Wilma,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[jax]

everybody loves a 8-10 day forcast...
all we know now is that the strom will
still be in the NW Carib in three days...

[skysummit]

What are the cold fronts supposed to do this week. I haven't had a chance to look at any of that.

[Aquawind]

Looking at the early visable it looks like the center is located well under the convection/CDO..Notice the moisture feed comming in from the NW.. where the dry air push has been keeping it in check..

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

Not so dry anymore..

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconuswv.html

Paul

[jax]

What are the cold fronts supposed to do this week. I haven't had a chance to look at any of that.

actually... the possible front that will determine the direction of
Wilma is about 6 to 7 days away... we have to wait a few days
for them to get a handle on the fronts... Looks like the earliest
possible CONUS landfall would be Monday of next week... possibly
a few days later than that...

[skysummit]

What are the cold fronts supposed to do this week. I haven't had a chance to look at any of that.

actually... the possible front that will determine the direction of
Wilma is about 6 to 7 days away... we have to wait a few days
for them to get a handle on the fronts... Looks like the earliest
possible CONUS landfall would be Monday of next week... possibly
a few days later than that...

Ok...thanks Jax. I knew there was another front coming down, I just didn't when it was suppposed to make it.

[no advance]

Possible cat 5. It is possible says JoE B. Morning essay. Still just a minumal ts and the guy puts it on the line. He mentioned the storm because of it being so strong should break the ridge and move NE Personally I think this could be a very bad situation. Not what we need.

[Brent]

What are the cold fronts supposed to do this week. I haven't had a chance to look at any of that.

We're expecting one here on Saturday... moisture appears non-existent though.

[cjrciadt]

The track so far has spelled a N.
All the cable networks "ramping up" their coverage of Wilma.

[HouTXmetro]

[Brent]

This is ridiclous.

Ugh.

[inotherwords]

The track so far has spelled a N.
All the cable networks "ramping up" their coverage of Wilma.

Maybe the "N" is for "Nick at Nite." Wilma is holding us hostage until we broadcast reruns of The Flintstones 24/7.

[ronjon]

What are the cold fronts supposed to do this week. I haven't had a chance to look at any of that.

actually... the possible front that will determine the direction of
Wilma is about 6 to 7 days away... we have to wait a few days
for them to get a handle on the fronts... Looks like the earliest
possible CONUS landfall would be Monday of next week... possibly
a few days later than that...

Ok...thanks Jax. I knew there was another front coming down, I just didn't when it was suppposed to make it.

Actually the 06Z GFDL has a 103 kt major hurricane bearing down on Tampa Bay (about 100 miles SW) at 8 AM Saturday Morning. Look for this storm to rapidly accelerate once the trough starts influence it on Friday. This will be a weekend event for the eastern GOM.


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[inotherwords]

What are the cold fronts supposed to do this week. I haven't had a chance to look at any of that.

actually... the possible front that will determine the direction of
Wilma is about 6 to 7 days away... we have to wait a few days
for them to get a handle on the fronts... Looks like the earliest
possible CONUS landfall would be Monday of next week... possibly
a few days later than that...

Ok...thanks Jax. I knew there was another front coming down, I just didn't when it was suppposed to make it.

Actually the 06Z GFDL has a 103 kt major hurricane bearing down on Tampa Bay (about 100 miles SW) at 8 AM Saturday Morning. Look for this storm to rapidly accelerate once the trough starts influence it on Friday. This will be a weekend event for the eastern GOM.


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

100 miles southwest of Tampa Bay is not Tampa Bay. It's more like Englewood or North Port.

Central coastal Florida is a lot more than Tampa.

[El Nino]

OMG, they really have faith in their model at LBAR ? How is it possible to publish such a fast track ? I don't want to underestimate their job, but this is the last path I would think about

[Brent]

The 12z models shifted well to the RIGHT... surprise, surprise.

[ronjon]

What are the cold fronts supposed to do this week. I haven't had a chance to look at any of that.

actually... the possible front that will determine the direction of
Wilma is about 6 to 7 days away... we have to wait a few days
for them to get a handle on the fronts... Looks like the earliest
possible CONUS landfall would be Monday of next week... possibly
a few days later than that...

Ok...thanks Jax. I knew there was another front coming down, I just didn't when it was suppposed to make it.

Actually the 06Z GFDL has a 103 kt major hurricane bearing down on Tampa Bay (about 100 miles SW) at 8 AM Saturday Morning. Look for this storm to rapidly accelerate once the trough starts influence it on Friday. This will be a weekend event for the eastern GOM.


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

100 miles southwest of Tampa Bay is not Tampa Bay. It's more like Englewood or North Port.

Central coastal Florida is a lot more than Tampa.

I didn't say 100 miles south of Tampa Bay - I said SW. Aka, in the GOM. Simply extrapolating out its movement NE say the next 12 hours after 8 AM Saturday puts it on the coast in the vicinity of Tampa Bay - according to the GFDL model (one of the best!)

[tracyswfla]

Holy Cannoli it's coming right for us!

[Weatherboy1]

I think what people really need to remember here is climatology. This late in the season, the chance of a storm tracking like Irene (1999), Michelle (2001), etc. is MUCH more likely than anything else. Troughs tend to dig a lot farther south, storms tend to get pulled N, then NE and even ENE, etc. In my view, this is a likely Peninsular FL storm ... or even one that could pass S of the peninsula entirely. The only other scenario I see is something Mitch-like (1998 - tracking-wise NOT intensity-wise), where the ridge stays strong enough to just shove this thing into Central America where it pretty much dies or maybe eventually gets pulled N and NE as a minimal storm. I see virtually no chance of Wilma striking the upper gulf coast or anywhere N of say, the FL big bend. Just one educated amateur's opinion, of course, but that's what I see.

-Mike

[tracyswfla]

What are the cold fronts supposed to do this week. I haven't had a chance to look at any of that.

actually... the possible front that will determine the direction of
Wilma is about 6 to 7 days away... we have to wait a few days
for them to get a handle on the fronts... Looks like the earliest
possible CONUS landfall would be Monday of next week... possibly
a few days later than that...

Ok...thanks Jax. I knew there was another front coming down, I just didn't when it was suppposed to make it.

Actually the 06Z GFDL has a 103 kt major hurricane bearing down on Tampa Bay (about 100 miles SW) at 8 AM Saturday Morning. Look for this storm to rapidly accelerate once the trough starts influence it on Friday. This will be a weekend event for the eastern GOM.


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

100 miles southwest of Tampa Bay is not Tampa Bay. It's more like Englewood or North Port.

Central coastal Florida is a lot more than Tampa.

I didn't say 100 miles south of Tampa Bay - I said SW. Aka, in the GOM. Simply extrapolating out its movement NE say the next 12 hours after 8 AM Saturday puts it on the coast in the vicinity of Tampa Bay - according to the GFDL model (one of the best!)

Total Est. Distance: 125.69 miles Distance from Tampa to Ft. Myers.

[Trader Ron]

:eek: Holy Cannoli it's coming right for us!

Just the On Crack LBAR, has Wilma coming at us. Three point to the Tampa Vicinity.