Wilma,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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tracyswfla
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#81 Postby tracyswfla » Mon Oct 17, 2005 9:29 am

Trader Ron wrote:
tracyswfla wrote::eek: Holy Cannoli it's coming right for us! :eek:


Just the On Crack LBAR, has Wilma coming at us. Three point to the Tampa Vicinity.


I know..... but I would prefer NONE coming towards our neck of the woods. Or anybody elses for that matter!
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#82 Postby tracyswfla » Mon Oct 17, 2005 9:29 am

Trader Ron wrote:
tracyswfla wrote::eek: Holy Cannoli it's coming right for us! :eek:


Just the On Crack LBAR, has Wilma coming at us. Three point to the Tampa Vicinity.


I know..... but I would prefer NONE coming towards our neck of the woods. Or anybody elses for that matter!
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#83 Postby ronjon » Mon Oct 17, 2005 9:30 am

The GFDL model is a good model but nobody can say exactly where it will make landfall 5 days out. The entire west coast of FL is under the gun with Wilma. Remember, the strongest part of the storm will be just to the SE of where the center comes ashore. Wherever this storm makes landfall, if it is indeed a CAT 3, expect storm tidal surges of 10-15 feet from where the center makes landfall well south perhaps as far as 100-150 miles. :grr:
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#84 Postby wxman57 » Mon Oct 17, 2005 9:33 am

ronjon wrote:The GFDL model is a good model but nobody can say exactly where it will make landfall 5 days out. The entire west coast of FL is under the gun with Wilma. Remember, the strongest part of the storm will be just to the SE of where the center comes ashore. Wherever this storm makes landfall, if it is indeed a CAT 3, expect storm tidal surges of 10-15 feet from where the center makes landfall well south perhaps as far as 100-150 miles. :grr:


I definitely agree that anywhere on the Fl Peninsula is under the gun, potentially. However, if it is a Cat 3, then the storm surge in bays could be a lot higher than 10-15 feet. Closer to 20-25 feet in Tampa Bay. But I think it should be experiencing increasing shear as it turns, so a well-organized Cat 3 seems unlikely.
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#85 Postby skysummit » Mon Oct 17, 2005 9:34 am

ronjon wrote: The entire west coast of FL is under the gun with Wilma.


With the SLIGHT chance of it still making its way across to the west gulf, I'd say the entire gulf is still under the gun, and nothing will be known for a while, but I do believe the west coast of Florida is at the greatest risk.
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#86 Postby inotherwords » Mon Oct 17, 2005 9:36 am

tracyswfla wrote:
Trader Ron wrote:
tracyswfla wrote::eek: Holy Cannoli it's coming right for us! :eek:


Just the On Crack LBAR, has Wilma coming at us. Three point to the Tampa Vicinity.


I know..... but I would prefer NONE coming towards our neck of the woods. Or anybody elses for that matter!


I would not worry too much yet. These models have been all over the place in the last 24 hours and this will probably continue for a while. The GFDL was hard into Yucatan just a few hours ago, now it's aiming right for us. WTF is with that.
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#87 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 17, 2005 9:38 am

As I said early in this thread a TS warning was needed for Nicaragua and Honduras and now they have it.
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#88 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Oct 17, 2005 9:42 am

It seems the NHC is swimming in unknown waters.
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#89 Postby Anonymous » Mon Oct 17, 2005 9:43 am

wxman57 wrote:
ronjon wrote:The GFDL model is a good model but nobody can say exactly where it will make landfall 5 days out. The entire west coast of FL is under the gun with Wilma. Remember, the strongest part of the storm will be just to the SE of where the center comes ashore. Wherever this storm makes landfall, if it is indeed a CAT 3, expect storm tidal surges of 10-15 feet from where the center makes landfall well south perhaps as far as 100-150 miles. :grr:


I definitely agree that anywhere on the Fl Peninsula is under the gun, potentially. However, if it is a Cat 3, then the storm surge in bays could be a lot higher than 10-15 feet. Closer to 20-25 feet in Tampa Bay. But I think it should be experiencing increasing shear as it turns, so a well-organized Cat 3 seems unlikely.


Exactly what I was thinking.
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#90 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 17, 2005 9:44 am

HURAKAN wrote:It seems the NHC is swimming in unknown waters.


What do you mean by that Sandy?
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#91 Postby x-y-no » Mon Oct 17, 2005 9:46 am

Wow ... things got a heck of a lot less certain overnight, didn't they?

If forced to commit, I'd still put my money on the Florida peninsula, with the Tampa to Ft. Myer's area being highest probability.
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#92 Postby no advance » Mon Oct 17, 2005 9:49 am

Wind shear should be minumal if the storm is moving NE rapidly. It would be following the flow. Agree?
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#93 Postby Trader Ron » Mon Oct 17, 2005 9:49 am

~Floydbuster wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
ronjon wrote:The GFDL model is a good model but nobody can say exactly where it will make landfall 5 days out. The entire west coast of FL is under the gun with Wilma. Remember, the strongest part of the storm will be just to the SE of where the center comes ashore. Wherever this storm makes landfall, if it is indeed a CAT 3, expect storm tidal surges of 10-15 feet from where the center makes landfall well south perhaps as far as 100-150 miles. :grr:


I definitely agree that anywhere on the Fl Peninsula is under the gun, potentially. However, if it is a Cat 3, then the storm surge in bays could be a lot higher than 10-15 feet. Closer to 20-25 feet in Tampa Bay. But I think it should be experiencing increasing shear as it turns, so a well-organized Cat 3 seems unlikely.


Exactly what I was thinking.


Wouldn't Wilma have to be a Cat 4 or 5 for Tampa Bay to experience a 20-25 foot storm surge? Especially if she's moving at a fast clip. Of course nobody knows how fast she will be moving at landfall.
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Re: BIG SHIFT WEST? 06 Models

#94 Postby cajungal » Mon Oct 17, 2005 9:49 am

HouTXmetro wrote:Image
Hopefully it will go to the Yucatan and die! Wilma go back to Bedrock with Barney! And bring on Fall!
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#95 Postby Typhoon_Willie » Mon Oct 17, 2005 9:51 am

You mean Fred I think, not Barney!
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Re: BIG SHIFT WEST? 06 Models

#96 Postby skysummit » Mon Oct 17, 2005 9:51 am

cajungal wrote:
HouTXmetro wrote:Image
Hopefully it will go to the Yucatan and die! Wilma go back to Bedrock with Barney! And bring on Fall!


CG...those are the old models. The 12z's are out and they're back toward FL.
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#97 Postby floridahurricaneguy » Mon Oct 17, 2005 9:52 am

Last post isnt right is it? I thought most models switched back to tampa?

Matt
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#98 Postby SouthFloridawx » Mon Oct 17, 2005 9:56 am

I certainly hope this is not the case I have relatives there....

Image
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#99 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Mon Oct 17, 2005 9:58 am

I Never gave in to the West BS...Been with FL the Whole time and pts further east...Got that sick feeling in my gut too..Thats never good..
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#100 Postby SouthFloridawx » Mon Oct 17, 2005 9:59 am

maybe it will run into central america before it gets too organized.... I know that they would have flooding rains but, it would be the least amount of destruction before it gets any stronger.
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