Wilma,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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ronjon
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#161 Postby ronjon » Mon Oct 17, 2005 12:01 pm

The GFS has a tendency to break down ridges much too quickly - while it's entirely possible for a radical east turn - I don't see the pattern as of yet that would cause the Atlantic Ridge to completely collaspe. I think a more gradual turn to the NE similar to the GFDL is more likely.
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artist
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#162 Postby artist » Mon Oct 17, 2005 12:03 pm

Under the weather
From: dervon fowler <reggaeweather at yahoo.com>
Date: Mon, 17 Oct 2005 08:22:31 -0700 (PDT)

The rain has been going now for more than three days
non-stop we are now getting reports of flooding from
all over the island. Rivers have overflowed their
banks and landslides are beginning to occur in many
parts of the island, thankfully there have not been
any related deaths reported. Can anyone out there tell
us where wilma's heading? No one at the National
Hurricane Center seems to know.

Bless up and Jah guide!


http://www.stormcarib.com

though there has been one death due to drowning from a car washed off the road.
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southerngale
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#163 Postby southerngale » Mon Oct 17, 2005 12:05 pm

hicksta wrote:Very true, but rita hit right on the border. More to the LA side though.


Obviously it would have been more devastating for more people had it hit a more populated area, like Houston, but that doesn't make it less devastating for us in Southeast Texas. It hit Texas and Louisiana. The eyewall went right over my hometown and even where I had evacuated to a little further north. Yes, it hit Texas. Drive over and look around - I've got friends and family homeless at the moment. There's always going to be a "could have been worse" scenario but to say that Texas scared off Rita is just plain ignorant.
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#164 Postby duris » Mon Oct 17, 2005 12:05 pm

gtalum wrote:That GFS run doesn't bode well for the GT-Miami game Saturday.

And wouldn't you know, I used Priceline to reserve my hotel room so if they cancel the game I'm out $50. :grr:


That's terrible. Can I trade you the $64,000 estimate for roof damage and $250,000 in lost contents due to flood from Katrina? :D
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#165 Postby thunderchief » Mon Oct 17, 2005 12:06 pm

It looks like NOGAPS is thinking south florida late in the forecast period now.
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#166 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Mon Oct 17, 2005 12:06 pm

duris wrote:
gtalum wrote:That GFS run doesn't bode well for the GT-Miami game Saturday.

And wouldn't you know, I used Priceline to reserve my hotel room so if they cancel the game I'm out $50. :grr:


That's terrible. Can I trade you the $64,000 estimate for roof damage and $250,000 in lost contents due to flood from Katrina? :D


LOL..Smarta$$...
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#167 Postby Weatherfreak14 » Mon Oct 17, 2005 12:11 pm

thunderchief wrote:It looks like NOGAPS is thinking south florida late in the forecast period now.



As usual this will probably change again. :roll:
Last edited by Weatherfreak14 on Mon Oct 17, 2005 12:12 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#168 Postby CajunMama » Mon Oct 17, 2005 12:12 pm

hicksta wrote:Very true, but rita hit right on the border. More to the LA side though.


It may have hit on the LA side but believe me, parts of east texas were just as devasted as LA.
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#169 Postby duris » Mon Oct 17, 2005 12:12 pm

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:
duris wrote:
gtalum wrote:That GFS run doesn't bode well for the GT-Miami game Saturday.

And wouldn't you know, I used Priceline to reserve my hotel room so if they cancel the game I'm out $50. :grr:


That's terrible. Can I trade you the $64,000 estimate for roof damage and $250,000 in lost contents due to flood from Katrina? :D


LOL..Smarta$$...


Moi? My post was meant entirely in jest (I do have that damage but know the original poster wasnt being insensitive), but I can tell you that the lady in our office that keeps whining about her fence being down and having to meet her adjuster while 10% of our employees lost their homes is due for a huge smackdown. And then things were so stressful for her that she was the first and only employee to quit!
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#170 Postby gtalum » Mon Oct 17, 2005 12:15 pm

My post was meant in jest too! Obviously a $50 prepaid hotel stay is no big deal to lose. :)
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#171 Postby Weatherfreak14 » Mon Oct 17, 2005 12:16 pm

It looks now wilma is starting to move due west on the floater.
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#172 Postby cjrciadt » Mon Oct 17, 2005 12:17 pm

Image
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Brent
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#173 Postby Brent » Mon Oct 17, 2005 12:18 pm

Weatherfreak14 wrote:It looks now wilma is starting to move due west on the floater.


It's about time...
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#174 Postby duris » Mon Oct 17, 2005 12:18 pm

gtalum wrote:My post was meant in jest too! Obviously a $50 prepaid hotel stay is no big deal to lose. :)


I understand and fully took it that way. As I've said before, Buffett was right-if we couldn't laugh we would all go insane.

Day 50, post-Katrina-still (reasonably) sane.
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#175 Postby tracyswfla » Mon Oct 17, 2005 12:18 pm

Brent wrote:
Weatherfreak14 wrote:It looks now wilma is starting to move due west on the floater.


It's about time...


What's that mean?
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#176 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 17, 2005 12:19 pm

The wobble watch starts. :)
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#177 Postby gtalum » Mon Oct 17, 2005 12:20 pm

cycloneye wrote:The wobble watch starts. :)


Oh Jeez.... 7 DAYS of wobble threads. I'm going to scream!
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#178 Postby MiamiensisWx » Mon Oct 17, 2005 12:21 pm

*WOBBLE WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FOR STORM2K USERS MONITORING TROPICAL STORM WILMA*

That includes me!

:)
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big NOGAPS shift...

#179 Postby Weatherboy1 » Mon Oct 17, 2005 12:21 pm

as one or two other posters here noted, the 12Z NOGAPS model has made a radical shift from the 00Z cycle. Now showing Wilma heading WNW, then NW, then N, NE, and ENE across FL late in the forecast period. In short, we now have the GFDL, GFS, and NOGAPS indicating this kind of pattern. Waiting on other 12Z models to come in, but if the UKMET shows a similar pattern, that will be three out of the major global models opting for a "recurve" scenario... one that I find highly likely given climatology.
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#180 Postby chadtm80 » Mon Oct 17, 2005 12:21 pm

southerngale wrote:
hicksta wrote:Very true, but rita hit right on the border. More to the LA side though.


Obviously it would have been more devastating for more people had it hit a more populated area, like Houston, but that doesn't make it less devastating for us in Southeast Texas. It hit Texas and Louisiana. The eyewall went right over my hometown and even where I had evacuated to a little further north. Yes, it hit Texas. Drive over and look around - I've got friends and family homeless at the moment. There's always going to be a "could have been worse" scenario but to say that Texas scared off Rita is just plain ignorant.

http://www.storm2k.nhcwx.com/cgi-bin/hw ... hwvmetric=
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