An open thread to Floridians

[Amanzi]

Quick question. If a cane landfalls on the west coast of FL, could there be a potential surge on the east coast if it crosses the peninsular? Reason I ask is because Im on a barrier island and the intracoastal is in my back yard, and the ocean is one road in front of me... add in the fact that Im only 3ft elevation and well... guess im just wondering if there could be surge impacts from a fairly strong west coast crosser.

[bobbutts]

A few common rules to go by:
Hide from the winds, run from the water.
Prepare for one category higher than forecast and assume a direct hit if you are in the cone

And the Katrina lesson:
If the storm is cat 5 anywhere near landfall time prepare for 30' or more of surge, which translates to get the hell out of the way for most of the population here on the gulf.

That's the new one for me.. my 16' elevation seems much lower after watching cat 3? katrina make landfall.

[seaswing]

I haven't really been here in a few days and I see this thread! are we really, seriously, under the gun of Wilma for this weekend????? I am shocked! Everyone speaks as though it is imminent! seems the consenus is that she will be big and she will be bad! Derek says a 4???

[inotherwords]

It is not imminent, there is plenty of track uncertainty, the models are all over the place, and the intensity is still unpredictable.

In other words, we are still firmly in Bear Watch.

[caneman]

Quick question. If a cane landfalls on the west coast of FL, could there be a potential surge on the east coast if it crosses the peninsular? Reason I ask is because Im on a barrier island and the intracoastal is in my back yard, and the ocean is one road in front of me... add in the fact that Im only 3ft elevation and well... guess im just wondering if there could be surge impacts from a fairly strong west coast crosser.

Yes Amanzi you could be. We got some flooding from the back lash of Jeanne as it exited just North of us in Pinellas County.

[bobbutts]

I haven't really been here in a few days and I see this thread! are we really, seriously, under the gun of Wilma for this weekend????? I am shocked! Everyone speaks as though it is imminent! seems the consenus is that she will be big and she will be bad! Derek says a 4???

I'm not buying it.. but seems like in the long term I'm almost always wrong. I'd say it's way too early to call it imminent for sure though.

[ladygatorslayer]

Quick question. If a cane landfalls on the west coast of FL, could there be a potential surge on the east coast if it crosses the peninsular? Reason I ask is because Im on a barrier island and the intracoastal is in my back yard, and the ocean is one road in front of me... add in the fact that Im only 3ft elevation and well... guess im just wondering if there could be surge impacts from a fairly strong west coast crosser.

Yes Amanzi you could be. We got some flooding from the back lash of Jeanne as it exited just North of us in Pinellas County.

I'm to the North of you in Pasco. Jeanne caused flooding at the Marina my Husband works at. Also, tore up 3 docks.

I got the white page when hitting submit, so I'll also add that the Howard Franklin bridge got a substantial storm surge from Frances. I was at my Brothers in St. Pete and got stuck on the bridge for a good hour on my way back home. All but 1 of the North bound lanes had to be shut down due to the water.

[gtalum]

I'm not buying it.. but seems like in the long term I'm almost always wrong. I'd say it's way too early to call it imminent for sure though.

FWIW, I'm with you. I'm not buying the Tampa bay scenario. Then again I'm a complete amateur and I don't know what I'm talking about anyway!

That said, I'm making the usual last-minute touches to my preparations just in case.

[EDR1222]

Maybe if this things stays where it is at long enough, it will get pushed to the Northeast well south of Florida. Although none of the models are trending that way right now. Lets keep our fingers crossed.

[jdray]

Quick question. If a cane landfalls on the west coast of FL, could there be a potential surge on the east coast if it crosses the peninsular? Reason I ask is because Im on a barrier island and the intracoastal is in my back yard, and the ocean is one road in front of me... add in the fact that Im only 3ft elevation and well... guess im just wondering if there could be surge impacts from a fairly strong west coast crosser.

Depends on the angle/eyewall placement to you.

Short answer, yes, very possible indeed.
Many hurricanes that have come from the big bend area/Tampa to here have caused minor storm surges as well due to the topography here. The storm in 1896 came through Cedar Key and casued flooding/surge.

The one in September 1848 hit near Tampa, came out near Cape Canaveral and caused good flooding in St Augustine.

[Wacahootaman]

Well, the dry air to the North and NW of Wilma has got to change if Wilma is going to move that way and become a major hurricane.

I am thinking that it is possible that it stay away from it and head NE over eastern Cuba and the southern Bahamas then out to sea.

Hope so for Floridas sake.

[rainydaze]

Hurricane Irene (1999) is another "Charley like" example for a Florida October hurricane...although at a much lesser intensity. Below is an excerpt from the NHC summary archive of Hurricane Irene in October of 1999. It echos exactly the sentiments of the dhweather's concerns...except 5 years earlier with Irene.

