Wilma,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[CourierPR]

A sharp turn to the right later is possible. If this storm continues to meander in the Caribbean steering currents could change.

[MiamiensisWx]

Check out Wilma's HUGE burst of convection...

[cjrciadt]

Check out Wilma's HUGE burst of convection...

and everything behind,it for another thread and time.

[x-y-no]

Brushing the NE tip of the Yucatan at 96 hours:



This is now a fair bit left of the 6Z track, which brushed the western tip of Cuba at about the same timeframe.

[curtadams]

Very interesting curt, do you have any opinions about where this might be headed?

I'm still hoping for a direct hit on the Yucatan before it gets too organized, and then dissipation. But then I'm an optimist who is right in the sights of the GFDL as we type.

Man, I wish I knew! I think it will stall around for a few days with the tropical moisture/dry air holding it back. After that, who knows? I figure in a day or two the models will get a grip on the system and then we'll have an idea.

[hurricanefreak1988]

Wow, there it is. History has been made! Folks, you can actually ball up the 2005 name list and throw it away, because we don't need it anymore! Brush up on your Greek letters!

[DESTRUCTION5]

Brushing the NE tip of the Yucatan at 96 hours:



This is now a fair bit left of the 6Z track, which brushed the western tip of Cuba at about the same timeframe.

Ridge breaking down though!

[floridahurricaneguy]

Almost looks though after brushing in between the two, it will go NE. Waiting for more to come out though. Deffinitely not as far left as earlier.

Matt

[WeatherEmperor]

If you think thats interesting, well get a load of this. From 96-114hrs, it turns Wilma almost due ENE. I dunno how to post pics so your gonna have to wait for x-y-no to post it.

<RICKY>

[inotherwords]

Franklin seems to question the most recent GFDL and GFS models in the 11 a.m. discussion.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 1434.shtml?

[x-y-no]

Ridge breaking down though!

Tes. It turns it NE right after this - (out to 114 hours now)

[x-y-no]

Franklin seems to question the most recent GFDL and GFS models in the 11 a.m. discussion.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 1434.shtml?

Funny, I read that the opposite way: he was tempted to go with the GFS/GFDL, but held off for the sake of continuity and because they were initialized a bit too far north.

[floridahurricaneguy]

Ridge breakign down will mean exactly what in terms of its path?

[tracyswfla]

Ridge breaking down though!

Tes. It turns it NE right after this - (out to 114 hours now)

Is this bad news for the Florida West Coast?

[WeatherEmperor]

At 132hrs, the GFS has Wilma very very close to Key West. Not kidding. x-y-no, hurry up and post that pic, boy

<RICKY>

[cjrciadt]

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv_east_loop-12.html
Is wet MJO in the Atlanitc with all the moisture even E of Wilma.

[Canelaw99]

I guess it makes sense that the longer Wilma drifts around south of FL, the further south she will be when she makes that NE turn that basically all the models predict....Gonna be a wild ride in this state this week

[x-y-no]

132 hours:



Moving ENE towards SFL and deepening ...

(OK ... repeat after me ... "it's only the GFS" )

[LAwxrgal]

Wow, according to that run, looks like the Keys get hammered, before the approach to extreme S FL. Would that be an extremely strong, deep trough that would make the storm go hard right like that?

[Brent]

Ridge breaking down though!

Tes. It turns it NE right after this - (out to 114 hours now)

Is this bad news for the Florida West Coast?

It's bad news for someone in Florida... maybe South Florida and the Keys...