Wilma,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[DESTRUCTION5]

Moving now South at 5 mph means more left shift of the models.

Don't think that will happen Luis...I think the further south this gets the Furthest East the Endgame...

[Thunder44]

Moving now South at 5 mph means more left shift of the models.

It's really been moving erractically for the last several hours. So I don't it will make much of a difference. In fact, the 6z GFS and 6z GFDL, have shifted way back east to Florida again.

[Trader Ron]

For all we know, Wilma could spin it's self to death in the next week.

[cycloneye]

why?

She is not moving north but southward and as long it does that erratic movement the models and the NHC track will shift more to the left at 11 AM so now Yucatan penninsula is now fully on the bulls eye.

[Trader Ron]

why?

She is not moving north but southward and as long it does that erratic movement the models and the NHC track will shift more to the left at 11 AM so now Yucatan penninsula is now fully on the bulls eye.

And if that happens, it COULD die over the Yucatan.

[DESTRUCTION5]

GFS,Euro,Can,and GFDL all back in the WCFL ballpark...Here we go agian...Look for the UK to follow along with the Bamm Bamm Crap...

[cycloneye]

And now with this southward movement as I said in above post now more needed a tropical Storm Warning has to be issued for the NE part of Nicaragua and the North coast of Honduras.

[cycloneye]

17/1145 UTC 16.6N 79.4W T3.0/3.0 WILMA -- Atlantic Ocean


3.0 means a little more stronger storm 45kts.

[cycloneye]

CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL STORM WILMA 24L

INITIAL TIME 6Z OCT 17

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 17.4 79.7 235./ 2.9
6 17.2 79.9 218./ 2.4
12 17.2 80.3 269./ 4.5
18 17.2 80.7 265./ 3.2
24 17.3 81.0 288./ 3.8
30 17.4 81.5 288./ 4.8
36 17.6 81.8 303./ 3.2
42 18.0 81.9 348./ 4.3
48 18.6 82.2 325./ 6.2
54 19.0 82.5 328./ 5.3
60 19.4 82.9 316./ 5.4
66 19.6 83.2 308./ 3.6
72 20.1 83.5 327./ 4.8
78 20.6 83.7 339./ 5.7
84 21.3 84.0 338./ 7.6
90 22.0 84.2 338./ 7.0
96 22.5 84.7 323./ 7.0
102 23.2 84.9 341./ 6.7
108 24.0 84.9 359./ 8.1
114 24.7 84.7 14./ 7.1
120 25.3 84.5 17./ 6.7
126 26.2 84.0 32./ 9.5



6z GFDL.It tracks thru the western tip of Cuba and bends NE at the end.

[HurricaneGirl]

Holy Crap!! It has a Name!!

[Weatherfreak14]

Yep everyone suspected the GFDL would go back east and it did. Flordia is not out of it yet.

[weatherwindow]

Moving now South at 5 mph means more left shift of the models.

...good morning luis....i am beginning to wonder if we are watching a repeat of mitch TRACK not intensity ...that said i am still of the belief that the endgame will be peninsular florida.......rich

[WeatherEmperor]

as anoying as it is for these models to shift back as dramatically as they did(GFS and GFDL) its not totally surprising. Now the wait for the 12Z models from NOGAPS and UKMET to see if they shift back right as well or if this will become an even MORE complicated mess.

<RICKY>

[cycloneye]

TPNT KGWC 171215 COR
A. TROPICAL STORM WILMA
B. 17/1131Z (110)
C. 15.8N/4
D. 80.5W/3
E. FIVE/GOES12
F. T2.5/2.5/D1.0/19HRS -17/1131Z-
G. IR/EIR

38A/ PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .50 USING THE LOG10 SPIRAL
GIVING A DT OF 2.5. FT IS BASED ON DT...PT YIELDS 2.0.
COR FOR STORM NAME, LINE A. COR SENT AT 17/1220Z
AODT: T4.5 (UCCR)

WEAVER


Air force sat estimates.

[Weatherfreak14]

Now a TS should the models have a better idea where it can go.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM WILMA (AL242005) ON 20051017 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051017 1200 051018 0000 051018 1200 051019 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 16.4N 79.8W 16.4N 80.2W 17.0N 80.9W 17.9N 81.6W
BAMM 16.4N 79.8W 16.7N 80.3W 17.4N 81.0W 18.3N 81.9W
A98E 16.4N 79.8W 15.7N 80.1W 15.7N 81.0W 16.1N 81.6W
LBAR 16.4N 79.8W 16.4N 80.7W 17.5N 81.8W 18.8N 83.0W
SHIP 35KTS 43KTS 53KTS 62KTS
DSHP 35KTS 43KTS 53KTS 62KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051019 1200 051020 1200 051021 1200 051022 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 19.0N 82.3W 21.6N 83.2W 25.5N 83.1W 30.5N 80.9W
BAMM 19.3N 82.7W 21.1N 84.2W 23.4N 84.6W 25.9N 83.6W
A98E 16.5N 81.5W 17.0N 80.3W 19.9N 78.7W 18.5N 80.1W
LBAR 20.3N 83.6W 24.3N 82.9W 29.2N 79.6W 33.4N 71.1W
SHIP 72KTS 85KTS 90KTS 86KTS
DSHP 72KTS 85KTS 90KTS 68KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.4N LONCUR = 79.8W DIRCUR = 190DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 17.6N LONM12 = 79.6W DIRM12 = 206DEG SPDM12 = 3KT
LATM24 = 17.3N LONM24 = 79.2W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 35NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1000MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 275NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 40NM RD34NW = 0NM


For those interested in the BAM models here is the 12:00z run.

[CHRISTY]

can someone post a link... thanks

[wxcrazytwo]

english please..

[cinlfla]

Luis, do you have a visual map for those plots? I went to netweather but the models are not updating. I refreshed and still no updates.

[curtadams]

Seems the models are totally useless at the present. Wilma's motion is being driven by the combination of very dry air to the NW and very moist air to the SE (plus a wave now approaching from the E). So all the convection (and there's a lot) is SE and she's being sucked that way hard. That plus the overall tropical push to the west is sending her south. Since the models all show her heading W or NW, they clearly can't account for the humidity differential. I recall Katrina was similar in that she kept heading SW toward moist air while the models insisted she was going to go due W. Until that dry air goes away the models are going to be missing a critical aspect of Wilma's steering and so we may as well ignore them.