http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GIFS/NHWV.JPG
Note the massive ULL off the west coast. See NEXRADs discussion in the pro threads regarding the upper pattern and its influence on TD 24 in the longer term. the models, IMO are adjusting left in the short term due to the high building in north of TD 24 for about 24 to 36 hours more then earlier runs. But, it is important to look beyond that. Even 2 or 3 runs ago, there were strong indications that a somewhat hard NE turn would take place, (here is the key....AT SOME POINT). To me, this, along with intensity beyond 72 hours are extremely crucial for the Florida Peninsula. I am moderately confident that a landfall will occur east of MS/AL border and most likely west central or sw Florida sometime late weekend. I am somewhat hesitant regarding the intensity only because of current conditions, but the 18z GFS is in line with the 12z with respect to near perfect UL conditions by Wednesday. Also, note the 18z GFS with the more significant right turn late in the period prior to the peninsula. The general "thinking" from the GFS seems reasonable, only specific effects and details remain in question. Unless something else changes in the model run, the GFS will be followed for its overall pattern regarding TD 24
(edited to add GFDL discussion.....the GFDL does have TD 24 miss the initial weakness but certainly turns rapidly north right at the end of its cycle, obviously impacted by the second more impressive trough now off the west coast CONUS
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