Track shift north?

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Josephine96

Track shift north?

#1 Postby Josephine96 » Tue Oct 18, 2005 5:37 pm

No.. I'm not saying it's gonna do that :lol:

I'm just asking, what do you think the odds are of the track shifting north? Or will it stay right where it is..?

I think it may jump around a couple more times..
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Foladar0

#2 Postby Foladar0 » Tue Oct 18, 2005 5:39 pm

It's four days away, of course it's going to jump around a bit, but it won't go too far north, such as Orlando, but maybe towards the Jupiter, West Palm area down south to the Miami area. Though, I'd wish it'd just go to the panhandle or out to sea..anywhere away from me.
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Josephine96

#3 Postby Josephine96 » Tue Oct 18, 2005 5:40 pm

Foladar sounds set that the track won't include the Central Fla area lol
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Re: Track shift north?

#4 Postby Bgator » Tue Oct 18, 2005 5:41 pm

Josephine96 wrote:No.. I'm not saying it's gonna do that :lol:

I'm just asking, what do you think the odds are of the track shifting north? Or will it stay right where it is..?

I think it may jump around a couple more times..


I say it will jump but stay in the general area from sarasota to Tip of Fla!
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#5 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Tue Oct 18, 2005 5:44 pm

Anywhere in that cone is fair game 4 days in advance.
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#6 Postby hurricanefloyd5 » Tue Oct 18, 2005 5:51 pm

Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:Anywhere in that cone is fair game 4 days in advance.


including orlando
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#7 Postby weatherwindow » Tue Oct 18, 2005 5:54 pm

Foladar0 wrote:It's four days away, of course it's going to jump around a bit, but it won't go too far north, such as Orlando, but maybe towards the Jupiter, West Palm area down south to the Miami area. Though, I'd wish it'd just go to the panhandle or out to sea..anywhere away from me.
....ditto....i am hoping for a very hard right turn, ala michelle. unfortunately, i don't think the track will really settle down to a well defined focus, like MW, until perhaps 48 hours before landfall. even more unfortunately, monroe cty emerg management will have to make a call on this storm late wed nite/very early thurs morning in order to allow for the expected evac call. thank god, billy wagner always errors on the side of caution.......rich
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#8 Postby MetroMike » Tue Oct 18, 2005 7:16 pm

As us Floridians remember that last year hurricane Charley was supposed to hit Tampa Bay but veered off in only 3 hours time. Its like trying to predict where a little stick will go in a stream of water.

The atmosphere is somewhat like a river of air. Just a little ripple in the air can cause systems to turn one way or the other.
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#9 Postby hicksta » Tue Oct 18, 2005 7:18 pm

Most of the time the track is south of where she hits
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#10 Postby rockyman » Tue Oct 18, 2005 7:57 pm

hicksta wrote:Most of the time the track is south of where she hits


Is this an opinion or fact? Charley immediately comes to mind.
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#11 Postby johngaltfla » Tue Oct 18, 2005 8:20 pm

hicksta wrote:Most of the time the track is south of where she hits


Uh, I don't buy that yet. Let me see the influence and intensity of the low before I buy that one....
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#12 Postby Nimbus » Tue Oct 18, 2005 10:04 pm

Wilma is intensifying more than predicted, it will be interesting to see what the models do initialized with a cat 4 or 5 storm instead of a cat 3.

Larger storms create their own environment and build high pressure domes that can be resistant to troughs.

By morning the model runs may start to look a little different.
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Scorpion

#13 Postby Scorpion » Tue Oct 18, 2005 10:20 pm

The 11 PM track has not shifted north.
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#14 Postby Brent » Tue Oct 18, 2005 10:21 pm

Scorpion wrote:The 11 PM track has not shifted north.


It actually went a little south... Chokoloskee to over your head.
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#15 Postby floridahurricaneguy » Tue Oct 18, 2005 10:30 pm

I am nervous now that I may be wrong. I keep saying shift north but its not happening yet or to early to see that?

Mattt
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#16 Postby arkess7 » Tue Oct 18, 2005 10:31 pm

Brent wrote:
Scorpion wrote:The 11 PM track has not shifted north.


It actually went a little south... Chokoloskee to over your head.



I dont care .....what all yall say....... :roll:

we need to see what's gona happen in the next 'few days'..IMO


stay away from tampa bay.........im north about 80 miles inland NE from tampa and i really care......

i dont want another frances repeat.......... :flag: :na:
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#17 Postby gtalum » Tue Oct 18, 2005 10:31 pm

floridahurricaneguy wrote:I am nervous now that I may be wrong. I keep saying shift north but its not happening yet or to early to see that?


You're NERVOUS that you might be wrong and the storm might not be headed right for you? You mean you actually WANT this thing to hit you?
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#18 Postby jkt21787 » Tue Oct 18, 2005 10:33 pm

gtalum wrote:
floridahurricaneguy wrote:I am nervous now that I may be wrong. I keep saying shift north but its not happening yet or to early to see that?


You're NERVOUS that you might be wrong and the storm might not be headed right for you? You mean you actually WANT this thing to hit you?

Unfortunately many of his comments have made me think that. I'm not sure of course.
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#19 Postby floridahurricaneguy » Tue Oct 18, 2005 10:33 pm

gtalum wrote:
floridahurricaneguy wrote:I am nervous now that I may be wrong. I keep saying shift north but its not happening yet or to early to see that?


You're NERVOUS that you might be wrong and the storm might not be headed right for you? You mean you actually WANT this thing to hit you?


No not at all. I just kinda hoped I got a forecast right

Matt
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#20 Postby arkess7 » Tue Oct 18, 2005 10:47 pm

arkess7 wrote:
Brent wrote:
Scorpion wrote:The 11 PM track has not shifted north.


It actually went a little south... Chokoloskee to over your head.



I dont care .....what all yall say....... :roll:

we need to see what's gona happen in the next 'few days'..IMO


stay away from tampa bay.........im north about 80 miles inland NE from tampa and i really care......

i dont want another frances repeat.......... :flag: :na:



Frances was from the east.......... :P....DUHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!! dont want anymore power outages for a couple days......

STAY AWAY........STAY AWAY......FROM TAMPA BAY!!!!!!! :grr: :grr: :grr:




still dont want Wilma!!!
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