Wilma,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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cinlfla
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#561 Postby cinlfla » Tue Oct 18, 2005 7:09 am

6z GFDL more west and close to Tampa at landfall.



If I remember right the oz GFDL was closer to a south florida landfall. This is a good example of model flip flopping.
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Re: My Wilma Forcast #2

#562 Postby Trader Ron » Tue Oct 18, 2005 7:10 am

Windtalker1 wrote:[img=http://img435.imageshack.us/img435/9804/wilma23et.th.gif] Forcast #2...Cold front to strong for Wilma to go up the East Coast. She will go out to sea after crossing South Florida. Wilma will also gain Cat 5 Status for a short time before hitting Florida as a weak Cat 4....Comments Welcome.


I doubt Wilma will become a Cat 4 much less a Cat 5 at any time. Just a guess on my part , I say a strong Cat 2 Weak Cat 3 at landfall.
Just my 2 cents.

:lol: :lol:
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#563 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 18, 2005 7:11 am

Image

The blue line (6z GFDL) is the line that those who live in Tampa and south of that city dont want to see.
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#564 Postby dcuevas » Tue Oct 18, 2005 7:14 am

I'm in Tampa and I don't want Wilma! :grrr: Go AWAY!
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#565 Postby StormFury » Tue Oct 18, 2005 7:14 am

I think the GFDL previous predicted a Venice landfall...now a Sarasota landfall. Very little if any change. And isn't it true that during Charley the GFDL predicted a near Tampa landfall...and then it hit SW Florida because the GFDL underestimated the strength of the trough. Maybe something similar will happen this time.

Which model has proven the most accurate the past hurricane seasons?

And what is the latest GFS model predicting?
Last edited by StormFury on Tue Oct 18, 2005 7:17 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#566 Postby JamesFromMaine2 » Tue Oct 18, 2005 7:15 am

how strong does the latest GFDL make wilma now?
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#567 Postby Trader Ron » Tue Oct 18, 2005 7:18 am

The GFDL looks like a Naples/ Ft Myers landfall to my bad eyes. The track is SOUTH of Lake Okeechobee.
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#568 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 18, 2005 7:22 am

TPNT KGWC 181215
A. TROPICAL STORM WILMA (TWENTY-FOUR)
B. 18/1131Z (110)
C. 15.6N/2
D. 80.5W/3
E. SIX/GOES12
F. T4.0/4.0/D1.5/24HRS -18/1131Z-
G. IR/EIR

38A/ PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .80 USING THE LOG10
SPIRAL, ADDED 0.5 FOR WHITE BAND, GIVING A DT OF 4.0. FT IS
BASED ON DT. MET AND PT SUPPORTS.

AODT: T4.5 (EMBEDED CLD RGN)

WEAVER




Air Force Sat Estimates has Wilma as a hurricane.
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#569 Postby skysummit » Tue Oct 18, 2005 7:22 am

I know the models will keep shifting...we're almost 6 days out! So far they've been pretty consistant (at least in the past day or so). I'll stick with the models for now, until they change again.
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#570 Postby floridahurricaneguy » Tue Oct 18, 2005 7:35 am

If it hits like south florida area, will Tampa possibly get TS conditions? Looks like it will be a big system? I am thinking we will get TS Warning and Hurricane Watch? Sound right?

Matt
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#571 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Oct 18, 2005 7:39 am

Image

Wilma Bombs!
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#572 Postby skysummit » Tue Oct 18, 2005 7:40 am

She surely looks like a Cane on Visible! Very impressive Wilma!
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#573 Postby JamesFromMaine2 » Tue Oct 18, 2005 7:40 am

I have no clue why this hasn't been upgraded to a hurricane yet! It sure looks like a hurricane!
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#574 Postby StormFury » Tue Oct 18, 2005 7:42 am

Hey Matt...to answer your question you need to consider how large Wilma will be. If she strenghtens more, she certainly will grow. However, if she is the siz of Katrina or Floyd then there will be strong tropical force winds easily extending up to Tampa.
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#575 Postby HomesteadHoney » Tue Oct 18, 2005 7:43 am

For those of us way down here at the bottom of Florida, does anyone have a suggestion for an evacuation spot? My usual choices, Naples, Tampa and Orlando all seem equally likely for a hit at this point.

Like NOLA, our evacuation routes for the millions of people down here are really limited (I-95, I-75 and Hwy 27). If I was to take a cautious approach and leave by Thursday, how far do we have to go??

I think many more people will be heeding early evacuation advice due to the insane evacuation experiences in TX and LA already this year.

My second post! :D
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#576 Postby boca » Tue Oct 18, 2005 7:43 am

Wilma can also miss Florida completely and cut thru the FL Straitsdue to the trough being very deep.
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#577 Postby JamesFromMaine2 » Tue Oct 18, 2005 7:45 am

boca wrote:Wilma can also miss Florida completely and cut thru the FL Straitsdue to the trough being very deep.


IMO even if it does that with Wilma's size either way Florida will atleast get tropical storm force winds and rain even if its not a direct hit!
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#578 Postby JPmia » Tue Oct 18, 2005 7:46 am

boca wrote:Wilma can also miss Florida completely and cut thru the FL Straitsdue to the trough being very deep.


That's what I am hoping for this morning! I woke up to see all the global models agreeing on a track between just south of Tampa to Naples. Yikes. Hopefully the model trend for the next couple of days will continue south and then out to sea.
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#579 Postby Derek Ortt » Tue Oct 18, 2005 7:50 am

the trough needs to be very, very WEAK for this to miss FL to the south.

A stronger trough has more south to north flow, while a weak trough has west to east flow
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#580 Postby JPmia » Tue Oct 18, 2005 7:51 am

Source: 5am TPC Disco:
WILMA
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME AN INTENSE HURRICANE IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBEAN SEA...TYPICAL OF THOSE HURRICANES WHICH COMMONLY OCCURRED
IN OCTOBER DURING THE 30'S 40'S AND 50'S. THIS IS NOTHING NEW.

WILMA HAS BARELY MOVED FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. DESPITE MODELS
SHOWING A WEAKENING OF THE ANTICYLONE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THIS FEATURE IS STILL THERE AND STRONG...BLOCKING THE MOTION OF
WILMA. IT IS STILL FRESH IN MY MEMORY THAT...IN 1998 WITH A SIMILAR
STEERING PATTERN...ALL MODELS MOVED HURRICANE MITCH NORTHWARD AND
THE HURRICANE INDEED MOVED SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...DYNAMICAL MODELS
HAVE IMPROVED A LOT SINCE THEN AND THE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER.

.....And a lot of those hurricanes hit southern Florida during that period.
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