My return to forecasts, Wilma #1: Cat 3 on West Coast..

[Josephine96]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

EXPERIMENTAL HURRICANE FORECAST
HURRICANE WILMA
NJN WEATHER CENTER
730 PM TUES OCT 18TH 2005

Hurricane Wilma is picking up speed as she continues her possible journey towards the state of Florida. She has 80 mph winds at the 5 pm advisory. Wilma is in an environment where she may gain strength before losing back some of it as she approaches the West Florida coast.

Wilma is expected to continue to grow, due to an apparent lack of shear or at least the 83-86 degree waters. These waters are more than warm enough to sustain a hurricane.

Wilma is currently moving WNW, she is expected to begin to feel the effects of an approaching cold front, which will send her shooting like a slingshot towards the Sunshine state.

Where she makes landfall all depends on how far north she is when the front approaches. This will either be a Central or South Florida storm most likely.

My experimental forecast has Wilma making landfall just south of Sarasota, before making a NE jog across the peninsula, with the possibility of bringing a lot of winds and rain to the inland peninsula.

Here is my experimental 5 day outlook on Wilma:
Tonight: Gaining strength as she grows. Max winds: 85 mph
Wednesday: Expanding in size and in strength, paying close attention. Max winds: 95 mph
Thursday: Watches and warnings possibly for Florida. Max winds: 110 mph
Friday: Bonafide cat 3 as she approaches, warnings possibly from Tampa south. Max winds: 120 mph
Saturday: Making landfall near Sarasota, cutting across the peninsula. Max winds: 115 mph

[johngaltfla]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

EXPERIMENTAL HURRICANE FORECAST
HURRICANE WILMA
NJN WEATHER CENTER
730 PM TUES OCT 18TH 2005

Hurricane Wilma is picking up speed as she continues her possible journey towards the state of Florida. She has 80 mph winds at the 5 pm advisory. Wilma is in an environment where she may gain strength before losing back some of it as she approaches the West Florida coast.

Wilma is expected to continue to grow, due to an apparent lack of shear or at least the 83-86 degree waters. These waters are more than warm enough to sustain a hurricane.

Wilma is currently moving WNW, she is expected to begin to feel the effects of an approaching cold front, which will send her shooting like a slingshot towards the Sunshine state.

Where she makes landfall all depends on how far north she is when the front approaches. This will either be a Central or South Florida storm most likely.

My experimental forecast has Wilma making landfall just south of Sarasota, before making a NE jog across the peninsula, with the possibility of bringing a lot of winds and rain to the inland peninsula.

Here is my experimental 5 day outlook on Wilma:
Tonight: Gaining strength as she grows. Max winds: 85 mph
Wednesday: Expanding in size and in strength, paying close attention. Max winds: 95 mph
Thursday: Watches and warnings possibly for Florida. Max winds: 110 mph
Friday: Bonafide cat 3 as she approaches, warnings possibly from Tampa south. Max winds: 120 mph
Saturday: Making landfall near Sarasota, cutting across the peninsula. Max winds: 115 mph

Nothing personal, but I don't like your forecast. Not one single bit.

[Josephine96]

It's ok.. No problem

[inotherwords]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

EXPERIMENTAL HURRICANE FORECAST
HURRICANE WILMA
NJN WEATHER CENTER
730 PM TUES OCT 18TH 2005

Hurricane Wilma is picking up speed as she continues her possible journey towards the state of Florida. She has 80 mph winds at the 5 pm advisory. Wilma is in an environment where she may gain strength before losing back some of it as she approaches the West Florida coast.

Wilma is expected to continue to grow, due to an apparent lack of shear or at least the 83-86 degree waters. These waters are more than warm enough to sustain a hurricane.

Wilma is currently moving WNW, she is expected to begin to feel the effects of an approaching cold front, which will send her shooting like a slingshot towards the Sunshine state.

Where she makes landfall all depends on how far north she is when the front approaches. This will either be a Central or South Florida storm most likely.

My experimental forecast has Wilma making landfall just south of Sarasota, before making a NE jog across the peninsula, with the possibility of bringing a lot of winds and rain to the inland peninsula.

Here is my experimental 5 day outlook on Wilma:
Tonight: Gaining strength as she grows. Max winds: 85 mph
Wednesday: Expanding in size and in strength, paying close attention. Max winds: 95 mph
Thursday: Watches and warnings possibly for Florida. Max winds: 110 mph
Friday: Bonafide cat 3 as she approaches, warnings possibly from Tampa south. Max winds: 120 mph
Saturday: Making landfall near Sarasota, cutting across the peninsula. Max winds: 115 mph

Nothing personal, but I don't like your forecast. Not one single bit.

Me either. But it is possible.

[fci]

Well, I salute you for making a forecast!
Do I agree with everything you say? No.
But it is very sound and anyone can quibble all they want with others' opinions.

FWIW, I think it will be south of Sarasota; along the lines of between Cape Coral and the Southern tip of the state.

But going back to your forecast; great job of expressing your opinions and MAJOR kudos for having the guts to put it out there.

IF anyone is even THINKING about bashing..... put out YOUR own forecast or GO AWAY!!!

[inotherwords]

Well, I salute you for making a forecast!
Do I agree with everything you say? No.
But it is very sound and anyone can quibble all they want with others' opinions.

FWIW, I think it will be south of Sarasota; along the lines of between Cape Coral and the Southern tip of the state.

But going back to your forecast; great job of expressing your opinions and MAJOR kudos for having the guts to put it out there.

IF anyone is even THINKING about bashing..... put out YOUR own forecast or GO AWAY!!!

It does take guts to post an amateur forecast. Good for you, Josephine. And thanks for putting in the disclaimer.

[tronbunny]

good for you for posting your forecast, John!

I'm still a chicken and find it easier to be a "me too-er"

[seaswing]

Yea John!

[Josephine96]

I take it, people are happy I'm back to writing these

[Brent]

About as possible as any other forecast...

[Josephine96]

such is true Brent, so is true..

[MysticOne]

Enjoyed the forecast. I hope you make many more (next season!!).

[Scorpion]

Very weak on intensity. Track sounds good though.