are tightly clustered.......

[Canelaw99]

If it moves that slowly, then the threat may shift southward toward southern Florida.

Peachy lol

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

My thoughts on this system are bi-polarized
At one minute I think a complete miss, the next minute
a close call or hit.....
I'll just accept the wisdom:
It's way too early to tell...

[cycloneye]

I think that it is very early to make long range forecasts or proyections as there is not a tropical storm yet and the steering currents are weak so anything can happen in the short term from the TD weakening to an open wave to turn into a major cane and in terms of the track it can go erractic and move to centralamerica or the Yucatan Penninsula.What I am trying to say is that let's all take it easy and see how it all evolves in the next few days and when it turns into a storm then a more precise forecast can be made and then let's see how the troughs and ridges pan out to see if any part of the US will be affected by this system.So again let's calm down and see what mother nature has instore for us.

[Weatherfreak14]

I'm not sure what to make of the models. I honestly don't know whether to believe them or not.

Yeah, just stay tuned. I think with it being a weak storm now, and weak steering currents from what the pro's have been saying, the models will have difficulties. However those are tightly clustered.......

I Respectfully disagree, with it to be slow can that mean it can stay in a warm area such as the carribian and sort of suck as much energy as it can. But I think once it moves into the GOM at expect a pick up in speed.

[boca]

I have a camping trip with the cub scouts next weekend in Jupiter hopefully I won't have to cancel but its starting to look better and better for SE FL.

[Weatherfreak14]

Yeah it looks now more of a central or northern flordia landfall now.

[CHRISTY]

to early to say that.....

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

to early to say that.....

too early to say anything- I might as well shoot darts at a massive
board....

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

So whats others option when it will be upgraded to Wilma?

It doe's have a tight LLC based on satellite. In seems to have some deep convection. I say 5pm Monday.

[jhamps10]

yeah, if you have holloween plans for Disney World, they might be in Jeporady, but this may change. Stay tuned. Too early to tell. We now return you to your regular programming.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

some colder cloud tops

[boca]

Fl panhandle to Mississipi have to watch this more than SE FL,but that can change but I doubt it.

[THead]

I'm not sure what to make of the models. I honestly don't know whether to believe them or not.

Yeah, just stay tuned. I think with it being a weak storm now, and weak steering currents from what the pro's have been saying, the models will have difficulties. However those are tightly clustered.......

I Respectfully disagree, with it to be slow can that mean it can stay in a warm area such as the carribian and sort of suck as much energy as it can. But I think once it moves into the GOM at expect a pick up in speed.

Disagree with what?

[JTD]

I think that it is very early to make long range forecasts or proyections as there is not a tropical storm yet and the steering currents are weak so anything can happen in the short term from the TD weakening to an open wave to turn into a major cane and in terms of the track it can go erractic and move to centralamerica or the Yucatan Penninsula.What I am trying to say is that let's all take it easy and see how it all evolves in the next few days and when it turns into a storm then a more precise forecast can be made and then let's see how the troughs and ridges pan out to see if any part of the US will be affected by this system.So again let's calm down and see what mother nature has instore for us.

Awesome post, Luis

[Weatherfreak14]

Really to me the whole thing actually looks worse than it did last night.