Probability of Alpha this season?

[Aqua Teen Hunger Force]

[Terrell]

Sure looks like it's probable. If what I heard on TWC is right TD 24 will be Wilma within the next day or so, if this happens only way we don't get Alpha is if the season remains quiet for the rest of the year.

[quandary]

If TD 24 turns into Wilma, very very high. Otherwise, moderate.

[quandary]

Also, higher if Wilma is weak, and slightly lower if Wilma becomes strong/long-lasting. If Wilma is weak, it will have no effect on the ever-warm and potent NW Carib waters, if it saps that energy, then there will be a slightly lower chance of additional storms. Likewise, if it lasts long, it will sap more energy.

[aOl]

100%

[txwatcher91]

If TD 24 becomes Wilma, could this wave near 10N 55W develop and become Alpha?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/IR4/20.jpg

Edit- OOPS, forgot the link.

[tornadochaser86]

i think we willl get to about beta then stop wilma is a likely hood though

[wxmann_91]

If TD 24 becomes Wilma, could this wave near 10N 55W develop and become Alpha?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/IR4/20.jpg

Edit- OOPS, forgot the link.

Shear is too strong, and once TD 24 develops, it will get even stronger.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.html

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht.html

[Terrell]

Could Wilma be strong and stay around for a while without reducing the probability of Alpha? Could Alpha form somewhere other than in the Carribean or are the conditions, for the rest of the season, prohibitive to Tropical Storm formation elsewhere in the Atlantic Basin?

[W13]

Probably around 80-85%.

[wxmann_91]

LOL, even my local met mentioned the possibility of Alpha.

I'd say 75% chance.

[gilbert88]

85% chance. 50% of Beta.

[gilbert88]

Double.

[gilbert88]

Sorry, triple.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

90 percent chance for Wilma...75 percent for Alpha...40 percent Chance for Beta....10 percent chance for Gamma.