Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

[inotherwords]

WAY too much complaceny here. This one is going to rival Jeanne/Frances here in Palm Beach in intensity and people are going to be very surprised what hit them.

finish your preparations soon!

And you are basing this on, what, exactly?

It would be nice for this forum if you would post disclaimers when you make definitive statements like this, or instead say something like "I believe this could" rather than "This one is going to."

And yes, I am paying attention to what you say. You get off on scaring people.

[Matthew Williams]

Looking at visible satellite imagery this afternoon I am having a hard time buying the quick north to north east movement that is projected in the NHC forecast. I know the visible imagery is not a best tool for steering winds aloft but we sometimes use it to tell when hurricanes are feeling boundaries. Looking at the outer bands of the Wilma I can not see any of them feeling any effects of the front just yet. And looking at visible sat. this afternoon it seems to have taken more of a westerly component. My question is what are the chances that the storm has hitting the Yucutan and what would be a forecasted track in the Gulf of Mexico if a hit on the Yucutan would happen. Also IF Wilma were to gain its Major Hurricane status wouldn't it have a harder time in doing the turn the NHC calls for?

[floridahurricaneguy]

So anyone else think more north path shift? I think GFS is overplaying the trough.

Matt

[cjrciadt]

970mb pressure and not even a cane 70mph after reduction!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Pressure Gradient Extreme

[gatorcane]

I'm not scaring people.

Should Wilma follow the track as it stands today, it is going to hit the lower 1/3 of FL very hard.

Of course that is if it follows the track and keeps the predicited intensity....

lots of things CAN happen until then.

[jlauderdal]

so it looks like the transition from hurricane season to fall/winter is going to all happen over FL this weekend and with a bang. After this cane goes by and this strong troughs digs shortly after, it appears most of the GOM is going to get cooled down considerably.

yep, just like a blizzard up north, they blow through with lots of wind and precip and then a sharp cool down behind the front. something tells me there will be a bunch of tornados with this one considering the dynamics that will be in place. lets hope I am wrong.

[Bgator]

Looking at visible satellite imagery this afternoon I am having a hard time buying the quick north to north east movement that is projected in the NHC forecast. I know the visible imagery is not a best tool for steering winds aloft but we sometimes use it to tell when hurricanes are feeling boundaries. Looking at the outer bands of the Wilma I can not see any of them feeling any effects of the front just yet. And looking at visible sat. this afternoon it seems to have taken more of a westerly component. My question is what are the chances that the storm has hitting the Yucutan and what would be a forecasted track in the Gulf of Mexico if a hit on the Yucutan would happen. Also IF Wilma were to gain its Major Hurricane status wouldn't it have a harder time in doing the turn the NHC calls for?

Well, the from is in trhe west coast so thats not effecting it yet! The high has weakened and its moved a bit more to the south than forecasted but nothing huge!

[artist]

the trough won't be here til Friday.

[timeflow]

This says 1800z, but I'm not sure all of these are in fact 1800z for 10/18. A group of models appear focused on south central. Another group takes it far south. It's maddening, I want more zzzz's. Need more guidance. When are the individual 1800 runs going to trickle in?

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png

[inotherwords]

I'm not scaring people.

Should Wilma follow the track as it stands today, it is going to hit the lower 1/3 of FL very hard.

Of course that is if it follows the track and keeps the predicited intensity....

lots of things CAN happen until then.

I'm still waiting to read your rationale about why this WILL (not might) rival Jeanne and Frances in intensity after it crosses the entire state.

I was on the other end of Jeanne and Frances after they both crossed the state, closer to Jeanne's exit than Frances's. I had a few bushes and saplings blown over and that was it.

Dial it down.

[El Nino]

970 Mb and 75 knts at flight level, so 68 or am I wrong ? Not so strong, this pressure supports almost a cat2 I think. Maybe when the eye will build with his wall, it will become stronger and bomb.

[DESTRUCTION5]

970 Mb and 75 knts at flight level, so 68 or am I wrong ? Not so strong, this pressure supports almost a cat2 I think. Maybe when the eye will build with his wall, it will become stronger and bomb.

Agree..Its about Ready to Bomb...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Its acting like Katrina...Pressure fallen fast while the winds don't pick up...Then the next day BOOM!

[artist]

Inotherwords - go read the tropical analysis forum



from Honduras-

Update
From: "Charles B. Powers" <cbpowers at hondusoft.com>
Date: Tue, 18 Oct 2005 14:05:33 -0600

Good Afternoon from Roatan, Bay Islands of Honduras. Wilma is making herself know to us right now. We have had rain on and off for the last 2 days but since about 11 am it has been raining and blowing constantly. We are in a feeder band on the southwest side of the storm now. Wind is 31 mph gusting to 46 mph out of the northwest. Raining is falling at the rate of 1.6 inches per hour. The storm is predicted to move to the northwest but one of the hurricane center forecasters said the "M" word this morning - Mitch. Its been almost 7 years to the week since that storm devastated Guanaja and mainland Honduras and we are all just praying and hoping Wilma does move NW and not decide to pull a reverse on us. The webcam is up and running at http://www.lagovistascuba.com and will be on line as long as we have power and the enough fuel for the generator.

Fran

http://www.stormcarib.com

[txwatcher91]

970 Mb and 75 knts at flight level, so 68 or am I wrong ? Not so strong, this pressure supports almost a cat2 I think. Maybe when the eye will build with his wall, it will become stronger and bomb.

Agree..Its about Ready to Bomb...

Look how large it already is on infrared

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/IR4/20.jpg

Also, on this visible loop it appears to be expanding rapidly. Click on the floater over the Carribean.

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/RAMM/Rmsd ... PICAL.html

[mascpa]

You have to remember that Palm Beach County was on the S. side of both of those storms so they didn't get the worst of them. If this storm passes just south of Palm Beach (which it might) or over Palm Beach, it will be very bad here I'm afraid (the rapid forward speed and the Everglades will hardly weaken it I'm afraid). [/quote]

I could be wrong but I believe that since this storm will be approaching from the west and not the east, that the SE quadrant will be the strongest, not the NE quadrant as is usual. Is this correct?

[skysummit]

You have to remember that Palm Beach County was on the S. side of both of those storms so they didn't get the worst of them. If this storm passes just south of Palm Beach (which it might) or over Palm Beach, it will be very bad here I'm afraid (the rapid forward speed and the Everglades will hardly weaken it I'm afraid).

I could be wrong but I believe that since this storm will be approaching from the west and not the east, that the SE quadrant will be the strongest, not the NE quadrant as is usual. Is this correct?

It's not the "NE Quadrant" that's the strongest.....always remember the "Right Front Quadrant".

[JamesFromMaine2]

I don't think we will be seeing any major changes in wind speed today! The system is so tight it really doesn't have much room to keep increasing the winds speeds! I think that through out the day we will see her become better organized, pressure will prob. continue to fall, and later this evening she will develop her eye which she has been trying to do all day today! Then through out the night she will go through a ERC and tomorrow she will bomb! Thats what I think will happen today and tomorrow!

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

A very large windfield is likely...

[mascpa]

Well I "sort of" had it right