Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

[Scorpion]

It seriously has the look of Rita and Katrina before they bombed. Cat 4 IMO is a definite, with a 5 being a possibility. This is just the best looking Cat 1 I have ever seen. What are the DVORAK numbers?

[HURAKAN]

LOOKIN' GOOD!

[Brent]

HURRICANE WILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL242005
2100Z TUE OCT 18 2005

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE
WATCH FOR THE PROVINCES OF MATANZAS WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL
RIO...AND FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ALLEN TO CABO
CATOCHE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF WILMA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 81.5W AT 18/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT.......120NE 75SE 60SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 81.5W AT 18/2100Z
AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 81.1W

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 17.3N 82.3W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 75SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 18.2N 83.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 90SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 19.1N 84.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 90SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 20.2N 85.2W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 22.5N 85.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 25.0N 82.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 30.5N 75.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.7N 81.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILMA ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT TUE OCT 18 2005

...HURRICANE WATCHES ISSUED FOR CUBA AND MEXICO...

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE
WATCH FOR THE PROVINCES OF MATANZAS WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL
RIO...AND FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ALLEN TO CABO
CATOCHE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF WILMA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 81.5 WEST OR ABOUT 180 MILES...
290 KM... SOUTH OF GRAND CAYMAN.

WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A
TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND WILMA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 140 MILES...220 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES.

WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5
TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...OVER THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS...JAMAICA...HAITI...AND CUBA. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...ARE
POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...16.7 N... 81.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 80 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 970 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Given HUGE size- this system is unlikely to weaken rapidly like
Charley did as it moved inland--- it will weaken a little,
but not a whole lot once landfall occurs. Also
keep in mind with large storms, they have access
to water on both sides of the FL peninsula. It may only
weaken one category as it crosses the state.


Wherever this makes landfall....a large area will see powerful winds.
On current tracks and models a large majority of the FL Peninsula
could experience heavy winds/rain-- tropical storm force winds at least
and hurricane force of course closer to the center

[truballer#1]

LOOKS LIKE ITS GOING TO EXPLODE

[truballer#1]

LOOKS LIKE ITS ABOUT TO HAVE AN EYE

[floridahurricaneguy]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Given HUGE size- this system is unlikely to weaken rapidly like
Charley did as it moved inland--- it will weaken a little,
but not a whole lot once landfall occurs. Also
keep in mind with large storms, they have access
to water on both sides of the FL peninsula. It may only
weaken one category as it crosses the state.


Wherever this makes landfall....a large area will see powerful winds.
On current tracks and models a large majority of the FL Peninsula
could experience heavy winds/rain-- tropical storm force winds at least
and hurricane force of course closer to the center

With its large wind field, do you think Tampa Bay will easily get TS winds assuming path stays same and doesnt shift north like some think?

Matt

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Given HUGE size- this system is unlikely to weaken rapidly like
Charley did as it moved inland--- it will weaken a little,
but not a whole lot once landfall occurs. Also
keep in mind with large storms, they have access
to water on both sides of the FL peninsula. It may only
weaken one category as it crosses the state.


Wherever this makes landfall....a large area will see powerful winds.
On current tracks and models a large majority of the FL Peninsula
could experience heavy winds/rain-- tropical storm force winds at least
and hurricane force of course closer to the center

With its large wind field, do you think Tampa Bay will easily get TS winds assuming path stays same and doesnt shift north like some think?

Matt

According to some professional mets and the local NWS discussions
yes tropical storm winds likely even on current track...

[JTD]

Totally going to explode.

Katrina and Dennis taught me to watch the pressure more than the windspeed as there is always a long lag. With pressure drops like that and if they continue, it's a certainty that Wilma will be a very powerful 'cane.

[cjrciadt]

Expect this to change greatly later.

