Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

[gatorcane]

it will be a T.S by the time we wake up tomorrow, probably an intermediate advisory tonight with the upgrade.

[gtalum]

I just hope all this hype isn't for nothing.

I hope it IS for nothing. Otherwise someone's gonna get a nasty storm.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

All I hope for is for this storm to tie 1933. I think thats ok to hope for?

[Brent]

it will be a T.S by the time we wake up tomorrow, probably an intermediate advisory tonight with the upgrade.

Well I'll still be up then.

[fasterdisaster]

All I hope for is for this storm to tie 1933. I think thats ok to hope for?

Yes it is Ok. I hope so too.

[Brent]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN OCT 16 2005

THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF THE DEPRESSION HAS CERTAINLY CHANGED
DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. WHILE OUTER BANDS HAVE DISSIPATED...
SOME VERY DEEP CONVECTION HAS ERUPTED NEAR AND ESPECIALLY TO THE
SOUTH OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER TONIGHT... ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTION
HAS BEEN PERCOLATING RATHER THAN MAINTAINING CONSISTENCY NEAR THE
CENTER. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 00Z WERE T2.5/35 KT FROM
TAFB AND SAB AND T2.0/30 KT FROM AFWA. WIND OBSERVATIONS FROM NOAA
BUOY 42057 ABOUT 60 MILES WEST OF THE CENTER AND OUTSIDE OF THE
CONVECTION HAVE BEEN NO STRONGER THAN 19 KT DURING THE EVENING...
AND IT IS NOT CERTAIN THAT THE WINDS ARE TWICE THAT STRONG BENEATH
THE DEEP CONVECTION. EVEN THOUGH THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS HELD AT
30 KT... THE DEPRESSION APPEARS VERY CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS
AND WILL LIKELY REACH IT ON MONDAY MORNING.

THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS ALMOST NON-EXISTENT BUT IS ESTIMATED TO
BE 275/2. THE VARIOUS DYNAMICAL MODELS AGREE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD
TRACK FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS WITH PERHAPS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED. THE WESTWARD TREND CONTINUES IN THE 18Z RUNS OF THE
GFS AND GFDL WHICH NOW FORECAST THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO REACH THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA IN ABOUT FOUR DAYS. THE LAST FEW GFS RUNS HAVE
BEEN HANGING ON TO PROGRESSIVELY MORE MID-LEVEL RIDGING FOR THE
NEXT THREE DAYS OR SO OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... AND
SLIGHTLY MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES ON
DAYS 4-5. THE NEW GFS AND GFDL SOLUTIONS ARE NOW MUCH CLOSER TO THE
NOGAPS... WHICH IS STILL ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE
BUT HAS NUDGED A LITTLE BACK TO THE NORTH. THE FORECAST PATTERN NOW
ANTICIPATED BY MOST OF THE MODELS WOULD DELAY A TURN OF THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE NORTHWARD TO VERY LATE IN THE FIVE DAY FORECAST
PERIOD. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AGAIN ADJUSTED SOUTHWESTWARD
TOWARD... BUT NOT AS FAR AS... THE DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS. DUE TO THE
LARGE SPREAD OF THE MODELS... ESPECIALLY AT DAYS 3-5... THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THIS TRACK FORECAST IS FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT.

THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST OR SUPPORTING
REASONING. AN ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PROVIDED BY
A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN... AND
WATERS WITH LARGE UPPER OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT... SHOULD LEAD TO
STEADY STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS APPEARS EVEN
MORE LIKELY NOW GIVEN THE MORE CONCENTRATED CONVECTION NEAR THE
CIRCULATION CENTER THIS EVENING. THE LATEST GFDL FORECASTS MORE
STRENGTHENING... AND MORE RAPIDLY... THAN IN THE PREVIOUS FEW
RUNS... WITH AN INTENSITY NEAR 115 KT IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. MEANWHILE
THE SHIPS GUIDANCE REMAINS MORE CONSERVATIVE IN FORECASTING A
HURRICANE IN 48-72 HOURS. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS IN
BETWEEN AND IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.


FORECASTER KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 17/0300Z 17.6N 79.7W 30 KT
12HR VT 17/1200Z 17.7N 80.2W 40 KT
24HR VT 18/0000Z 17.8N 80.9W 50 KT
36HR VT 18/1200Z 18.0N 81.9W 60 KT
48HR VT 19/0000Z 18.3N 83.0W 70 KT
72HR VT 20/0000Z 19.0N 85.0W 80 KT
96HR VT 21/0000Z 20.5N 86.5W 90 KT
120HR VT 22/0000Z 22.5N 87.5W 90 KT

[artist]

THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS IN
BETWEEN AND IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

huh???

