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Matt-hurricanewatcher

#481 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Tue Oct 18, 2005 12:48 am

If the trough picks it up like the one that picked Charley up. Then Florida may get a Major hurricane.
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#482 Postby Stratosphere747 » Tue Oct 18, 2005 12:48 am

1am it acutally moved SSE by a few miles...;)
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#483 Postby Wirbelsturm » Tue Oct 18, 2005 12:49 am

Is that the GFDL? Can someone post the new run when it comes out? Thanks
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#484 Postby Brent » Tue Oct 18, 2005 12:52 am

Wirbelsturm wrote:Is that the GFDL? Can someone post the new run when it comes out? Thanks


That WAS the new run. :lol:
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#485 Postby calculatedrisk » Tue Oct 18, 2005 12:53 am

Wirbelsturm wrote:Is that the GFDL? Can someone post the new run when it comes out? Thanks


Sorry, I left the title off.
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#486 Postby Wirbelsturm » Tue Oct 18, 2005 12:55 am

How is the new run intensity-wise?
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#487 Postby Recurve » Tue Oct 18, 2005 12:59 am

Got me a bit concerned too.
Despite my nick, I hate recurving storms. Hard to escape from them in the Keys.

Sanibel, haven't seen you since....a whole alphabet ago it seems like.
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#488 Postby ericinmia » Tue Oct 18, 2005 12:59 am

Wirbelsturm wrote:How is the new run intensity-wise?

137mph winds....
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/GFDL_0z/ghmloop.html

WOW... it takes it across FL completely in under 6 hours. Such a change from what we have had the past 2 years! This is an Andrew like speed storm.

This thing would rake miami-dade, broward, west palm only counting th east coast if it crosses where the gfdl is showing. That is a lot of damage just on the east coast. Let along Naples and surrounding areas will be pummeled.
-Eric
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#489 Postby JamesFromMaine2 » Tue Oct 18, 2005 1:01 am

recon has found flight level winds of 71.2mph!
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#490 Postby artist » Tue Oct 18, 2005 1:07 am

James - I just looked at it and can't find that - which obs did you get that from?
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#491 Postby Wirbelsturm » Tue Oct 18, 2005 1:08 am

Omg, GFDL has it hitting Florida as a cat 4! Thanks for posting the link!
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#492 Postby JamesFromMaine2 » Tue Oct 18, 2005 1:10 am

0552. 1530N 07949W 01522 5094 226 059 152 152 062 01460 0000000000

and the very next set had 74.75mph at flight level
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

#493 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Tue Oct 18, 2005 1:14 am

67.27 surface....
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#494 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Tue Oct 18, 2005 1:21 am

Holy theres now a 8 degrees between the eye in the outside. Becoming stronger! 982 millibars...
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#495 Postby artist » Tue Oct 18, 2005 1:25 am

Matt - do you know where I can find the pressure guide as to how strong it will get at certain pressures? I have seen it before and can't find it anymore.
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#496 Postby mobilebay » Tue Oct 18, 2005 1:26 am

yes . That is a pretty steady pressure drop!
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#497 Postby ericinmia » Tue Oct 18, 2005 1:36 am

artist wrote:Matt - do you know where I can find the pressure guide as to how strong it will get at certain pressures? I have seen it before and can't find it anymore.


The problem with that will be that the entire basin is at a very unusal low pressure mean. That is why Wilma has such a low pressure but the winds aren't there to match. GRADIENTS ARE EVERYTHING.

Look at Andrew. Pressure wasn't lowest ever... 922. Barely was low enough for cat5. But it was well into cat5 in winds. Since there was a VERY strong high pressure ridge to its north creating a strong gradient.
-Eric
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#498 Postby mobilebay » Tue Oct 18, 2005 1:38 am

ericinmia wrote:
artist wrote:Matt - do you know where I can find the pressure guide as to how strong it will get at certain pressures? I have seen it before and can't find it anymore.


The problem with that will be that the entire basin is at a very unusal low pressure mean. That is why Wilma has such a low pressure but the winds aren't there to match. GRADIENTS ARE EVERYTHING.

Look at Andrew. Pressure wasn't lowest ever... 922. Barely was low enough for cat5. But it was well into cat5 in winds. Since there was a VERY strong high pressure ridge to its north creating a strong gradient.
-Eric

Well said Eric. This was also discussed in the 11 PM package from NHC.
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#499 Postby ericinmia » Tue Oct 18, 2005 1:38 am

New FSU mm5 is showing same thing as 0z gfs, gfdl, ukmet...

Image

That is run at the 54k resolution.. the 18k is running right now, so we shall see what it comes up with different run in at closer resolution.
-Eric
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#500 Postby artist » Tue Oct 18, 2005 1:41 am

thanks Eric
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