Some residents of southeast Florida expressed displeasure with the NWS forecasts. Although a tropical storm warning was issued for a portion of southeast Florida (meaning sustained winds between 39 and 73 mph) as indicated in Table 3, and torrential rains of 10 to 20 inches with locally higher amounts were forecast, some residents, especially in southeast Florida claimed that such conditions were "unexpected" or "surprising". There is an apparent disconnect between an accurate forecast issued some 36 hours in advance and a public perception of "surprise". The remedial challenge in this case appears to be related to communications and not to the forecast. The combined resources of NWS, the emergency management community and the local media apparently did not adequately convey the message to the public that: (a) track forecasts are not exact; (b) hurricanes are not a point but cover a broad area; and (c) serious effects usually extend for hundreds of miles from the center. Instead, some residents, as well as isolated TV reporting, focused on the center of Irene.

Indeed, the center of Irene was forecast to move along the west coast of Florida as indicated by most of the reliable and state-of-the-art track models shown in Fig. 4a. Instead, the center of Irene kept moving toward the north-northeast. The NHC nevertheless factored uncertainties into its forecast advisories and issued warnings appropriately as shown in Fig. 4b.

[CentralFlGal]

We can play it on the blue tarps.

[tracyswfla]

I am sick with the new trends of the models..... !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1

[kranki]

Well, I have been living ALL summer prepped for a cane. So, I don't have much to do if this thing clobbers us. (Unfortunately for me, I like the scenario of it following the straits rather than hitting Tampa where my kids live. I am much better prepared than they are having now experienced about 10 of these things although never above cat 1/2 since we moved down here. Anyway, as always, it will be interesting and I will probably be here for it.

[Windtalker1]

I really believe the models are onto something by turning Wilma toward South Florida. I do believe that the big cold front coming down into the gulf by Thursday will force Wilma onto a more eastly direction. The high over South Florida is starting to sink South....the winds were NE yesterday, ENE this morning and now on a more easterly flow. Only time will tell and the time tells me Monroe/Collier County line.

[MomH]

I have decided that unless they start talking a cat 5 I won’t leave my house here on the Central Florida Ridge. And -- only then, if I leave 3 or 4 days in advance.

Please anyone who is leaving the West Coast remember --

US 75 is really, really busy even at normal times and is often “grid-locked” around Ocala.
US 4 is death waiting to happen at any time IMHO.
State RD 27 is stop and go traffic, very busy, and is always the slowest part of our trips between Sebring and GA.

I can, with some certainty, predict that 75, 27, and 4 are going to be a repeat of traffic leaving the Galveston/Houston area for Rita. If you don’t leave early you may be sitting on a Highway during a storm.

If I ever decided to leave, I would do so very early and try to obtain as many local county maps as possible. I’d rather be headed north in stop and go traffic along a county road than not moving at all.

For those of you from Bradenton south, you might be better served hunkering down along the ridge (Lake Placid, Sebring, Avon Park, Winter Haven, Haines City, Lake Wales).

This is a list of motels I know about in my area -- there are more but I do not know anything about them. PM me if you want more numbers. No guarantees for any, I haven't stayed in them.

ALL AREA CODES ARE 863

BUDGET INN 385-8901 1-800-284-7666 SEBRING
COMFORT LODGE 382-1148 SEBRING
*ECONO LODGE OF AP-SEB 453-2000
*INN ON THE LAKES 471-9400 SEBRING
KENILWORTH LODGE 385-0111 SEBRING http://www.kenilworthlodge.com
OAK TREE INN 453-3165 oaktreeinnfl@yahoo.com AVON PARK
QUALITY INN & SUITES 385-4500 SEBRING
RAMADA INN 465-3133 LAKE PLACID
*SUNSET BEACH MOTEL 385-6129 SEBRING

* These are directly on lakes, you might want to ask how they faired last year.

Praying no one needs this post.
MomH

[gtalum]

US 75 is really, really busy even at normal times and is often “grid-locked” around Ocala.
US 4 is death waiting to happen at any time IMHO.
State RD 27 is stop and go traffic, very busy, and is always the slowest part of our trips between Sebring and GA.

Good info, but it's actually I-75, I-4, and US-27.

[jjfl]

Curious question.....I am used to watching and preparing for hurricanes coming from the east. (live in Port Saint Lucie, FL) If major hurricane hits the west coast and crosses over the state, what conditions would you expect over here on our side. Do all of you west coasters put up shutters and such for east coast landfalling canes???

[Windsong]

Quick question. If a cane landfalls on the west coast of FL, could there be a potential surge on the east coast if it crosses the peninsular? Reason I ask is because Im on a barrier island and the intracoastal is in my back yard, and the ocean is one road in front of me... add in the fact that Im only 3ft elevation and well... guess im just wondering if there could be surge impacts from a fairly strong west coast crosser.

I live on a barrier island adjacent to Cape Canaveral. Last year when Charlie came on shore south of the expected landfall, the EOC decided to call for evacuation here. At that point, we were only a few hours away from impact and most people were still at work or school. Needless to say, leaving was not possible for most people at that point. This time, I'll be ready to go. I live between 2 large rivers at 13 inces above sea leve, and even though we escaped the flooding last year, I will not let that lull me into being complacent.


Windsong