[Brent]

THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS IN
BETWEEN AND IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

huh???

The intensity forecast.

[Swimdude]

It'll be named at 5am while I'm asleep.

I know. I can smell it.

[cycloneye]

I will be sleeping when they classifie it so I edited the title to include Wilma.

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM EDT MON OCT 17 2005

...SLOWLY MOVING DEPRESSION NEARING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 2 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 79.6 WEST OR
ABOUT 170 MILES... 270 KM... SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN.

THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MEANDERING IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA THE PAST
FEW HOURS... BUT A SLOW DRIFT TOWARD THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST NEAR 2
MPH... 4 KM/HR... IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...
STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN WEAK AND SOME ERRATIC MOTION IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. HOWEVER... THE DEPRESSION IS SLOWLY BECOMING BETTER
ORGANIZED... AND IT COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY. IF
AND WHEN IT DOES SO... IT WILL TIE THE RECORD OF 21 NAMED STORMS
SET IN 1933.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO
6 INCHES OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND JAMAICA... WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.

REPEATING THE 2 AM EDT POSITION...17.4 N... 79.6 W. MOVEMENT
DRIFTING SOUTHWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 5 AM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Holy shoot its moving southward!

[JamesFromMaine2]

HERES WILMA!!!!!!!!!!!!

000
WTNT34 KNHC 170826
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM WILMA ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT MON OCT 17 2005

...TROPICAL STORM WILMA BECOMES THE 21ST NAMED STORM OF THE 2005
ATLANTIC SEASON OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
...TIES THE RECORD FOR NAMED STORMS SET BACK IN 1933...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM WILMA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 79.7 WEST OR ABOUT 175 MILES
... 280 KM... SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN.

WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH... 6 KM/HR. A SLOW
MOTION TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR WEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. HOWEVER...STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN WEAK AND SOME ERRATIC
MOTION IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES
WILMA THE 21ST NAMED TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2005 ATLANTIC HURRICANE
SEASON... WHICH TIES THE RECORD OF 21 NAMED STORMS SET BACK IN
1933. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES
... 75 KM... MAINLY SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
4 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND JAMAICA... WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.

REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...17.2 N... 79.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...SOUTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART

$$

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Wahooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo!!!!!


We tied 1933!!!!

[TampaFl]

It's Offical, WIma is here!!!! What a record breaking year!

[JamesFromMaine2]

now after we deal with Wilma (I still think the models will shift back east now that its a tropical storm and prob. soon to be hurricane!) lets see if we can get one more fish storm so we can break the record its not enough just to tie it! lol

[TampaFl]

It appears that the center is becoming exposed Thoughts and comments welcomed.

