12 Z GFS further South - Misses Peninsula

[Steve H.]

tHE 12Z gfs NOWS SHOWS wILMA CROSSING THE KEYS FROM WEST TO EAST, THEN STAYING SOUTH OF THE PENINSULA around the horn, thru the Bahamas then NE. Not buying it now, since such a negatively tilted trough would bring it north, not fling it east. Let's see if other models show such a change. BTW this will change again, but the GFS is insisting on a much further south solution.

[DESTRUCTION5]

tHE 12Z gfs NOWS SHOWS wILMA CROSSING THE KEYS FROM WEST TO EAST, THEN STAYING SOUTH OF THE PENINSULA around the horn, thru the Bahamas then NE. Not buying it now, since such a negatively tilted trough would bring it north, not fling it east. Let's see if other models show such a change. BTW this will change again, but the GFS is insisting on a much further south solution.

I think its doing a GFS...

[StormFury]

And the NHC predicts a solution which takes the middle path.

It's a coincidence how South Floridians are saying the GFS is accurate while Central Floridians are saying the GFDL is right.

[Brent]

I'm not sure I buy it going THAT far south...

[jlauderdal]

And the NHC predicts a solution which takes the middle path.

It's a coincidence how South Floridians are saying the GFS is accurate while Central Floridians are saying the GFDL is right.

I don't see that happeneing. I think we would need to see some consistency with the GFS for a few more runs to go with its current solution.

[StormFury]

If the GFS has shifted south, the GFDL might also shift south.

[Steve H.]

Well, I'd personally like this to stay away, but none of the other guidance is showing such a far south move. The problem with the GFS solution is that it shows the trough near the eastern lakes going negative tilt, and the windfield of Wilma getting sucked north, but the storm continues to go east. Doesn't add up. The EC and NOGAPS have it further north as well. At least the 0Z and 12z respectively. It is moving NW sooner than the NHC anticipated, so one gets the idea that it will gain more lattitude before getting influenced by the trough. Don't get me wrong, the GFS could be right in the end....stranger things have happened. But I think that the GFS is hanging on this storm NOT phasing with the trough, when it very well may, come early next week. This will change over the next few days, but unless there is a significant reason for the GFS to go against the consensus, you have to bet againtst the outlier.

[StormFury]

http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/picser ... p?t=m&m=24

the GFDL is also an outlier!

[DESTRUCTION5]

http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/picservice.asp?t=m&m=24

the GFDL is also an outlier!

So now you Know Why The NNHC Split the Difference..

[Steve H.]

Its an outlier against the tropical models, but not the globals. The EC, CMC and NOGAPS are further north.

[Nimbus]

Steve H. wrote :

It is moving NW sooner than the NHC anticipated, so one gets the idea that it will gain more lattitude before getting influenced by the trough.

I agree this is the same storm I was envisioning last Friday. Major hurricane with a similar track to the October 1921 storm. The models are going back and forth and they are likely to come left again when initialized with a faster forward speed WNW.

Have to see what the water vapor loop looks like in a day or two. Currently there is a lot of dry air in the gulf that has been pumped down by the ridge. If the high to the east of Wilma builds it will pump moist air up from the Carribean.

[StormFury]

the CMC and NOGAPS are unreliable...past experience tells us this. If you average out the GFS, GFDL, and Euro SW Florida is the prime target....not west central Florida.

[Ivanhater]

the CMC and NOGAPS are unreliable...past experience tells us this. If you average out the GFS, GFDL, and Euro SW Florida is the prime target....not west central Florida.

they all have a bias, and and euro and gfs?? gfs has fliped back and forth between all the way from the b.o.c and the florida straits...cant just pick and choose...look for trends in the models

[MWatkins]

The 0Z UKMET also trended south through the straights...and that remains a distinct possibility.

I think what could be affecting the GFS is that it isn't making as wide a turn around Cuba...so although the trajectory is similar it is not far enough west when it makes the move to come up the SW coast.

NOGAPS also makes a tighter turn...but ends up right on the NHC forecast track.

Right now no one specific model is better than the other for any paticular run...but right now I agree with Steve...the mechanics are a bit strange looking with the turn and the approach from the GFS.

The good news we have a synoptic drop mission tonight...this should help the forecast models a bit...at least.

MW

[otowntiger]

the CMC and NOGAPS are unreliable...past experience tells us this. If you average out the GFS, GFDL, and Euro SW Florida is the prime target....not west central Florida.

Lemme guess: You live in south or southwest FL.

[DESTRUCTION5]

The 0Z UKMET also trended south through the straights...and that remains a distinct possibility.

I think what could be affecting the GFS is that it isn't making as wide a turn around Cuba...so although the trajectory is similar it is not far enough west when it makes the move to come up the SW coast.

NOGAPS also makes a tighter turn...but ends up right on the NHC forecast track.

Right now no one specific model is better than the other for any paticular run...but right now I agree with Steve...the mechanics are a bit strange looking with the turn and the approach from the GFS.

The good news we have a synoptic drop mission tonight...this should help the forecast models a bit...at least.

MW

OK MW...Give us your Virdict...Nothing exact..Just a range...

[tracyswfla]

The 0Z UKMET also trended south through the straights...and that remains a distinct possibility.

I think what could be affecting the GFS is that it isn't making as wide a turn around Cuba...so although the trajectory is similar it is not far enough west when it makes the move to come up the SW coast.

NOGAPS also makes a tighter turn...but ends up right on the NHC forecast track.

Right now no one specific model is better than the other for any paticular run...but right now I agree with Steve...the mechanics are a bit strange looking with the turn and the approach from the GFS.

The good news we have a synoptic drop mission tonight...this should help the forecast models a bit...at least.

MW

OK MW...Give us your Virdict...Nothing exact..Just a range...

PLEASE!

[MWatkins]

I’ve run through the 12Z models (except the Euro…not out yet) and here’s the summary:

NOGAPS: More or less right on the previous track and the NHC track with a very strong hurricane in the model…making landfall in SW Florida
GFS: See above.
GFDL: Further south near the NOGAPS track
UKMET: Has shifted a bit north and puts the center near Miami in about 100 hours or so…

FWIW…the FSU Superensemble from this morning is also very close to right on the NHC forecast track…

Currently I still believe the southern 1/3 of the peninsula is at greatest risk. I don not currently foresee a Tampa Bay landfall…but it remains an outside possibility. So I am not going out on a limb here…I would think right now a landfall in SW FL between 27.5N and 25.0N is the greatest risk…with a much smaller risk between 27.5 and 28.5…and a bit higher than that risk for the Keys.

Of course this is subject to change as this is still very early on. The synoptic flight tonight may change things…

MW

[HurricaneQueen]

Come on, Mike! I'm depending on you to keep it out of here. How's that for pressure!

Lynn

[jax]

otowntiger, lemme guess...you predict Wilma will hit Orlando directly!

Um, no. Actually I don't ever predict. That's not my job, I leave that up to the professionals. On this board, however I know everyone has a right to make predictions. I'm just making an observation about those who do predict, often times are more inclined to predict (dare I say w---cast) landfall nearest themselves. Besides why would I want another storm here. We've had our share.

OUCH!!!
Had your share? What's a share?
did we all get our share?
who didn't get a fair share?