Wilma,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[CHRISTY]

[jhamps10]

Any chance that Wilma could follow a similar track to the Hurricane of Oct. 25, 1921 that affected the Tampa Bay area as the last major hurricane to hit here? Thoughts and comments welcomed.

Robert

Right now anything is possible, I do think that it COULD follow a track like this, but this is way too far out to pinpoint to a percise area. All I'm saying is that it will hit somewhere on the Florida west coast.

[CHRISTY]

[Brent]

2pm Saturday!

[Brent]

Exiting right over Palm Beach County at 8pm Saturday...

[MiamiensisWx]

Wow... the GFS above dosn't seem to weaken it much before landfall in this new run!

[CHRISTY]

actually iam thinking more like broward county....

[Opal storm]

Looking at this,I would not be suprised if the NHC shifted their track even further east tonight.

[CHRISTY]

[TS Zack]

Look at the cold weather coming South!

Bring it on!

[ronjon]

Looking at this,I would not be suprised if the NHC shifted their track even further east tonight.

Chill out folks..its still 4-5 days away. Hmmm...just this morning the model runs had it going west into the BOC..now the GFS has it turning sharply to the east over S FL. Let's see - thats a roughly 180 deg turn in what..12 hours of model runs. This is what I don't like about the Good For S--- model. It has classic instability problems swingly wildly from run to run at times. Look at the GFDL and other globals and try to sort out the big picture b4 jumping on the GFS bandwagon.

[Brent]

Look at the cold weather coming South!

Bring it on!

Oh it gets better beyond that. The 12z GFS was showing maybe record cold.

[x-y-no]

Looking at this,I would not be suprised if the NHC shifted their track even further east tonight.

Chill out folks..its still 4-5 days away. Hmmm...just this morning the model runs had it going west into the BOC..now the GFS has it turning sharply to the east over S FL. Let's see - thats a roughly 180 deg turn in what..12 hours of model runs. This is what I don't like about the Good For S--- model. It has classic instability problems swingly wildly from run to run at times. Look at the GFDL and other globals and try to sort out the big picture b4 jumping on the GFS bandwagon.

GFS never had it going into the BOC. In fact, the 6Z run was nearly identical to the 18Z run. And while the 12Z run was left of these runs, it still took the storm across the Florida peninsula.

GFDL and Euro have also been reasonably consistent in taking the storm towards Florida eventually.

The only global I recall taking it across the BOC was the UKMET for one or two runs. Maybe the NOGAPS once also.

EDIT: Excuse me ... just looked at the 0z run of the GFS, and sure enough it did take it into the BOC. I stand corrected.

[MortisFL]

Last night's 00z run of the GFS DID have it going into BOC after crashing into central america.

Looking at this,I would not be suprised if the NHC shifted their track even further east tonight.

Chill out folks..its still 4-5 days away. Hmmm...just this morning the model runs had it going west into the BOC..now the GFS has it turning sharply to the east over S FL. Let's see - thats a roughly 180 deg turn in what..12 hours of model runs. This is what I don't like about the Good For S--- model. It has classic instability problems swingly wildly from run to run at times. Look at the GFDL and other globals and try to sort out the big picture b4 jumping on the GFS bandwagon.

GFS never had it going into the BOC. In fact, the 6Z run was nearly identical to the 18Z run. And while the 12Z run was left of these runs, it still took the storm across the Florida peninsula.

GFDL and Euro have also been reasonably consistent in taking the storm towards Florida eventually.

The only global I recall taking it across the BOC was the UKMET for one or two runs. Maybe the NOGAPS once also.

[gatorcane]

what's the point of even looking at the models in this situation. So far she has done nothing that they have said (moving South today).

Nobody has any clue where this thing is going I'm afraid (I'm just taking a best guess).

That is the bottom-line.

[JPmia]

Looking at this,I would not be suprised if the NHC shifted their track even further east tonight.

Chill out folks..its still 4-5 days away. Hmmm...just this morning the model runs had it going west into the BOC..now the GFS has it turning sharply to the east over S FL. Let's see - thats a roughly 180 deg turn in what..12 hours of model runs. This is what I don't like about the Good For S--- model. It has classic instability problems swingly wildly from run to run at times. Look at the GFDL and other globals and try to sort out the big picture b4 jumping on the GFS bandwagon.

GFS never had it going into the BOC. In fact, the 6Z run was nearly identical to the 18Z run. And while the 12Z run was left of these runs, it still took the storm across the Florida peninsula.

GFDL and Euro have also been reasonably consistent in taking the storm towards Florida eventually.

The only global I recall taking it across the BOC was the UKMET for one or two runs. Maybe the NOGAPS once also.

I agree. The Euro has been consistent for the past couple of runs on a South/Central FL strike while all the other models were flipping back and forth. Now they are all coming together. Do we expect upper air data and more data included with the model runs during the next couple of days? IF so, when?

[x-y-no]

Last night's 00z run of the GFS DID have it going into BOC after crashing into central america.

Yeah ... see my edit above. I actually didn't look at the 0Z this morning.

[texasweatherwatcher]

The models look (pretty much) in agreement now, with Wilma going between Cuba and the Yucatan, and making a NE turn.

[Weatherfreak000]

It's amusing reading the responses.




The movement is sporadic. I wouldn't be surprised if it moved Southwest even more later past the next advisory and the track gets shifted back even further West into the Yucutan.


(You can disagree with the below, it's just OPINIONS. Remember that).




I feel this is the farthest most Easterly this track is gonna give, I'll be slightly consistent with the models and say it'll scrap the Yucutan and go into the Panhandle.



Or perhaps even across the Yucutan and into Alabama.




I don't know about you but I don't see this storm making a sharp east turn at all. I see it making a short gradual turn slowly into the panhandle. Residents in South Carolina should maybe watch for possible action.

[DESTRUCTION5]

It's amusing reading the responses.




The movement is sporadic. I wouldn't be surprised if it moved Southwest even more later past the next advisory and the track gets shifted back even further West into the Yucutan.


(You can disagree with the below, it's just OPINIONS. Remember that).




I feel this is the farthest most Easterly this track is gonna give, I'll be slightly consistent with the models and say it'll scrap the Yucutan and go into the Panhandle.



Or perhaps even across the Yucutan and into Alabama.




I don't know about you but I don't see this storm making a sharp east turn at all. I see it making a short gradual turn slowly into the panhandle. Residents in South Carolina should maybe watch for possible action.

Considering Albama is going to be in the 40's Sat night..I would tend to disagree...