Wilma,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

#141 Postby **JPmia** » Mon Oct 17, 2005 11:35 am

**that sound you just heard was me dropping my cup of coffee** im sure this will change...but the Euro is showing something similiar just furth north toward Ft. Myers/Tampa...can't wait to see the 12z run of the Euro model. Both models have been saying FL and them along with the GFDL. Hmm.

x-y-no · #142 Postby **x-y-no** » Mon Oct 17, 2005 11:35 am

144 hours:

crossing southern tip of Florida as a pretty strong hurricane.

#143 Postby **tracyswfla** » Mon Oct 17, 2005 11:37 am

OMG....

DESTRUCTION5 · #144 Postby **DESTRUCTION5** » Mon Oct 17, 2005 11:37 am

Brent wrote:
tracyswfla wrote:
x-y-no wrote:
DESTRUCTION5 wrote:
Ridge breaking down though!

Tes. It turns it NE right after this - (out to 114 hours now)

Is this bad news for the Florida West Coast?

It's bad news for someone in Florida... maybe South Florida and the Keys...

Deja Vu Michelle all over again!

hicksta · #145 Postby **hicksta** » Mon Oct 17, 2005 11:37 am

Its just one model run.

x-y-no · #146 Postby **x-y-no** » Mon Oct 17, 2005 11:37 am

Well, let's hope that doesn't verify. :eek:

Gotta duck out for a bit - back in an hour or two.

gtalum · #147 Postby **gtalum** » Mon Oct 17, 2005 11:38 am

That GFS run doesn't bode well for the GT-Miami game Saturday.

And wouldn't you know, I used Priceline to reserve my hotel room so if they cancel the game I'm out $50. :grr:

floridahurricaneguy · #148 Postby **floridahurricaneguy** » Mon Oct 17, 2005 11:38 am

Wouldnt be as much worry for those in Tampa or even Ft Myers then. Path I think will shift N.

Matt

hicksta · #149 Postby **hicksta** » Mon Oct 17, 2005 11:39 am

Aint no hurricane gonna mess with texas. We scared off Katrina,Emily and sort of Rita

Weatherfreak14 · #150 Postby **Weatherfreak14** » Mon Oct 17, 2005 11:40 am

Looks maybe in the port charollite area to me.

Weatherfreak14 · #151 Postby **Weatherfreak14** » Mon Oct 17, 2005 11:40 am

Looks maybe in the port charollite area to me.

DESTRUCTION5 · #152 Postby **DESTRUCTION5** » Mon Oct 17, 2005 11:40 am

floridahurricaneguy wrote:Wouldnt be as much worry for those in Tampa or even Ft Myers then. Path I think will shift N.

Matt

Longer it hangs down there the Further S and East it will Go...It was raining last night at the Angels game IN LA...Only tells me thins trough will be a rude one...

#153 Postby **tracyswfla** » Mon Oct 17, 2005 11:43 am

Weatherfreak14 wrote:Looks maybe in the port charollite area to me.

Port Charlotte is still recovering.. .NOT a good thing!

#154 Postby **Windtalker1** » Mon Oct 17, 2005 11:45 am

Brent wrote:
tracyswfla wrote:
x-y-no wrote:
DESTRUCTION5 wrote:
Ridge breaking down though!

Tes. It turns it NE right after this - (out to 114 hours now)

Is this bad news for the Florida West Coast?

It's bad news for someone in Florida... maybe South Florida and the Keys...

Boy this sounds familiar...oh wait, I said this last night!!! :lol:

#155 Postby **Canelaw99** » Mon Oct 17, 2005 11:47 am

x-y-no wrote:144 hours:

crossing southern tip of Florida as a pretty strong hurricane.

Yes I know it's one model run and they can shift over the next couple of days, but that one is just :eek:

for us - we'd be on the nasty side of things.

inotherwords · #156 Postby **inotherwords** » Mon Oct 17, 2005 11:47 am

x-y-no wrote:
inotherwords wrote:Franklin seems to question the most recent GFDL and GFS models in the 11 a.m. discussion.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 1434.shtml?

Funny, I read that the opposite way: he was tempted to go with the GFS/GFDL, but held off for the sake of continuity and because they were initialized a bit too far north.

He said: " WHILE IT IS
TEMPTING TO ADJUST THE TRACK TO THE RIGHT BASED ON THE RECENT
CHANGES WITH THE GFS AND GFDL MODELS...THE FACT THAT THE 6Z RUNS OF
BOTH MODELS WERE INITIALIZED A BIT TOO FAR NORTH MAY MEAN THAT THEY
ARE TOO FAST WITH THE RECURVATURE SCENARIO. FOR NOW...I HAVE MADE
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST."

To me this indicated he wasn't sure their tracks were quite accurate at that point. But you are far more experienced at this than I am, so I might have misinterpreted this.

#157 Postby **Vortex** » Mon Oct 17, 2005 11:47 am

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/PUBLIC/

southerngale · #158 Postby **southerngale** » Mon Oct 17, 2005 11:50 am

hicksta wrote:Aint no hurricane gonna mess with texas. We scared off Katrina,Emily and sort of Rita

Are you kidding me? Come look around over here! There's a good bit of Texas east of you.

hicksta · #159 Postby **hicksta** » Mon Oct 17, 2005 11:53 am

Very true, but rita hit right on the border. More to the LA side though.

#160 Postby **Blown Away** » Mon Oct 17, 2005 11:59 am

I say it is a good trend for FL not for Cuba. The longer Wilma hangs out w/o moving N the better the chance it will move NE and miss FL, not Cuba obviously. Hopefully the models will continue trending East. Most of the time it's a good thing for the models to be over your location 5 days out. The path over Cuba through the straits and avoiding FL is a common path for storms of the past. I was much more nervous when the models were putting Wilma N of the Yucatan wondering around waiting for kick to the east.

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