Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

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fci
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#181 Postby fci » Tue Oct 18, 2005 9:39 am

Brent wrote:
Noah wrote:stop saying sarasota!!!!!


all models are going south of that.. gfdl shows tampa..know your geographics


Nope... the GFDL is just south of Tampa Bay(see the odd shape with the bay?) That's Tampa...

Image


Seems to me that you are quibbling over outlier models.
Consensus appears to be South Florida coming in in the Ft Myers/Naples/Keys area and not Tampa or Sarasota.
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#182 Postby Brent » Tue Oct 18, 2005 9:41 am

BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILMA ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT TUE OCT 18 2005

...WILMA BECOMES THE 12TH HURRICANE OF THE SEASON AS IT HEADS
NORTHWESTWARD...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER TODAY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

WILMA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. ALL INTERESTS IN WESTERN CUBA...THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF WILMA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 80.6 WEST OR ABOUT 195
MILES... 320 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 200
MILES... 325 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER.

WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH ...11 KM/HR... AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND WILMA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 120 MILES...195 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 977 MB...28.85 INCHES.

WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES
OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...JAMAICA...HAITI...AND SOUTHEASTERN
CUBA...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10
INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA.

REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...16.5 N... 80.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 977 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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#183 Postby caneman » Tue Oct 18, 2005 9:42 am

fci wrote:
Brent wrote:
Noah wrote:stop saying sarasota!!!!!


all models are going south of that.. gfdl shows tampa..know your geographics


Nope... the GFDL is just south of Tampa Bay(see the odd shape with the bay?) That's Tampa...

Image


Seems to me that you are quibbling over outlier models.
Consensus appears to be South Florida coming in in the Ft Myers/Naples/Keys area and not Tampa or Sarasota.


I will take an outlier GFDL and Euro reliable outlier model or at least pay close attention to it any day.
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#184 Postby Brent » Tue Oct 18, 2005 9:43 am

Image
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#185 Postby cjrciadt » Tue Oct 18, 2005 9:43 am

Image
977mb
Last edited by cjrciadt on Tue Oct 18, 2005 9:46 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#186 Postby cinlfla » Tue Oct 18, 2005 9:44 am

Hmmm, interesting wonder why they took the cone off of Florida
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#187 Postby Aquawind » Tue Oct 18, 2005 9:45 am

NW at 7mph.. Thats a change of pace.. woah 977mb.. Very interesting..

Paul
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#188 Postby tracyswfla » Tue Oct 18, 2005 9:46 am

cinlfla wrote:Hmmm, interesting wonder why they took the cone off of Florida


That's the 3 day cone. 5 day still has Florida in it
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#189 Postby ronjon » Tue Oct 18, 2005 9:47 am

fci wrote:
Brent wrote:
Noah wrote:stop saying sarasota!!!!!


all models are going south of that.. gfdl shows tampa..know your geographics


Nope... the GFDL is just south of Tampa Bay(see the odd shape with the bay?) That's Tampa...

Image


Seems to me that you are quibbling over outlier models.
Consensus appears to be South Florida coming in in the Ft Myers/Naples/Keys area and not Tampa or Sarasota.



Don't think the GFDL or EURO are outlier models - they're probably the two best. If you'll recall, the GFDL correctly nailed Katrina's SW movement through the Everglades this year, so please stay with your BAMs and UKMETs - some of the worst performing models. :wink:
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#190 Postby cinlfla » Tue Oct 18, 2005 9:47 am

opps, sorry about that :wink:
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#191 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Tue Oct 18, 2005 9:49 am

cinlfla wrote:Hmmm, interesting wonder why they took the cone off of Florida


LMAO..OK WTF?
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#192 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Tue Oct 18, 2005 9:49 am

Aquawind wrote:NW at 7mph.. Thats a change of pace.. woah 977mb.. Very interesting..

Paul


I said 5...Good Eye...
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#193 Postby cinlfla » Tue Oct 18, 2005 9:51 am

LMAO..OK WTF?




That was pretty funny wasn't it, Big oooppppsseeee



I had to edit this to explain my bad eyes 3 to 4 hours of sleep last couple of night due to my 9 year old being put on an insulin pump sorry I know this is off topic but wanted to explain my stupid post. :wink:
Last edited by cinlfla on Tue Oct 18, 2005 9:53 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#194 Postby Noah » Tue Oct 18, 2005 9:51 am

ukmet and bam show extreme south florida
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#195 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Tue Oct 18, 2005 9:52 am

Noah wrote:ukmet and bam show extreme south florida


1100 they must be splitting the difference....Looks Right thru SLC
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#196 Postby seaswing » Tue Oct 18, 2005 9:53 am

fci wrote:
jlauderdal wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Ok folks post away all your comments,if you have sat pics of Wilma and the model runs.I suspect that this thread will break the record of 110 pages of Katrina.


christy will personally ensure that as long as homestead has a chance.. :D 8-)


Wow, you are brutal.
And have a long memory!!!

:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:


:roflmao: thats all I can say
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#197 Postby tracyswfla » Tue Oct 18, 2005 9:53 am

Can we pretty much almost guarantee a Florida hit at this point? The models have been consistent for 2 days now. I know there are no guarantees in weather forecasting. But I think we should start thinking about what we are going to do to protect our families and property.
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#198 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Oct 18, 2005 9:54 am

tracyswfla wrote:Can we pretty much almost guarantee a Florida hit at this point? The models have been consistent for 2 days now. I know there are no guarantees in weather forecasting. But I think we should start thinking about what we are going to do to protect our families and property.


A Florida hit was guaranteed the day this system formed!
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#199 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Tue Oct 18, 2005 9:55 am

tracyswfla wrote:Can we pretty much almost guarantee a Florida hit at this point? The models have been consistent for 2 days now. I know there are no guarantees in weather forecasting. But I think we should start thinking about what we are going to do to protect our families and property.


Its time...
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#200 Postby HurricaneGirl » Tue Oct 18, 2005 9:55 am

:eek:
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