UNOFFICIAL..TD 24 Forecast 2; CAT 4 and near 25N in 5 days

[ncweatherwizard]

Quote Storm2K:

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Quote Nencweather.com:
Although these forecasts appear statistically reliable (see below link), always first consult and consider official products released by the National Hurricane Center. This forecast is not associated with any other professional or non-professional source of information except nencweather.com.

Verifications may be found here:
http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweat ... index.html

Forecast 2:
http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweat ... -four.html

Another long discussion--Track forecast is a compromise of 12Z BAM package and GFDL/AVN runs from earlier. This brings the storm over or near the western tip of Cuba. The forecast is faster than guidance in the later portions of the forecast, but I didn't have the guts to suck it up and take it too quickly northward--I think the forecast track is pretty reasonable though. I'll let you in on a little puzzle though if you're wondering beyond 5 days: How long does a frontal boundary typically sit over the southeastern US in October? and, How far west will this thing get before it turns sharply northwestward and north-northwestward?--84W, 85W, 86W, etc...

Scott

P.S. I'm working on getting access to everyone for those pages that are accessed via the buttons on my site. That should be up in about a half hour or so, and I'll post when it's ready.

[artist]

I'll be looking forward to it!

[ncweatherwizard]

Ok; I've set up a text page of the links to the other pages available in the bars. You can go to the tropicalindex page, which is the first link listed in my regular posts, and there is a "special note" located above the bars. Click on that link, and it should take you to a new html page so you can access the files. For some reason, parts of the archives are cut off for some of the 2003 storms and I just noticed this a few days ago. I do have these archives on my free geocities server though, so I will transfer those over soon. If you want access to the bars on the home page (which is nothing but daily weather observations from my hometown), I can free that up as well, but it'll take a little longer. Hope this helps.

Scott

[artist]

thanks Scott! Good stats there!

[tornadochaser86]

i saw the tracks they say it may strengthen to cat 2