Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

[al79philly]

Krysof,

This thread at Eastern USWX provides some interesting analysis related to the threat in the Northeast.

http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?showtopic=58844

PS - Storm2K is always my favorite tropical chat board, so please don't take my link as a knock against S2K. However, being in the Northeast, I also like the easternus board, which deals with our weather up here as well.

[Foladar0]

:eek: My lat./long. is 25.2/80.2 - that track has a point right near me - I don't like that one bit. Let's hope it doesn't verify

I agree, don't like it one bit.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Its growing kind of like Katrina growned. I remember it very clearly. Lets see if my gut feeling is right.

So Dennis for July...
Katrina for August
Rita for September
Wilma?

[Aquawind]

000
FXUS62 KTBW 181700
AFDTBW

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
100 PM EDT TUE OCT 18 2005

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-THU)...NEXT FEW DAYS APPEAR QUIET LOCALLY
WHILE WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR WILMA IN NW CARIB.

TONIGHT...WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING OFF THE SE U.S. COAST AS SEEN IN WV
SAT IMAGERY. NO MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...SO DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE. WEAK SFC HIGH SETTLED OVER THE DEEP SOUTH KEEPING LIGHT
N/NE FLOW OVER THE AREA SLOWLY INCREASING ATLANTIC MOISTURE. EXPECT
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND PATCHY FOG AGAIN TONIGHT WITH TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE LAST NIGHT.

WED...TEMPS AND MOISTURE CONTINUE SLOW RISE AS UPPER RIDGING BEGINS
TO SPLIT LEAVING WEAKNESS OVER THE REGION. SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM THE
S PLAINS STATES EASTWARD NOT AS DEEP AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED AS
WELL. WILMA CONTINUES SLOW NORTHWESTERLY TRACK TOWARDS YUCATAN
CHANNEL WED/THU.

THU...INCREASING E/SE FLOW TO DEEPEN TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE SE
TO CENTRAL FL PENINSULA. WILL KEEP TEMPS ABOVE CLIMO AS POPS REMAIN
ISOLATED OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL AREAS WITH LOW END SCT DOWN SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM (THU NGT-TUE)...EXTENDED FORECAST STILL HINGES ON WILMA`S
TRACK. CURRENT NHC FORECAST STILL HAS HER MOVING ACROSS SOUTH FL SAT
INTO EARLY SUN. IF THAT TRACK HOLDS...COULD SEE TROPICAL STORM TO
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ZONES DURING
THAT TIME. RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS
AS THE TRACK BECOMES BETTER RESOLVED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND
BEGIN PREPARATIONS. HAVE AGAIN INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TO HIGH END
SCATTERED FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH THIS CURRENT TRACK
AND TEMPS WILL CONTINUE NEAR NORMAL FOR HIGHS WITH ABOVE NORMAL
LOWS.

ONCE WILMA PASSES...WILL SEE COOLER AND DRIER AIR AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES OVER THE STATE. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW NORMAL BY
MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER WEAK FRONT MOVING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT KEEPING
TEMPS JUST BELOW NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY WITH MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES AS
THAT BOUNDARY PASSES.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php ... &version=0

[floridahurricaneguy]

In my opinion models will shift northward again tonight or tomorrow. The GFS is making the trough to strong and has the canadian low 10 degrees to far south then it actually was. I expect a more Ft Myers and north landfall.

Matt

[txwatcher91]

Its growing kind of like Katrina growned. I remember it very clearly. Lets see if my gut feeling is right.

So Dennis for July...
Katrina for August
Rita for September
Wilma?

It does appear to be growing in size just like Katrina. I remember watching Katrina slowly expand during the day, and this one appears to be doing the same thing.

[Scorpion]

In my opinion models will shift northward again tonight or tomorrow. The GFS is making the trough to strong and has the canadian low 10 degrees to far south then it actually was. I expect a more Ft Myers and north landfall.

Matt

I am sorry but that is plain -removed-. That would be a big jump north for the models to go to Tampa.

[Scorpion]

By the way, with the falling pressure and excelltent IR signature I expect a Cat 3 tonight, perhaps a 4.

[gtalum]

With Wilma's increased speed I bet the NHC and the models have a pretty good fix on her now. I would be surprised to see the models move more than a few miles in either direction now. Heck, even Joe B seems to agree with the NHC now.

[jkt21787]

In my opinion models will shift northward again tonight or tomorrow. The GFS is making the trough to strong and has the canadian low 10 degrees to far south then it actually was. I expect a more Ft Myers and north landfall.

Matt

I am sorry but that is plain -removed-. That would be a big jump north for the models to go to Tampa.

You've done it just as much as he has. Only this time you will probably get it. You may regret it afterward too.

[boca]

I work at Home Depot and people are not to concerned about Wilma because they don't think it will be too serious or even hit here.

[SouthFloridawx]

I work at Home Depot and people are not to concerned about Wilma because they don't think it will be too serious or even hit here.

they will when they find out at 11pm what is going on.

[truballer#1]

gfdl:


gfdl thenshows it barly weakening crossing florida


then back to cat 4 by gfdl

[DESTRUCTION5]

MW says FSU Super Ensamble Is very close to the NHC track....Its been pretty good this year...

[Blown Away]

Am i wrong to assume the NHC track should shift S now that the Bam's, Ukmet, and GFDL shifted S???

[mascpa]

Looks like the models are closing in on a path through the Keys or just S.
Very common track for October storms.
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html

Much too early to put that much faith in the models. At this point, all I think you can do is go with what the models are showing you in general. To try and be that specific at this juncture is premature in my opinion.

[Brent]

Am i wrong to assume the NHC track should shift S now that the Bam's, Ukmet, and GFDL shifted S???

They may shift a little, but they won't make a big shift in case they go back north later.

[truballer#1]

heres what the models show for wilma
cmc:

gfs

mm5fsu

nogaps


ukm

[DESTRUCTION5]

Am i wrong to assume the NHC track should shift S now that the Bam's, Ukmet, and GFDL shifted S???

They may shift a little, but they won't make a big shift in case they go back north later.

I criticised them for not shifting the FL Katrina landfall..I was Sure it was coming in WPB...They Stuck to that track stubbornly...It paid off..

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

67 knots found=69.34 mph at the surface...