Robert

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT MON OCT 17 2005

A TREMENDOUS BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION...WITH TOPS AS COLD AS -87C TO
-89C... HAS DEVELOPED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH
AND SOUTHWEST OF THE ALLEGED CENTER OF NOW TROPICAL STORM WILMA.
MICROWAVE SATELLITE DATA ALONG WITH WIND DATA FROM NOAA BUOY 42057
INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH OR
SOUTHWESTWARD. HOWEVER... THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE LOCATED IN THE CENTER OF THE DEEP CONVECTION... RATHER IT IS
LIKELY LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE -50C CLOUD TOPS.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE A CONSENSUS T2.5 FROM TAFB...
SAB...AND AFWA... AND A UW-CIMSS 3-HR AVERAGE ODT INTENSITY
ESTIMATE AT 17/0545Z WAS T2.8/41 KT. IN ADDITION... GRADIENT WIND
CALCULATIONS USING THE CENTRAL PRESSURE AND NEARBY PRESSURE VALUES
FROM THE NOAA BUOY AND JAMAICA SUPPORT 35-KT WINDS SOMEWHERE WITHIN
60 NMI OF THE CENTER. IF ANY 35-KT WINDS EXISTS... THEN THEY ARE
LIKELY IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT WHERE THE STRONG CONVECTION IS
LOCATED. THEREFORE... THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 35 KT...
WHICH MAKES WILMA THE 21ST NAMED TROPICAL STORM OF THE VERY BUSY
2005 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON. THIS TIES THE RECORD SET BACK IN
1933.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 235/03. THE GENERAL TREND IN THE
CONVECTIVE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BEEN TO SHIFT SLOWLY SOUTH OR
SOUTHWESTWARD AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE NORTH OVER FLORIDA AND
CUBA APPEAR TO BE THE ONLY STEERING FLOW AVAILABLE. BUT ON A LARGER
SCALE... WILMA REMAINS TRAPPED BETWEEN TO HIGH PRESSURE CELLS TO
THE NORTHWEST AND EAST OF THE CYCLONE. THE 00Z GLOBAL MODELS AND
THE MAJORITY OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SIGNIFICANTLY
WESTWARD OR TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS GUIDANCE AND FORECAST
TRACK. THE ONLY MODELS NOT CLOSE TO THE NHC CONSENSUS OR GUNA MODEL
ARE THE ECMWF... CANADIAN... AND THE GFS 10-MEMBER ENSEMBLE MODELS.
THE ECWMF HAS BEEN REMARKABLY CONSISTENT WITH ITS TRACK THE PAST 5
DAYS IN MOVING THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. IT ALSO WAS
THE ONLY MODEL TO EARLY AND ACCURATELY PREDICT CYCLOGENESIS. THE
ECMWF AND THE CANADIAN MODELS ARE ALSO THE ONLY MODELS THAT DO NOT
LOSE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. THAT IS
CURRENTLY MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH THE AXIS OF THE LONGWAVE RIDGE.
UPPER-AIR DATA AT 00Z INDICATE A GOOD THERMAL PATTERN ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS TROUGH... WHICH ONLY THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN HAVE PICKED
UP ON. THE SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD DOWN THE EAST
SIDE OF THE LONGWAVE RIDGE AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN/ERODE THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS FLORIDA... CUBA...AND THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO BY 48 HOURS. ALSO... THE DEEP-LAYER LOW OFF THE COAST OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA IN COMBINATION WITH THE DEEP LOW OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN A BLOCKING-TYPE PATTERN ACROSS THE
U.S.... WHICH MEANS THE STEERING FLOW SHOULD CHANGE LITTLE FOR AT
LEAST THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK WAS ONLY
SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT... OR WEST... OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK
OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE CONSISTENT ECMWF MODEL... AND ALSO UNTIL THE
EVOLUTION OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. BECOMES
MORE CERTAIN BY LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

SOME MID-LEVEL DRY AIR AND SHEAR ARE STILL UNDERCUTTING THE
IMPRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN. HOWEVER... THESE ADVERSE
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE SLOWLY DIMINISHING BASED ON CONVENTIONAL
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND A 17/0155Z SSMI WATER VAPOR ANALYSIS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE FOR
CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. ONLY
POSSIBLE LAND INTERACTION WITH THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PRECLUDES
FORECASTING WILMA TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY 120 HOURS. THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE LESS ROBUST SHIPS
MODEL AND THE VERY BULLISH GFDL MODEL... WITH THE LATTER MODEL
MAKING WILMA A 109-KT HURRICANE BY 60 HOURS.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 17/0900Z 17.2N 79.7W 35 KT
12HR VT 17/1800Z 17.1N 80.3W 40 KT
24HR VT 18/0600Z 17.2N 81.1W 50 KT
36HR VT 18/1800Z 17.4N 82.0W 60 KT
48HR VT 19/0600Z 17.8N 83.3W 70 KT
72HR VT 20/0600Z 18.5N 85.0W 80 KT
96HR VT 21/0600Z 20.0N 86.5W 90 KT...NEAR NORTHEAST YUCATAN
120HR VT 22/0600Z 22.5N 87.5W 90 KT...NEAR NORTHEAST YUCATAN

[cycloneye]

026
WTNT34 KNHC 171147
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM WILMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM EDT MON OCT 17 2005

...WILMA MOVING ERRATICALLY IN THE CARIBBEAN...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM WILMA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 79.6 WEST OR ABOUT 205 MILES
... 335 KM... SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN.

WILMA IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT ABOUT 5 MPH ...8 KM/HR...BUT A SLOW
MOTION TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR WEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN WEAK AND A CONTINUED ERRATIC
MOTION IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 40 MPH... 65
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES
... 75 KM... MAINLY SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
4 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND JAMAICA... WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.

REPEATING THE 8 AM EDT POSITION...16.8 N... 79.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...SOUTH NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM EDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[hurricanefloyd5]

i have a very very concerning problem with ts.wilma auccweather says it will hit tampa still as a cat.3 hurricane as a possible senereio and i want to know how accurate they are?????????