Wilma,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[Weatherfreak14]

It is very likely. Good morning everyone.

[StormFury]

I believe it will be upgraded to a hurricanes at 11 AM. If anything, 8 AM should find a lower pressure and maximum sustained winds of 70 mph.

[JamesFromMaine2]

I believe it will be upgraded to a hurricanes at 11 AM. If anything, 8 AM should find a lower pressure and maximum sustained winds of 70 mph.

already has max winds of 70mph they were increased at 5am

[SkeetoBite]

Let's have a quick mini poll here.

Will Wilma be a hurricane at 8 AM Advisorie?.

I say close call but no they will do it at 11 AM.

Best guess:

8am = 60/40

11am = 80/20

edit: 2pm = 90/10

5pm = 100

In any case, the lower FL penninsula is headed the right way for a smacked bottom.

[StormFury]

Oh I see.

[wxwatcher2]

It's irrelavant when this storm actually becomes a hurricane. In truth, is the time ever really that accurate? No, it's just when the NHC decides to upgrade it.

Hurricane Wilma. Man, that sounds wierd. Go Away Wilma.
My wishcast is over Western Cuba and through the Fla Straits and out to the Bahama's. Florida does not need or want even a minimal hurricane.

[johngaltfla]

It's irrelavant when this storm actually becomes a hurricane. In truth, is the time ever really that accurate? No, it's just when the NHC decides to upgrade it.

Hurricane Wilma. Man, that sounds wierd. Go Away Wilma.
My wishcast is over Western Cuba and through the Fla Straits and out to the Bahama's. Florida does not need or want even a minimal hurricane.

My wish is that the cold front and ULL hurry up and get here. If it's a slow moving event and Wilma gets more time to track North and NW, then we'll be back in the toast zone.

[StormFury]

Ahhh! I will not be leaving my house for work (because my left ear is completely plugged up and I can hardly hear with just 1 ear) and will be able to see what's going on...on Storm2k and with Wilma's progress. A double-edged sword I guess. I don't know what to do to unplug my ear. Oh well, maybe I should pay a visit to Wilma...her very low pressure will probably pop my left ear open.

[Zadok]

I don't know what to do to unplug my ear.

Use hydrogen peroxide and an eyedropper. put a couple drops in drain and repeat the process if necessary. Cleans that filthy wax out real good. 8-)

[angelwing]

I hope this isn't a stupid question (and I didn't think I should start another topic)but a friend of mine had asked me if Wilma might make landfall at the Everglades National Park. Being that I don't know Florida that well (only been to Ft Myers & Disney World eons ago)I would like to know if anyone thinks that it could go that way.

Thank you,
Mary

[StormFury]

Thanks for the advice Zadock.

[jlauderdal]

I hope this isn't a stupid question (and I didn't think I should start another topic)but a friend of mine had asked me if Wilma might make landfall at the Everglades National Park. Being that I don't know Florida that well (only been to Ft Myers & Disney World eons ago)I would like to know if anyone thinks that it could go that way.

Thank you,
Mary

sure it could or it could go to tampa or key west or sarasota or the panhandle although that is very unlikely.

[angelwing]

Thanks!

[Aquawind]

Holy Moly... We have even more agreement on a turn.. That's amazing clustering..

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/%7Evig ... early1.png

Paul

[Windtalker1]

[img=http://img435.imageshack.us/img435/9804/wilma23et.th.gif] Forcast #2...Cold front to strong for Wilma to go up the East Coast. She will go out to sea after crossing South Florida. Wilma will also gain Cat 5 Status for a short time before hitting Florida as a weak Cat 4....Comments Welcome.

[cycloneye]

CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL STORM WILMA 24L

INITIAL TIME 6Z OCT 18

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 15.7 79.9 360./ .0
6 16.2 80.5 313./ 7.7
12 16.8 81.1 317./ 8.4
18 17.8 81.9 319./12.4
24 18.0 83.3 279./13.5
30 18.5 83.8 315./ 6.3
36 18.7 84.8 282./10.0
42 19.0 85.4 298./ 7.1
48 19.3 85.8 311./ 4.3
54 20.1 86.1 338./ 8.7
60 20.7 86.6 323./ 7.2
66 21.4 86.6 356./ 7.1
72 21.9 86.7 353./ 5.2
78 22.7 86.6 6./ 7.9
84 23.2 86.4 17./ 4.9
90 23.9 86.0 32./ 7.6
96 24.5 85.7 30./ 7.4
102 25.4 84.9 41./11.0
108 26.5 83.6 50./16.1
114 28.0 81.7 51./22.1
120 29.7 79.4 53./26.8
126 32.0 76.4 53./35.0



6z GFDL more west and close to Tampa at landfall.

[bobbutts]

[img=http://img435.imageshack.us/img435/9804/wilma23et.th.gif] Forcast #2...Cold front to strong for Wilma to go up the East Coast. She will go out to sea after crossing South Florida. Wilma will also gain Cat 5 Status for a short time before hitting Florida as a weak Cat 4....Comments Welcome.

Looks like you have the intensity too weak at first and too strong later. Track is as good a guess as any.

[wxcrazytwo]

[img=http://img435.imageshack.us/img435/9804/wilma23et.th.gif] Forcast #2...Cold front to strong for Wilma to go up the East Coast. She will go out to sea after crossing South Florida. Wilma will also gain Cat 5 Status for a short time before hitting Florida as a weak Cat 4....Comments Welcome.

Looks like you have the intensity too weak at first and too strong later. Track is as good a guess as any.

not according to cycloneye's latest 6z GFDL model run.

[floridahurricaneguy]

CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL STORM WILMA 24L

INITIAL TIME 6Z OCT 18

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 15.7 79.9 360./ .0
6 16.2 80.5 313./ 7.7
12 16.8 81.1 317./ 8.4
18 17.8 81.9 319./12.4
24 18.0 83.3 279./13.5
30 18.5 83.8 315./ 6.3
36 18.7 84.8 282./10.0
42 19.0 85.4 298./ 7.1
48 19.3 85.8 311./ 4.3
54 20.1 86.1 338./ 8.7
60 20.7 86.6 323./ 7.2
66 21.4 86.6 356./ 7.1
72 21.9 86.7 353./ 5.2
78 22.7 86.6 6./ 7.9
84 23.2 86.4 17./ 4.9
90 23.9 86.0 32./ 7.6
96 24.5 85.7 30./ 7.4
102 25.4 84.9 41./11.0
108 26.5 83.6 50./16.1
114 28.0 81.7 51./22.1
120 29.7 79.4 53./26.8
126 32.0 76.4 53./35.0



6z GFDL more west and close to Tampa at landfall.

So path shifted closer to us on GFDL? I think Wilma will suprise making her turn more gradual and eventually hitting just south of Tampa, like sarasota.

Matt

[SkeetoBite]

GFDL slightly west (or further north over FL)