Will models shift again????

[bucman1]

and Why???

[jax]

yes they will...
they always do... especially beyond 72 hours.
We will know a whole lot more come Thursday afternoon

[Brent]

Yes... because landfall is 4 days away.

[Bgator]

I beleive they will wobble but not to a great extent, Soem of the models that put it into the keys might shift it back into the mainland but i say by 2marow we shulkd have a good handle!

[skysummit]

Most definately.

[bucman1]

Bgator says only a wobble or two,anybody exspect a big change??

[Brent]

I don't expect them to shift to the Panhandle or anywhere... but they could shift back towards Tampa or even north of Tampa. I'm saying south of Tampa but not so far south that it just clips South Florida or misses all together.

[bucman1]

Brent,

are their synoptics that make you think this way??

[Brent]

Brent,

are their synoptics that make you think this way??

Models are having a tough time with the trough and just what impact it'll have on that track. That's basically the sole thing that will decide when Wilma turns, how sharp, and where it hits.

[Nimbus]

There are going to be large wind fields with this storm.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42057

Power could be out over a wide area.
Interesting recon data coming in.

[bucman1]

Nimbus,

How big a windfield do you exspect??

[txwatcher91]

Nimbus,

How big a windfield do you exspect??

I'm not nimbus, but I would think a wind field probably similar to Katrina and Rita.

[Steve]

I think they'll shift a little more northerly. Wilma was moving South and slightly farther west of the previously plotted track and when turns, will probably be farther west than anticipated. In my world with a negatively tilted trof heading down (usually those are transient and lift out), then timing is the issue. A bypassing trough would mean an entirely different storm scenario; an approaching trof (- tilted) probably means a heading between ENE-NE towards FL.

*This is not an official forecast, just an answer to a question.*

Steve

[floridahurricaneguy]

Trough will determine everything. I think models will shift north. More towards Tampa area or just south. Trough is being played up stronger then it really is. Also its south of models, wilma I mean. I am thinking shift in track over the next 48 hours with probably a greater impact on Central Florida, and West Central Florida then maybe previously thought. Unreasonable?

Matt

[arkess7]

Brent,

are their synoptics that make you think this way??

Models are having a tough time with the trough and just what impact it'll have on that track. That's basically the sole thing that will decide when Wilma turns, how sharp, and where it hits.

yep......exactly......we will know more in the days to come


(ive probably posted this all over this forum before but here goes)


STAY AWAY STAY AWAY......FROM TAMPA BAY!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Scorpion]

Trough will determine everything. I think models will shift north. More towards Tampa area or just south. Trough is being played up stronger then it really is. Also its south of models, wilma I mean. I am thinking shift in track over the next 48 hours with probably a greater impact on Central Florida, and West Central Florida then maybe previously thought. Unreasonable?

Matt

Why are you saying it will come towards Tampa and Central Florida? The models have shifted south from an already south consensus. Trust me you do not want a hurricane coming to Tampa.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Everyone shoudl read Nexrad's post in the Pro Met section... very good

Note: It takes a minimum of 53 hours to evacuate Pinellas county for a Major Hurricane (CAT 3) -and that is if people are paying attention.

I am seeing that very few people are even aware that there is a storm "out there" somewhere that *could potentially* impact us. This is despite the fact that every local met has been saying "WATCH THIS!" since Sunday morning.... which is very rare for them to hype up something so far out and even indicate in the "week ahead" weather planners that we are going to have rain and wind. They usually don't show any storm impacts until like 2 days before and prefer to show their typical weather pattern sort of forecasts for the medium and long ranges.

Let's hope this thing stays WAY south of us this time. People are just not prepared right now. We have lots of evacuees in the area and a bunch of early snowbirds have already showed up. The beach bridges are going through all kinds of construction now and that will add to evacuation problems there.