Wilma,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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cycloneye
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#41 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 17, 2005 7:51 am

cinlfla wrote:Luis, do you have a visual map for those plots? I went to netweather but the models are not updating. I refreshed and still no updates.


Our friend skeetobite for sure will post the latest graphic of this 12:00z run soon.
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#42 Postby El Nino » Mon Oct 17, 2005 7:56 am

-89° top clouds ? :eek:

Can someone say what's the coldest temperature ever reported ? I don't think Rita registered that !
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#43 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Oct 17, 2005 7:58 am

A question comes to mind, will the NHC use the 45 knots estimated by Dvorak, or the 35 knots estimated by BAM, or will they blend them and use 40 knots?
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#44 Postby myred » Mon Oct 17, 2005 7:58 am

Holy Crap!! It has a Name!!


Yes it does have a name... This is my 75 post. Been on the board since 93. I have a little catching up to do.
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#45 Postby Amanzi » Mon Oct 17, 2005 8:03 am

myred wrote:
Holy Crap!! It has a Name!!


Yes it does have a name... This is my 75 post. Been on the board since 93. I have a little catching up to do.


I think you mean since 17 Sep 2003 :wink:



I think this is going to be a nail biting week with the models doing all sorts of flip flops before all is said and done. By the end of this season the poor guys over at the NHC are going to be bald. :eek:
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#46 Postby texasweatherwatcher » Mon Oct 17, 2005 8:13 am

Image
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#47 Postby inotherwords » Mon Oct 17, 2005 8:13 am

curtadams wrote:Seems the models are totally useless at the present. Wilma's motion is being driven by the combination of very dry air to the NW and very moist air to the SE (plus a wave now approaching from the E). So all the convection (and there's a lot) is SE and she's being sucked that way hard. That plus the overall tropical push to the west is sending her south. Since the models all show her heading W or NW, they clearly can't account for the humidity differential. I recall Katrina was similar in that she kept heading SW toward moist air while the models insisted she was going to go due W. Until that dry air goes away the models are going to be missing a critical aspect of Wilma's steering and so we may as well ignore them.

Very interesting curt, do you have any opinions about where this might be headed?

I'm still hoping for a direct hit on the Yucatan before it gets too organized, and then dissipation. But then I'm an optimist who is right in the sights of the GFDL as we type. 8-)
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#48 Postby Trader Ron » Mon Oct 17, 2005 8:29 am

Dang..

Right into Punta Gorda again?
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#49 Postby tracyswfla » Mon Oct 17, 2005 8:31 am

Trader Ron wrote:Dang..

Right into Punta Gorda again?


Isn't the Bamm only good in the deep tropics?
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#50 Postby SkeetoBite » Mon Oct 17, 2005 8:34 am

cycloneye wrote:
cinlfla wrote:Luis, do you have a visual map for those plots? I went to netweather but the models are not updating. I refreshed and still no updates.


Our friend skeetobite for sure will post the latest graphic of this 12:00z run soon.


Asleep at the switch...

These models are always available via our home page if I forget to post them here.

Image
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#51 Postby cinlfla » Mon Oct 17, 2005 8:35 am

Ahh, Thanks for posting the models.
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#52 Postby El Nino » Mon Oct 17, 2005 8:37 am

I suppose the A98E guys had a bad night :lol:

More to the East again ... Definitely don't write off Tampa.
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#53 Postby Weatherfreak14 » Mon Oct 17, 2005 8:37 am

Thanks for the models.

BTW CNN news says that Wilma will go where rita went. TX and LA. :?:
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#54 Postby CHRISTY » Mon Oct 17, 2005 8:39 am

WOW!what a change maybe they will shift even more right...
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#55 Postby skysummit » Mon Oct 17, 2005 8:39 am

Weatherfreak14 wrote:Thanks for the models.

BTW CNN news says that Wilma will go where rita went. TX and LA. :?:


I believe CNN has lost their mind. I wonder what they have to support that statement.
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#56 Postby chadtm80 » Mon Oct 17, 2005 8:39 am

Shifted way back west huh/ :coaster: :coaster:
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#57 Postby cjrciadt » Mon Oct 17, 2005 8:40 am

WFTV here showed two "potential tracks" after the 5 day cone:
1 going to Corpus Christi
1 going to Panama City
That is how you lose creditability!!!!!111 :grrr:
Also MSNBC showed the 0600 models runs for the first time!!!!!!!1
Last edited by cjrciadt on Mon Oct 17, 2005 8:45 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#58 Postby Myersgirl » Mon Oct 17, 2005 8:42 am

Our local met says all the computer models have this going into the yucatan, not a concern for us in Southwest Florida
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#59 Postby skysummit » Mon Oct 17, 2005 8:43 am

Myersgirl wrote:Our local met says all the computer models have this going into the yucatan, not a concern for us in Southwest Florida


...and that is how you REALLY lose creditability! What an insane and irresponsible statement by that met.
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#60 Postby El Nino » Mon Oct 17, 2005 8:43 am

I have a baaaaad feeling about this ...
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