TD-24/Wilma Forecast #2: Slight shift left

[Scorpion]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.



Conditions should be better on Tuesday and Wednesday.

[cjrciadt]

the NE gets spared, but not me Cat2 conditions for me again like Charley.

[hicksta]

Good track. I thought you had a cat5 in 48 hours.. lol

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Scorpion, I respect your option. But the dry air to the systems north will only likely allow for slow development over the next few days. Maybe Wilma later tomarrow. Fellowed by a strengthing to a strong tropical storm/cat1 hurricane by late Wednesday into Thursday. Once over the Gulf if it doe's get picked up by the trough there will likely be shear...Also Tchp is lower then needed for a major hurricane.

[Scorpion]

Yes I agree thats why I am indicating slow development over the next day or 2.

[wxmann_91]

Scorpion, I respect your option. But the dry air to the systems north will only likely allow for slow development over the next few days. Maybe Wilma later tomarrow. Fellowed by a strengthing to a strong tropical storm/cat1 hurricane by late Wednesday into Thursday. Once over the Gulf if it doe's get picked up by the trough there will likely be shear...Also Tchp is lower then needed for a major hurricane.

According to Derek Ortt, Don Sutherland, NHC, and many, many other pro mets, it will reach major hurricane status. You use to overplay storms, now you constantly downplay them. Just because there is dry air now doesn't mean the it can't moisten up in the next few days.

Rita, Katrina, and Emily all had slow starts (remember Open Wave Emily?), but once their inner core got going, they bombed. The inner core takes time to organize. I don't see how this will be much different, with the exception of the dry air (which will abate by 24 hours, trust me), the upper-level conditions coupled with the high SST's and HHC is almost perfect for rapid intensification.

I don't see how this will not reach major hurricane status. My thinking is unchanged. Strong category 4 in four days, followed by some weakening in the GOM.

EDIT: Also, with the leftward shift, the projected track takes future Wilma over portions of the Loop Current, and also in warm eddy in the western Caribbean.

[Extremeweatherguy]

i think that your sudden turn to the right is too abrubt.

[O Town]

I hope your right

[wxmann_91]

i think that your sudden turn to the right is too abrubt.

I don't see how it is too abrupt. Strong troughs have created bigger turns this time of the year.

[TS Zack]

Every model run that passes makes me doubt a turn that sharp.

This trough will not be much if anything it looks like now. Maybe the second one. Still once this storm hits the Westerlies, even if it is a zonal flow it will recurve quickly.

[tornadochaser86]

me to all models i looked at say that in panhandle

[Scorpion]

Euro still maintains a solution more extreme than this. I will not give up until the Euro and CMC change their tune.

[Scorpion]

Indeed, the models have made a big right shift toward my forecast landfall area. It is good to stick to your guns and not change with every model run. I will make a new forecast later tonight.