JB on west caribbean development

[Nimbus]

Artist wrote:

there is rotation that I can see down there - just not certain if it is mid level or low level.

Looks like mid level from the IR imagery but there was a strong flare up over night that might indicate something down closer to the surface.

It is late in the season but this could develop into something.
Have to see the NHC take a little more interest before I start screaming Blackjack though.

[cycloneye]

Have to see the NHC take a little more interest before I start screaming Blackjack though.

Nimbus what you mean by that is if NHC puts an invest up or have a recon to task the area it would show that their interest increases bigtime.

[sponger]

That or an evac order for the keys!

[curtadams]

At this point I can't see why they don't have an invest up. There's obvious cyclonic AND anticyclonic circulation south of Jamaica. There's strong convection in the circulation and now all the competition is fading. The shear analysis is down but last night it was showing mild-to-moderate Ely shear. In any case, just looking at the IR you can see there's no killer shear anywhere in the Caribbean, GoM, or nearby Atlantic. Water is bathtub. Air is moist. What the heck is unfavorable?

[bigmike]

On the latest offering from the mount JB indicated he expected the system to be in the southeast gulf by next week. Hmm looks like he worships at the altar of the euro and the cmc. We all know his obvious disdain for the Global Fish System.

[beachbum_al]

Monitoring Caribbean disturbance

Low pressure near Jamaica is devloping and may become a tropical depression and even a tropical storm in the near future

From TWC headline on my desktop.

[krysof]

bump- take a look at page one to see how its been organizing