My thoughts on Wilma...

[Anonymous]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Here is my forecast for Wilma:::


I think South Florida might not know just what they may be in for...with a fast moving, powerful hurricane. However, the surge potential in that are is SIGNIFICANT. So, if it peaks out at 115-125 kt, as I expect...even if it weakens, you have a significant surge coming. This one needs to be taken very seriously.

[fasterdisaster]

Mike, should Miami scream their heads off?

[Anonymous]

Mike, should Miami scream their heads off?

Not really. The idea of this making landfall as a Cat 3 is very possible...but exiting as a Cat 2...I see less likely.

[Brent]

Are you predicting a Cat 5?

[SamSagnella]

Look at the color key...no, he isn't

[jasons2k]

Good call Mike, but I think it will come in further south, near Key West.

[Brent]

Look at the color key...no, he isn't

Oh I see now... LOL! I knew that color wasn't a 4...

[Fego]

Just a reminder. Do not concentrate in the eye track only, do not forget the TS wind, do not forget the rain and floods and do not forget the potential surge.

[artist]

Fego- excellent post!

[mobilebay]

it is becoming pretty clear that this is going to be a South Florida event!

[ericinmia]

Also if the GFS and UKMET and GFDL to name a couple have it their way (burger king)

Then this will cross florida at 25+mph in under 6 hours from coast to coast.
Hence, it will loose very little in orginization due to frictional effects.

[mobilebay]

Also if the GFS and UKMET and GFDL to name a couple have it their way (burger king)

Then this will cross florida at 25+mph in under 6 hours from coast to coast.
Hence, it will loose very little in orginization due to frictional effects.

hey Eric, do you have your Weather station ready to go.

[artist]

that could be good news in some ways though couldn't it? Seems the storms lately they have been most damaging have been fairly slow movers.

[tornadochaser86]

ya i dont really believe the turn will be that sharp they have it gooing almost at a 90 degree turn

[skysummit]

ya i dont really believe the turn will be that sharp they have it gooing almost at a 90 degree turn

That's probably because every model has it making that sharp turn. I was thinking yesterday that it would be more of a gradual turn just north of Tampa, but since every model is still staying consistant for the most part, I'll have to go with the sharper turn. The UKMET even has it missing Florida all together!

[johngaltfla]

If Mike would be so kind as to move that northern part of his CONE OF DEATH down south about 100 miles, I'd feel a whole lot better about his forecast.

[inotherwords]

Jeeze Mike...if your predictions pan out, this will take Wilma directly over Naples, FL..my TOWN! lol...and I just moved to the city, which means i'm in a situation for almost certain mandantory evacuation if this comes around to our area.

Kevin Cho - Naples, FL
Jr: Naples High School

Kevin, do you know what evacuation zone you're in at your new home? Might be a good time to check.

I'm in a borderline 2/3 area and am only a half mile as the crow flies from the Gulf. I don't think the entire city of Naples would need to evacuate for a 3 or less, but it's just speculation on my part. (BTW, I'm up the coast between Sarasota and Venice, so I'm under the gun right now too )

[Trader Ron]

Jeeze Mike...if your predictions pan out, this will take Wilma directly over Naples, FL..my TOWN! lol...and I just moved to the city, which means i'm in a situation for almost certain mandantory evacuation if this comes around to our area.

Kevin Cho - Naples, FL
Jr: Naples High School

If I was evacuating, i would be leaving NO LATER than Thursday.