Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

[El Nino]

Thanks, yup, it seems quite high for the moment. Could lst a moment as a major hurricane. I wonder which effect it could have on European weather.

[Weatherfreak14]

Yep looks that way.

[cinlfla]

I just took a look at the 12z ecmwf and it looks like it might have its starting position to far north....If I'm reading the map right.
I tried to post a link but was haivng trouble

[nicdeedoop]

"christy was last seen at MIA getting the first flight to alaska"

According to the FEMA officer I'm currently working with the state with the fewest claims they are holding paper on right now (and that paper represents 5% of the country according to him) is New Mexico.

[leonardo]

12Z ECMWF

120 hours:


144 hours:


168 hours:


phases at 168 hours, bringing New England a heck of a storm. Florida landfall is hard to determine, but looks like Ft. Myers or just north.

[inotherwords]

We all like to comment and jump on each model run, even though we are all fully aware that they will shift and change right up until landfall, especially with this sort of difficult angle/curve to accomplish! But we should all remember that right now the models are chugging out their data before the sampling of the atmosphere has occurred. I want to wait for the models after they can digest the new atmospheric recon data! -Also, how is that front doing and the CONUS weather shaping up that is supposed to affect Wilma? I haven't seen any posts about the synoptics that are changing to justify any model changes. IS the front moving faster or slower? Is it stronger or weaker? Is it going to dig deep or not? How strong are the High's? etc.
Anyone have any of the details on the "other stuff" around Wilma?
-this is the stuff we should all want to hear about so we can learn more!

Excellent points.

[Foladar0]

:eek: My lat./long. is 25.2/80.2 - that track has a point right near me - I don't like that one bit. Let's hope it doesn't verify

I agree, don't like it one bit.

[Brent]

940 mb...

*falls over*

That would be a catastrophe.

[P.K.]

WHXX01 KWBC 181806
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

HURRICANE WILMA (AL242005) ON 20051018 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051018 1800 051019 0600 051019 1800 051020 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 16.7N 81.1W 17.4N 82.9W 18.2N 84.6W 18.9N 86.0W
BAMM 16.7N 81.1W 17.6N 82.9W 18.5N 84.5W 19.3N 85.9W
A98E 16.7N 81.1W 17.5N 82.5W 18.2N 83.8W 19.3N 85.1W
LBAR 16.7N 81.1W 17.6N 82.4W 19.1N 83.9W 20.6N 85.0W
SHIP 70KTS 81KTS 92KTS 100KTS
DSHP 70KTS 81KTS 92KTS 100KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051020 1800 051021 1800 051022 1800 051023 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 19.7N 86.9W 20.7N 86.2W 23.1N 82.1W 29.8N 74.3W
BAMM 20.0N 86.8W 21.4N 85.9W 24.0N 82.3W 29.6N 74.5W
A98E 20.6N 86.0W 22.0N 87.7W 21.7N 88.5W 20.8N 87.9W
LBAR 22.4N 85.2W 27.0N 82.4W 32.6N 71.8W 34.6N 55.7W
SHIP 105KTS 109KTS 101KTS 80KTS
DSHP 105KTS 109KTS 101KTS 61KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.7N LONCUR = 81.1W DIRCUR = 305DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 15.7N LONM12 = 80.0W DIRM12 = 322DEG SPDM12 = 3KT
LATM24 = 16.1N LONM24 = 79.9W
WNDCUR = 70KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 60KT
CENPRS = 975MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 300NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 120NM RD34SE = 75NM RD34SW = 60NM RD34NW = 120NM

[Foladar0]

:eek: My lat./long. is 25.2/80.2 - that track has a point right near me - I don't like that one bit. Let's hope it doesn't verify

I agree, don't like it one bit.

[Foladar0]

:eek: My lat./long. is 25.2/80.2 - that track has a point right near me - I don't like that one bit. Let's hope it doesn't verify

I agree, don't like it one bit.

[El Nino]

My God, this is really a powerfull one on the Eastern seaboard. I think we could have something almost historical !

[Ground_Zero_92]

:eek: My lat./long. is 25.2/80.2 - that track has a point right near me - I don't like that one bit. Let's hope it doesn't verify

I agree, don't like it one bit.

I also do not like the trending of the models. With that said, I won't panic just yet. Let's all wait and see how the models digest the atmospheric sampling data from recon. Tonight's model runs should bear more confidence, since they will include the atmospheric data.

Personally I am hoping that Wilma goes through the straights of Florida. Still bad for the Keys, unfortunately.

[Brent]

The 12z GFDL has a Cat 4 off NC at the end of the run racing northward.

[Blown Away]

Looks like the models are closing in on a path through the Keys or just S.
Very common track for October storms.
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html

[Trader Ron]

The 12z GFDL has a Cat 4 off NC at the end of the run racing northward.

I would think the water would be too cool to support a Cat 4 Hurricane off N.C.

[El Nino]

A sharp turn uh ... maybe some interference with Cuban land !

[krysof]

Could I be in danger?

[SouthFloridawx]

[thermos]

The 12z GFDL has a Cat 4 off NC at the end of the run racing northward.

Is that even possible this time of year?