Hurricane Wilma Recon Discussion Thread

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dhweather
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#261 Postby dhweather » Tue Oct 18, 2005 6:43 pm

8 PM EDT TUE OCT 18 2005

...WILMA UNDERGOING RAPID INTENSIFICATION...

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF MATANZAS
WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A
HURRICANE WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO FROM PUNTA ALLEN TO CABO CATOCHE. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...
GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.


how low will she go?
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#262 Postby fci » Tue Oct 18, 2005 6:43 pm

How does 116 flight convert to surface?
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#263 Postby curtadams » Tue Oct 18, 2005 6:47 pm

senorpepr wrote:Well... maybe I was a bit conservative with my remarks about tomorrow morning...


Well, hurricanes don't normally drop 9 mb in ONE HOUR.
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#264 Postby inotherwords » Tue Oct 18, 2005 6:54 pm

Tropicswatcher wrote:Looks like we may have a Major Hurricane in our hands sooner than we thought.
Well, the sooner the better, so it can burn itself out earlier.
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#265 Postby dhweather » Tue Oct 18, 2005 6:56 pm

Mike - I presume that the increase in intensity correlates with the
increase in the D values?

David
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#266 Postby HenkL » Tue Oct 18, 2005 6:59 pm

Last picture for tonight (it's 2 AM in the morning here). I set the windspeed on 81 knots, assuming 80% of 101 knots flight level winds.
Image
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#267 Postby Tropicswatcher » Tue Oct 18, 2005 7:00 pm

inotherwords wrote:
Tropicswatcher wrote:Looks like we may have a Major Hurricane in our hands sooner than we thought.
Well, the sooner the better, so it can burn itself out earlier.


Yeah, and hopefully shear is going to be strong enough to rip this baby apart, when it gets closer to Florida. I got a lot of relatives in Miami, including my father.
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#268 Postby senorpepr » Tue Oct 18, 2005 7:07 pm

Recon is back at cruising altitude... goin' home.
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#269 Postby MiamiensisWx » Tue Oct 18, 2005 7:09 pm

When will the next RECON mission head out to Wilma? It is needed!
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#270 Postby senorpepr » Tue Oct 18, 2005 7:13 pm

CapeVerdeWave wrote:When will the next RECON mission head out to Wilma? It is needed!


The schedule's messed up because of acft problems earlier today.
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#271 Postby Brent » Tue Oct 18, 2005 7:14 pm

CapeVerdeWave wrote:When will the next RECON mission head out to Wilma? It is needed!


AF plane fix scheduled at 1:00am EDT... should have just left Dobbins.

But the problems earlier may delay that.
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#272 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 18, 2005 7:30 pm

They are returning to the base at Georgia.
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#273 Postby senorpepr » Tue Oct 18, 2005 7:39 pm

Next mission is taking off...
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#274 Postby Brent » Tue Oct 18, 2005 7:39 pm

senorpepr wrote:Next mission is taking off...


:hoola:

We ought to get a fix by 2am(no problems withstanding)
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#275 Postby WindRunner » Tue Oct 18, 2005 7:52 pm

Brent wrote:(no problems withstanding)


. . . the phrase of the week!
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#276 Postby Jim Cantore » Tue Oct 18, 2005 8:15 pm

Wilmas inensifying rapidly now

not what I want to hear
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#277 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Tue Oct 18, 2005 8:19 pm

I'm so sorry I was wrong about this hurricane reminding steady...Its going to bomb...In you can already start to see the larger eye which will appear. I think she is doing a Katrina. I'm so sorry I will eat crow now.
:cry:
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#278 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 18, 2005 8:30 pm

Those members who live in the west Floridas coast from Cedar key to Tampa,Sarasota,Ft Myers,Port Charlotte and the rest of the coast you can see the plane that is heading to Wilma as it will fly all down the coast.
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#279 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Oct 18, 2005 8:33 pm

By the way, last night at 8 PM the pressure was 989 mb, tonight at 8 PM, it was 954 mb. That's 35 mb in 24 hours, or ~1.46 mb per hour! Talk about explosive cyclogenesis!
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#280 Postby TreasureIslandFLGal » Tue Oct 18, 2005 8:35 pm

When would be your guess to see it going by Clearwater beaches?
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