Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

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#301 Postby artist » Tue Oct 18, 2005 12:10 pm

Brent - i had heard it would cross the state in as little as 6 hours and there fore that would also help to keep the strength as well.
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#302 Postby artist » Tue Oct 18, 2005 12:11 pm

El Nino- yep - I posted a thread about it. Sounds like they have been having a really hard time especially on the south side of the island.
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#303 Postby stormandan28 » Tue Oct 18, 2005 12:12 pm

CMC model 12Z looks a little further north?
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#304 Postby StormFury » Tue Oct 18, 2005 12:14 pm

I don't think CMC is reliable. Stick with the GFS, GFDL, and Euro.
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#305 Postby Brent » Tue Oct 18, 2005 12:17 pm

artist wrote:Brent - i had heard it would cross the state in as little as 6 hours and there fore that would also help to keep the strength as well.


It will weaken some though... if it follows the NHC track and makes landfall with, say 115 mph, it will probably be about 90 mph when it re-emerges.

Could be less if it crosses more of the state or stronger if it crosses the Everglades.
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#306 Postby Ivanhater » Tue Oct 18, 2005 12:19 pm

looks like wilma has resumed a west to wnw motion...you can see the little dent on visible of the eye

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
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#307 Postby cjrciadt » Tue Oct 18, 2005 12:21 pm

http://rsd.gsfc.nasa.gov/goes/
the site is back up running at full speed.
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#308 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 18, 2005 12:33 pm




HURRICANE WILMA ANALYSED POSITION : 16.2N 80.3W



ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL242005



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 18.10.2005 16.2N 80.3W MODERATE

00UTC 19.10.2005 17.0N 81.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 19.10.2005 17.7N 82.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 20.10.2005 18.5N 82.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 20.10.2005 19.4N 83.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 21.10.2005 21.1N 84.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 21.10.2005 22.3N 84.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 22.10.2005 23.2N 83.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 22.10.2005 23.9N 82.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 23.10.2005 25.5N 80.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 23.10.2005 27.8N 75.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 24.10.2005 31.2N 72.1W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY

12UTC 24.10.2005 34.7N 67.8W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY



12z UKMET tracks from Key West to just south of Miami.
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#309 Postby Canelaw99 » Tue Oct 18, 2005 12:36 pm

:eek: :eek: My lat./long. is 25.2/80.2 - that track has a point right near me - I don't like that one bit. Let's hope it doesn't verify
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#310 Postby skysummit » Tue Oct 18, 2005 12:37 pm

CHRISTY will go absolutely NUTS when she sees the 12z UKMET.
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#311 Postby WeatherEmperor » Tue Oct 18, 2005 12:38 pm

so that means the UKMET stays put? no jumps to north or south?

<RICKY>
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#312 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 18, 2005 12:38 pm

skysummit wrote:CHRISTY will go absolutely NUTS when she sees the 12z UKMET.


Oh please dont mention that name. :roll:
Last edited by cycloneye on Tue Oct 18, 2005 12:39 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#313 Postby El Nino » Tue Oct 18, 2005 12:38 pm

Intensifying slightly on saturday ? I suppose UKMOT is slower then. Not very accurate this model for the moment. Trust more ECM and GFDL.
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#314 Postby Brent » Tue Oct 18, 2005 12:39 pm

skysummit wrote:CHRISTY will go absolutely NUTS when she sees the 12z UKMET.


Oh Lord... :lol: :P
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#315 Postby Ivanhater » Tue Oct 18, 2005 12:39 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:so that means the UKMET stays put? no jumps to north or south?

<RICKY>


went north i believe, it was in the straits before
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#316 Postby jkt21787 » Tue Oct 18, 2005 12:40 pm

I haven't seen CHRISTY here in a long, long time. I'm surprised.
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#317 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 18, 2005 12:40 pm

ivanhater wrote:
WeatherEmperor wrote:so that means the UKMET stays put? no jumps to north or south?

<RICKY>


went north i believe, it was in the straits before


Your are right the 00Z was in the straits.
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#318 Postby Ivanhater » Tue Oct 18, 2005 12:42 pm

anyone notice the westward motion in the past few frames
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#319 Postby skysummit » Tue Oct 18, 2005 12:42 pm

cycloneye wrote:
skysummit wrote:CHRISTY will go absolutely NUTS when she sees the 12z UKMET.


Oh please dont mention that name. :roll:


LOL! :lol:
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#320 Postby jlauderdal » Tue Oct 18, 2005 12:42 pm

jkt21787 wrote:I haven't seen CHRISTY here in a long, long time. I'm surprised.


christy was last seen at MIA getting the first flight to alaska
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