Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

[O Town]

I still can not believe this is happening either. It is just now sinking in, even though it has been talked about for a few days. Now the likley hood of a Charley like senerio is unfolding, but it looks like with a much bigger storm. I don't want to start freaking out, but I am starting to get that same feeling I got last year with all the storms that came my way. We will just have to watch really closely and I guess start all the preparations. I don't want to wait till the last minute when all the gas and such is gone. Time to tell the old man to change the oil in the generator.

She is looking like she is taking off. I would not be surprised to see a cat 4 tomarrow afternoon.

[tronbunny]

Is it just me, everybody is talking about Tampa, Naples, Ft. Lauderdale, etc. but you cant ignore the fact that the models are shifting slightly S each run. If I was in the Keys I would be really nervous rate now. I know the NHC track is Naples to WPB rate now. The Ukmet, GFS, and BAM's are S of the peninsula. The other models are creeping S w/ each run. I trust the NHC and I am interested to hear Ortt's update.

I do not think anyone has given a pass to the keys.

If I were there, i'd be boarding up and packing, now..
probably would leave on 8am advisory.
Big question is where to evac to!

[cycloneye]

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

HURRICANE WILMA 24L

INITIAL TIME 18Z OCT 18

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 16.7 81.1 305./ 7.0
6 17.0 81.9 293./ 8.7
12 17.1 82.8 273./ 8.7
18 17.2 83.4 286./ 5.6
24 17.6 84.1 301./ 7.3
30 17.9 84.6 300./ 6.0
36 18.4 85.1 313./ 6.7
42 18.9 85.5 323./ 6.6
48 19.7 85.8 340./ 8.1
54 20.5 85.9 350./ 8.5
60 21.3 86.2 343./ 7.6
66 22.0 86.3 345./ 7.1
72 22.6 86.2 11./ 6.7
78 23.3 85.8 34./ 7.9
84 24.0 85.3 36./ 8.1
90 24.9 84.3 47./12.3
96 25.9 82.9 55./16.8
102 27.4 80.8 53./23.4
108 29.3 78.3 54./29.2
114 32.0 75.1 49./38.7
120 35.3 71.7 46./43.9
126 38.7 68.2 45./43.6


18Z GFDL has landfall just south of FT Myers.

[DESTRUCTION5]

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

HURRICANE WILMA 24L

INITIAL TIME 18Z OCT 18

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 16.7 81.1 305./ 7.0
6 17.0 81.9 293./ 8.7
12 17.1 82.8 273./ 8.7
18 17.2 83.4 286./ 5.6
24 17.6 84.1 301./ 7.3
30 17.9 84.6 300./ 6.0
36 18.4 85.1 313./ 6.7
42 18.9 85.5 323./ 6.6
48 19.7 85.8 340./ 8.1
54 20.5 85.9 350./ 8.5
60 21.3 86.2 343./ 7.6
66 22.0 86.3 345./ 7.1
72 22.6 86.2 11./ 6.7
78 23.3 85.8 34./ 7.9
84 24.0 85.3 36./ 8.1
90 24.9 84.3 47./12.3
96 25.9 82.9 55./16.8
102 27.4 80.8 53./23.4
108 29.3 78.3 54./29.2
114 32.0 75.1 49./38.7
120 35.3 71.7 46./43.9
126 38.7 68.2 45./43.6


18Z GFDL has landfall just south of FT Myers.

We got a Graphic yet Luis?

[Brent]

We got a Graphic yet Luis?

Pink line.

[cycloneye]

The dark blue line is the 18z GFDL.

[DESTRUCTION5]

We got a Graphic yet Luis?

Pink line.

Cool Brent..When do we get the new Ukie?

[inotherwords]

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

HURRICANE WILMA 24L

INITIAL TIME 18Z OCT 18

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 16.7 81.1 305./ 7.0
6 17.0 81.9 293./ 8.7
12 17.1 82.8 273./ 8.7
18 17.2 83.4 286./ 5.6
24 17.6 84.1 301./ 7.3
30 17.9 84.6 300./ 6.0
36 18.4 85.1 313./ 6.7
42 18.9 85.5 323./ 6.6
48 19.7 85.8 340./ 8.1
54 20.5 85.9 350./ 8.5
60 21.3 86.2 343./ 7.6
66 22.0 86.3 345./ 7.1
72 22.6 86.2 11./ 6.7
78 23.3 85.8 34./ 7.9
84 24.0 85.3 36./ 8.1
90 24.9 84.3 47./12.3
96 25.9 82.9 55./16.8
102 27.4 80.8 53./23.4
108 29.3 78.3 54./29.2
114 32.0 75.1 49./38.7
120 35.3 71.7 46./43.9
126 38.7 68.2 45./43.6


18Z GFDL has landfall just south of FT Myers.

From Tampa to Ft. Myers in less than one day. That's pretty significant. Wonder what tomorrow will bring?

[jpigott]

not to sound like a stoner but . . . dude that CDO is sick. Seriously, there are even "whites" showing up on the WV. Those are some really really cold cloud tops

[Brent]

We got a Graphic yet Luis?

Pink line.

Cool Brent..When do we get the new Ukie?

Well it runs at 0z... which was 25 minutes ago...

[Zadok]

Pink line.

That looks better for West Palm. :lol:

[cycloneye]

The dark blue line is the 18z GFDL.

[tronbunny]

Can someone please cheer on the A98E?


Hey, we need a little humor at this point, don'tcha think?

[jlauderdal]

Can someone please cheer on the A98E?


Hey, we need a little humor at this point, don'tcha think?

its a 50 point underdog but who knows

[floridahurricaneguy]

Wait has GFDL shifted north from last run?

Matt

[Brent]

No... it's actually identical(maybe even a hair south)

and BTW Luis: That's the 0z GFDL that is posted.

[margaritabeach]

Wait has GFDL shifted north from last run?

Matt

negative

[Trader Ron]

Can someone please cheer on the A98E?


Hey, we need a little humor at this point, don'tcha think?

its a 50 point underdog but who knows

Like the Hurricanes against Temple. Oops that was only 35 points.

[Ivanhater]

ummm, i noticed its continuing to go almost due west and missing the forecast points...is this another situation where it continues to keep going west like ivan and katrina?

[Brent]

ummm, i noticed its continuing to go almost due west and missing the forecast points...is this another situation where it continues to keep going west like ivan and katrina?

I'm noticing that... it's still going to make a sharp turn though. That's why I'm not completely buying this "skirt the tip of Florida" yet.