Wilma's threat to the Central Fla area..?

[fci]

If it follows the current NHC track, I don't see Tampa/Orlando seeing much of anything(maybe a few squalls), certainly no TS force sustained winds.

Brent:
Thank you for adding some sanity to the endless inquiries about Tampa.
The models DO NOT show the storm getting that far north!

[floridahurricaneguy]

Too bad. Not that I wanted it here but I sure was hoping my prediction would be somewhat accurate. Wont be using wilma for hurricane project I guess. Unforturnately I wasnt in mississippi at my house there when Katrina or I would have done that

Matt

[Noah]

If it follows the current NHC track, I don't see Tampa/Orlando seeing much of anything(maybe a few squalls), certainly no TS force sustained winds.

What about sarasota? i see the models going even south of sarasota.

[inotherwords]

If it follows the current NHC track, I don't see Tampa/Orlando seeing much of anything(maybe a few squalls), certainly no TS force sustained winds.

What about sarasota? i see the models going even south of sarasota.

We are firmly in the cone, Noah, which means we remain at risk as long as we are there.

We need to be prepared for a Cat 1-3 storm at landfall, and if the storm blows up to a 4 or 5 in the Gulf, we need to be prepared for maximum storm surge, which is about 16 feet.

[Brent]

If it follows the current NHC track, I don't see Tampa/Orlando seeing much of anything(maybe a few squalls), certainly no TS force sustained winds.

What about sarasota? i see the models going even south of sarasota.

Similar, probably a little worse, but still not that bad(in the overall picture).

UNDERSTAND... THIS IS 4 DAYS OUT. The track can change. I'm just saying IF it follows the CURRENT NHC track.

[Brent]

Too bad. Not that I wanted it here but I sure was hoping my prediction would be somewhat accurate. Wont be using wilma for hurricane project I guess. Unforturnately I wasnt in mississippi at my house there when Katrina or I would have done that

Matt

You don't want a hurricane hitting Tampa... BELIEVE me.

If you really want it, go chase it.

[WeatherEmperor]

Too bad. Not that I wanted it here but I sure was hoping my prediction would be somewhat accurate. Wont be using wilma for hurricane project I guess. Unforturnately I wasnt in mississippi at my house there when Katrina or I would have done that

Matt

You don't want a hurricane hitting Tampa... BELIEVE me.

If you really want it, go chase it.

I agree. That would be New Orleans 2.

<RICKY>

[LanceW]

Someone else posted this in another thread. This would be a lot worse for Central Florida...

WHXX04 KWBC 182329
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

HURRICANE WILMA 24L

INITIAL TIME 18Z OCT 18

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 16.7 81.1 305./ 7.0
6 17.0 81.9 293./ 8.7
12 17.1 82.8 273./ 8.7
18 17.2 83.4 286./ 5.6
24 17.6 84.1 301./ 7.3
30 17.9 84.6 300./ 6.0
36 18.4 85.1 313./ 6.7
42 18.9 85.5 323./ 6.6
48 19.7 85.8 340./ 8.1
54 20.5 85.9 350./ 8.5
60 21.3 86.2 343./ 7.6
66 22.0 86.3 345./ 7.1
72 22.6 86.2 11./ 6.7
78 23.3 85.8 34./ 7.9
84 24.0 85.3 36./ 8.1
90 24.9 84.3 47./12.3
96 25.9 82.9 55./16.8
102 27.4 80.8 53./23.4
108 29.3 78.3 54./29.2
114 32.0 75.1 49./38.7
120 35.3 71.7 46./43.9
126 38.7 68.2 45./43.6

[MysticOne]

Yes... but if it goes way to the south, it won't matter. Tampa(especially) would be on the weak NW side. With a NE motion, the worst weather will be SOUTH of the eye.

The uncertainty in the track is what is causing the NWS to say what they are saying.

Now... that's not to say the track won't shift north.[/quote]

Brent, I am trying to learn all this, so please bear with me as I respect your knowledge. I was under the impression that the areas that saw the worst of the storm, were the ones located in the NE quadrant. Therefore, I would have thought that those North/East of a storm moving North/East would get the higher winds. What is it that I am missing in my understanding? Is it the fact that the storm is moving North East as well?

Thanks for helping me to understand this concept.

MysticOne

[gtalum]

MysticOne, it's actually the forward-right quadrant of a storm (in relation to its forward motion) that usually has the strongest winds. So a storm moving "backwards", ie west to east, will have it's strongest winds in the Southeast quadrant .

[MysticOne]

MysticOne, it's actually the forward-right quadrant of a storm (in relation to its forward motion) that usually has the strongest winds. So a storm moving "backwards", ie west to east, will have it's strongest winds in the Southeast quadrant .

Thank you very much for clarifying that for me! I have so much to learn, but this board is the most terrific place to do that!!

Thanks again,

MysticOne

[AL Chili Pepper]

Wow. I am supposed to be in Melbourne for 2 weeks starting Monday. Looks like things might get delayed.