lets be logical here

[hurricanedude]

until this thing makes its N and NE turn...lets assume ALL of FLORIDA needs to be concerned...a 5 day forecast has a margin of error greater than 300miles...so to focus on south florida... and not the rest of the state is not smart....a shift north or south by just 100 miles can change the weather in your backyard tremendously. sure the models are pointing at south FL...but just 36 hours ago..they were in the yuky!
If I were a betting man I would say they will flip flop tremendously until the N and NE motion commences this weekend

[bucman1]

Couldn't agree more-There will be plenty of flip flopping with the models,

also wasn't it last year we didn't know charleys land fall until two hours before!!!

[DESTRUCTION5]

until this thing makes its N and NE turn...lets assume ALL of FLORIDA needs to be concerned...a 5 day forecast has a margin of error greater than 300miles...so to focus on south florida... and not the rest of the state is not smart....a shift north or south by just 100 miles can change the weather in your backyard tremendously. sure the models are pointing at south FL...but just 36 hours ago..they were in the yuky!
If I were a betting man I would say they will flip flop tremendously until the N and NE motion commences this weekend

On the other hand lets be logical...The models are only flipping back and forth 50-75 miles...

[jax]

until this thing makes its N and NE turn...lets assume ALL of FLORIDA needs to be concerned...a 5 day forecast has a margin of error greater than 300miles...so to focus on south florida... and not the rest of the state is not smart....a shift north or south by just 100 miles can change the weather in your backyard tremendously. sure the models are pointing at south FL...but just 36 hours ago..they were in the yuky!
If I were a betting man I would say they will flip flop tremendously until the N and NE motion commences this weekend

On the other hand lets be logical...The models are only flipping back and forth 50-75 miles...

and with the West motion the storm is now taking.... all the models are
north of the current location... we all can remember Katrina... 250 miles
off at 72 hours.

[hurricanedude]

logical....its a model...a computer....want to risk your life on a computer? go ahead...its guidence..not a forecast.....didnt the models have Katrina hitting the FL panhandle? get my point?????????

[Terrell]

logical....its a model...a computer....want to risk your life on a computer? go ahead...its guidence..not a forecast.....didnt the models have Katrina hitting the FL panhandle? get my point?????????

You have a good point, here. I remember how the models for Katrina (prior to her initial FL landfall) had her going across the peninsula then turning north and hitting the FL Panhandle. They also forcasted her intensity at both landfalls as a cat 1 'cane. We all know what she ultimately did was quite different from the pre first landfall models.

[DESTRUCTION5]

until this thing makes its N and NE turn...lets assume ALL of FLORIDA needs to be concerned...a 5 day forecast has a margin of error greater than 300miles...so to focus on south florida... and not the rest of the state is not smart....a shift north or south by just 100 miles can change the weather in your backyard tremendously. sure the models are pointing at south FL...but just 36 hours ago..they were in the yuky!
If I were a betting man I would say they will flip flop tremendously until the N and NE motion commences this weekend

On the other hand lets be logical...The models are only flipping back and forth 50-75 miles...

and with the West motion the storm is now taking.... all the models are
north of the current location... we all can remember Katrina... 250 miles
off at 72 hours.

Oct Storms are way easier to Project than Sept...Steering flows are cut and dry..

[jax]

until this thing makes its N and NE turn...lets assume ALL of FLORIDA needs to be concerned...a 5 day forecast has a margin of error greater than 300miles...so to focus on south florida... and not the rest of the state is not smart....a shift north or south by just 100 miles can change the weather in your backyard tremendously. sure the models are pointing at south FL...but just 36 hours ago..they were in the yuky!
If I were a betting man I would say they will flip flop tremendously until the N and NE motion commences this weekend

On the other hand lets be logical...The models are only flipping back and forth 50-75 miles...

and with the West motion the storm is now taking.... all the models are
north of the current location... we all can remember Katrina... 250 miles
off at 72 hours.

Oct Storms are way easier to Project than Sept...Steering flows are cut and dry..

and that explains why the modles have been all over the place the last few days?

[inotherwords]

logical....its a model...a computer....want to risk your life on a computer? go ahead...its guidence..not a forecast.....didnt the models have Katrina hitting the FL panhandle? get my point?????????

You have a good point, here. I remember how the models for Katrina (prior to her initial FL landfall) had her going across the peninsula then turning north and hitting the FL Panhandle. They also forcasted her intensity at both landfalls as a cat 1 'cane. We all know what she ultimately did was quite different from the pre first landfall models.

This is why I like the NHC forecasts. They have been very accurate this year and I expect they'll have a good handle on this one too.

The trough/turn timing though...is going to be tricky to predict, IMO...for anyone. Everybody in the 3 day cone will need to be prepared. The biggest problem with Charley was from people who paid attention to the line and not the cone. (Says she, who was then, and will undoubtedly again, be in the 3 day cone for this storm!)

[djtil]

logically we have plenty of time to wait and see.

[sunny]

logically we have plenty of time to wait and see.

Don't get caught off guard there. We thought the same thing with Katrina. You are being told one thing, and then all heck breaks loose and you are trying to get out of dodge on a dime. It ain't fun.

[MBismyPlayground]

I guess the whole point is this: No one is safe in this area, until it is gone. Hopefully all the people in W. Fla. have a hurricane plan, and are making some "just in case" arrangements. There is absolutely NO SENSE in taking even a small chance on this. Katrinia should be a learning tool for ALL of us. Ya'll be safe and take care of yourselves!

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The models could move south, they could move north, and surprise
people.

The landfall point is 4 days away. Anywhere in the Cone (From
Cuba to North of Tampa) is fair game at this point 4 days out.

EVERYONE in these areas should keep a close eye on Wilma.
Again- any spot in that large cone should keep a very close
eye...the models can shift...or they may not shift...we will
just have to wait and see.

4 Days before IVAN struck models had it coming to Tampa Bay...
then they shifted gradually to the location of final landfall.


We just don't know right now. Nobody should let their guards down.