[Brent]

HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT TUE OCT 18 2005

AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT HAS JUST MADE ITS FIRST PASS
THROUGH THE CENTER OF WILMA...FINDING A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF
970 MB AND MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS...SO FAR...OF 75 KT. A
DROPSONDE IN THE NORTH EYEWALL REPORTED SURFACE WINDS OF 64 KT.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 77 KT. THE
ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 70 KT IS A BLEND OF THE SATELLITE AND
RECONNAISSANCE OBSERVATIONS.

THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE THINKING REGARDING THE INTENSITY
FORECAST. WILMA CONTINUES TO HAVE VERY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW
CHANNELS TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER. OCEANIC HEAT
CONTENT AHEAD OF WILMA IS HIGH...INCLUDING IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO. IN THE SHORT TERM...THE ONLY INHIBITING FACTOR IS THE
DRY AIR MASS IN THE GULF AND EXTREME NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. A HIGH
LIKELIHOOD OF RAPID STRENGTHENING CONTINUES TO BE INDICATED BY THE
SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX. WILMA COULD BE A MAJOR HURRICANE
BY THIS TIME TOMORROW...AND REACH CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH BEFORE
ENTERING THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. AS WILMA ACCELERATES
NORTHEASTWARD IN THE GULF...WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE
SLIGHTLY...BUT AT THIS TIME DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE SUFFICIENT TO
WEAKEN WILMA VERY QUICKLY. HOWEVER...IT IS WORTH REMEMBERING THAT
THERE IS LITTLE SKILL IN LONG-RANGE INTENSITY FORECASTS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/7. THERE HAS ALSO BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE
TRACK FORECAST THINKING. THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT HAD BEEN
OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST CONTINUES NORTHEASTWARD...AND AS
IT PROGRESSES HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN...ALLOWING WILMA TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
AND ENTER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN ABOUT THREE DAYS. ONCE
WILMA MOVES NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AND ENCOUNTERS
MID-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW...AN ACCELERATION NORTHEASTWARD IS
EXPECTED. ONLY VERY MODEST SHIFTS HAVE OCCURRED WITH THE
TIGHTLY-CLUSTERED MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE...WHICH...AT THIS TIME...IS
FOCUSING THE LONG-TERM THREAT TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND REMAINS CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.


FORECASTER FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 18/2100Z 16.7N 81.5W 70 KT
12HR VT 19/0600Z 17.3N 82.3W 90 KT
24HR VT 19/1800Z 18.2N 83.5W 100 KT
36HR VT 20/0600Z 19.1N 84.5W 110 KT
48HR VT 20/1800Z 20.2N 85.2W 115 KT
72HR VT 21/1800Z 22.5N 85.5W 110 KT
96HR VT 22/1800Z 25.0N 82.5W 100 KT
120HR VT 23/1800Z 30.5N 75.5W 70 KT

[DESTRUCTION5]

HOLY FRIGGIN CRAP

Discussion says CAT 4 with Little Decrease in Intensity beforee landfall...

[f5]

watch out Flordia Wilma is looks like shes about to pull a Katrina/Rita

[fuzzyblow]

Well I "sort of" had it right

Yes, It's just the way they say that I think, centre-writh-left for north em. and the oposite for south em., centre-left-writh.

[feederband]

Whats the chances of she just keep on going wnw and crashing into land and being blowned apart...?

[SkeetoBite]

HOLY FRIGGIN CRAP

Discussion says CAT 4 with Little Decrease in Intensity beforee landfall...

I was thinking the "exact" same thing...

[wxman57]

Water temps are only warm enough to support a CAT 2 at the most.

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1 ... 0atsst.png

Actually, they're warm enough to support a Cat 4/5:
http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL

[jrod]

Remember Mitch? Same time of the year, same area, and about the same projected path Mitch had before it bombed if my memory is right.

I dont think it will become the monster Mitch was(i really hope not) but I do think it has the potential to be a strong cat 4. This could be the Tampa Bay storm no one wants to see, in my opinion.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Cloud tops are colder then Katrina or Rita's.