Wilma Forecast

[jkt21787]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

This is the first time I've posted my forecast here, though I have been issuing them publicly elsewhere before now, which is why this is technically number 7 for me. I know I am conservative with intensity, however, as I clearly explain in my discussion, I leave the door open for more intensification than indicated. Comments welcome of course...

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Tropical Storm Wilma Discussion #7 4 PM CT 10/17/05

Wilma has continued to get better organized this afternoon. Recon aircraft in the storm has found a pressure of 989 mb and estimated surface winds of 50 mph, which supports recent advisories from NHC well; though the pressure was a good bit lower than estimated. There continues to be gulps of dry air and light northerly shear keeping the northern side of the system rather free from convection, but the areas near or over the center, and the southern fringe, continue with deep convection where the strongest winds remain at this time.

Wilma remains under weak steering currents and continues to drift. High Pressure should begin to move west and weakness, allowing Wilma to turn more northward with time and increase forward speed. The models are in much better agreement in the 12z and incoming 18z runs, with even the NOGAPS, a far western outlier, now indicating a situation similar to recent forecasts. This forecast will therefore remain largely unchanged through day 4. The GFS, ECMWF, CMC, and NOGAPS indicate a sharp trough moving southward by day 5, which should be enough to capture Wilma in strong westerly flow, and begin a rapid northeastward curve toward FL.

The atmosphere remains conducive for additional intensification as dry air abates and shear becomes nearly non-existent within 24 hours. Gradual intensification however is still expected within this 24 hour period and thus a hurricane is expected within this time. Afterward, gradual intensification is continued to be forecast through the Yucatan Channel, up to strong Category 2 strength. It is possible during this time, between 48 hours and 96 hours that a rapid intensification cycle occurs to bring Wilma to major hurricane status. This is not forecast as of now, but again is very possible. Once Wilma moves into the Gulf and is captured by strong westerly flow, in addition to slightly cooler SSTs and lower heat content, strength should remain steady, or a slight weakening could begin, but with Wilma remaining a category 2 hurricane or higher, depending on its exact intensity when entering the Gulf.

Early indications are that this will NOT be a major hurricane for Florida, but all interests should watch this very closely, as any hurricane or even a tropical storm for that matter, can be dangerous and life threatening. Additionally, keep in mind intensity forecasts remain extremely difficult so this information is highly subject to change.

***This is NOT an official product. As always, consult NHC or NWS forecasts as your first source of information. I am NOT a meteorologist, just an amateur.***