New theorem

[dhweather]

I'll call it Magee's Law

"Any hurricane that reaches category five strength in the Gulf of Mexico
should provide a category five storm surge at landfall, without regard to its landfalling intensity"

[inotherwords]

I'll call it Magee's Law

"Any hurricane that reaches category five strength in the Gulf of Mexico
should provide a category five storm surge at landfall, without regard to its landfalling intensity"

I'd say that's wise and astute advice.

Who is Magee?

[kevin]

How is this a theorem

[gpickett00]

Not always

[dhweather]

I'll call it Magee's Law

"Any hurricane that reaches category five strength in the Gulf of Mexico
should provide a category five storm surge at landfall, without regard to its landfalling intensity"

I'd say that's wise and astute advice.

Who is Magee?

Me.

As for "not always", effectively every GOMEX cat 5 has provided a cat 5
surge at landfall. Ivan, Rita, Katrina....

And I wisely left my escape clause "should"

[WindRunner]

It's a theorum because a law would have to be proven for all cases that could ever happen, and, since that is impossible, it is a very reliable and useful theorum.

[kevin]

No, a theorem is a mathematical law, which holds true in all cases as long as the postulates that it relies on are also true.

[dhweather]

from dictionary.com

4 entries found for theorem.
the·o·rem ( P ) Pronunciation Key (thr-m, thîrm)
n.
An idea that has been demonstrated as true or is assumed to be so demonstrable.
Mathematics. A proposition that has been or is to be proved on the basis of explicit assumptions.

[nequad]

Regardless of the definition of theorem, the above "theorem" does not hold water(no pun intended).

Lots of factors decide the size of surge at landfall. The list includes such things as angle of appraoch to the coast, slope of continental shelf on appraoch to the coast, etc...etc...etc.

Nevertheless, it's really a moot point anyway. If you live on the coast, and in the path of a landfalling hurricane, then you need to be prepared for the surge...no matter how high the surge may be. If there is the risk of any tidal surge in your location due to a landfalling hurricane then you need to take the neccesary precautions to save life and property.

[dhweather]

With the advent of data captured for Ivan by the Naval Research
Laboratory Stennis Space Center (NRL SSC), waves of 90 feet
were recorded just offshore by Dr. Bill Teague, thoughts are changing.

I firmly believe that the overwhelming odds are that once a hurricane
reaches the holy grail of "category five", the surge will maintain the
current Saffir-Simpson definition of category five surge when it makes
landfall, with very few exceptions.

[WindRunner]

No, a theorem is a mathematical law, which holds true in all cases as long as the postulates that it relies on are also true.

Theorum is not a law, it's only a theory (guess) that something is a law. It's not a law until it is proven.

But nequad is right. Topography above and below sea level is what has the ultimate effect on surge, no matter what the storm was in the past. It is, however, a large contributing factor.

[kevin]

You all are confusing mathematical terms with scientific terms. A theorem is a logically consistent extension of postulates. If those postulates are true, and the theorem is proven correct, it is basically a mathematical law.

This is a hypothesis.

Also, theories in science are bunches of hypothesis judged true and falsifiable gathered in a logical structure. A law is no more true than a theory, but laws are simple statements that have a mathematical formula.

[CajunMama]

oh goodness....squabbling over a word. That's a good statement to remember dh! One that will always keep you on your toes during the season.

[weatherwindow]

With the advent of data captured for Ivan by the Naval Research
Laboratory Stennis Space Center (NRL SSC), waves of 90 feet
were recorded just offshore by Dr. Bill Teague, thoughts are changing.

I firmly believe that the overwhelming odds are that once a hurricane
reaches the holy grail of "category five", the surge will maintain the
current Saffir-Simpson definition of category five surge when it makes
landfall, with very few exceptions.

....i vote for magee's theorem ..let me add drew's corollary...magees's theorem is valid if category five winds persist long enough to produce a fully developed sea state...how bout that, dh ....rich

[kevin]

oh goodness....squabbling over a word. That's a good statement to remember dh! One that will always keep you on your toes during the season.

Well its a mathematical word and in mathematics words mean everything. I really wasn't trying to be a pest. You all can call it whatever you want, but without drew's corollary it isn't going to be of good predictive value.

[bahamaswx]

With the advent of data captured for Ivan by the Naval Research
Laboratory Stennis Space Center (NRL SSC), waves of 90 feet
were recorded just offshore by Dr. Bill Teague, thoughts are changing.

I firmly believe that the overwhelming odds are that once a hurricane
reaches the holy grail of "category five", the surge will maintain the
current Saffir-Simpson definition of category five surge when it makes
landfall, with very few exceptions.

....i vote for magee's theorem ..let me add drew's corollary...magees's theorem is valid if category five winds persist long enough to produce a fully developed sea state...how bout that, dh ....rich

It cannot be fully proved without first using bahamaswx's lemma!

[kevin]

With the advent of data captured for Ivan by the Naval Research
Laboratory Stennis Space Center (NRL SSC), waves of 90 feet
were recorded just offshore by Dr. Bill Teague, thoughts are changing.

I firmly believe that the overwhelming odds are that once a hurricane
reaches the holy grail of "category five", the surge will maintain the
current Saffir-Simpson definition of category five surge when it makes
landfall, with very few exceptions.

....i vote for magee's theorem ..let me add drew's corollary...magees's theorem is valid if category five winds persist long enough to produce a fully developed sea state...how bout that, dh ....rich

It cannot be fully proved without first using bahamaswx's lemma!

QED

[CajunMama]

good gosh...it doesn't matter schmatter what it is.....it was an IDEA that dh came up with with which you guys have to pick to death.

[Brent]

WHO CARES WHAT THE HECK IT IS?

[jimbo]

I'll call it Magee's Law

"Any hurricane that reaches category five strength in the Gulf of Mexico
should provide a category five storm surge at landfall, without regard to its landfalling intensity"

I think the point here is to get the heck out of Dodge if you live below the Cat 5 line, wherever that is along your section f the coast. We all can see the different topographies of the shelf and the shape of the coast that can exacerbate or lessen the effect that the MGC and LA endured. This does not lessen the danger of ignoring a worst case senarion and should be taken to heart.

My 2 cents..........