Wilma,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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Stratosphere747
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#501 Postby Stratosphere747 » Tue Oct 18, 2005 1:42 am

Latest GFS has it just going through the straits and out to sea.
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ericinmia
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#502 Postby ericinmia » Tue Oct 18, 2005 1:44 am

artist wrote:thanks Eric


no problem...

Here i found this for ya:
http://www.islandnet.com/~see/weather/e ... afsimp.htm
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#503 Postby artist » Tue Oct 18, 2005 1:46 am

thanks again Eric! that was it. :D
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JamesFromMaine2
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#504 Postby JamesFromMaine2 » Tue Oct 18, 2005 1:48 am

GFDL now brings Wilma to 925mb pressure and 151mph in 42hours!
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#505 Postby mobilebay » Tue Oct 18, 2005 1:49 am

Stratosphere747 wrote:Latest GFS has it just going through the straits and out to sea.

after further review... looks like it does make South Florida landfall briefly on the 00Z run. :D
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JamesFromMaine2
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#506 Postby JamesFromMaine2 » Tue Oct 18, 2005 1:53 am

Image
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#507 Postby artist » Tue Oct 18, 2005 1:55 am

which models were best with Katrina and Rita??
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Stratosphere747
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#508 Postby Stratosphere747 » Tue Oct 18, 2005 1:58 am

mobilebay wrote:
Stratosphere747 wrote:Latest GFS has it just going through the straits and out to sea.

after further review... looks like it does make South Florida landfall briefly on the 00Z run. :D


Boy you are getting the reading glasses out now...;)

The only positive is that the models seem to be trending more towards a southern solution.
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#509 Postby JamesFromMaine2 » Tue Oct 18, 2005 1:59 am

artist wrote:which models were best with Katrina and Rita??


GFDL
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#510 Postby artist » Tue Oct 18, 2005 1:59 am

looks like Palm Beach county may just be one of the unlucky ones - hope they move alot further south! :eek:
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#511 Postby mikemiller18 » Tue Oct 18, 2005 2:00 am

yeah, GFDL shows it going over my house in west palm.
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#512 Postby JamesFromMaine2 » Tue Oct 18, 2005 2:02 am

GFDL also develops it into a 151mph hurricane in 42 hours! lol
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#513 Postby artist » Tue Oct 18, 2005 2:05 am

not a pretty picture - guess the shutters will have to go up if this continues. ughhh.
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#514 Postby artist » Tue Oct 18, 2005 2:07 am

well - off to bed, the plane is going home too! Hope we will somehow wake up to better news. Night all!
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#515 Postby T'Bonz » Tue Oct 18, 2005 2:50 am

artist wrote:looks like Palm Beach county may just be one of the unlucky ones - hope they move alot further south! :eek:


The hell you say. :lol: No thanks!
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#516 Postby Thunder44 » Tue Oct 18, 2005 2:58 am

Stratosphere747 wrote:Latest GFS has it just going through the straits and out to sea.


Looks more like an extreme South Florida hit, before going out to sea.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 6_120l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 6_126l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 6_132l.gif
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#517 Postby jlauderdal » Tue Oct 18, 2005 4:35 am

Thunder44 wrote:
Stratosphere747 wrote:Latest GFS has it just going through the straits and out to sea.


Looks more like an extreme South Florida hit, before going out to sea.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 6_120l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 6_126l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 6_132l.gif



being in the direct path on a 5 day forecast generally is the best place to be due to the errors that far out. south floirda has been in the situation more than a few times since my arrival in fort lauderdale 8 years ago.
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#518 Postby wxcrazytwo » Tue Oct 18, 2005 4:37 am

the models will flip flop. I say the models will move a little more to the left. I have seen the models do this way too many times..
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bosag
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#519 Postby bosag » Tue Oct 18, 2005 4:49 am

Dang it, and we had wedding to go to on Saturday our in Jupiter Farms :eek: Barb
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#520 Postby caneivan » Tue Oct 18, 2005 4:51 am

I agree look at Ivan for an example.
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