Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

[Typhoon]

How long will Wilma's tiny eyewall last? Rita was able to get much stronger with a huge eyewall, and maintained Cat 5 intensity and reached a sub-900 pressure until there were concentric eyewalls. Rita could never organize itself well after that. Even when one eyewall was taking over, recon had reported that organization was poor. If Rita had come out of the ERC quickly, re-strengthening could have happened. If it's not long until Wilma undergoes an ERC, it might not bode well for her. By the time she sorts it out, she could be moving into less favorable conditions...

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE WILMA (AL242005) ON 20051019 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051019 0000 051019 1200 051020 0000 051020 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 16.6N 81.8W 17.3N 83.4W 17.8N 84.7W 18.4N 85.6W
BAMM 16.6N 81.8W 17.3N 83.3W 18.0N 84.6W 18.8N 85.4W
A98E 16.6N 81.8W 16.9N 83.2W 17.6N 84.5W 18.5N 85.8W
LBAR 16.6N 81.8W 17.5N 83.5W 18.9N 85.0W 20.1N 86.3W
SHIP 90KTS 105KTS 118KTS 124KTS
DSHP 90KTS 105KTS 118KTS 124KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051021 0000 051022 0000 051023 0000 051024 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 19.4N 86.1W 22.1N 84.3W 27.5N 78.0W 37.8N 65.1W
BAMM 20.0N 85.8W 22.8N 84.5W 27.4N 78.1W 36.6N 65.2W
A98E 19.5N 86.8W 19.9N 86.0W 20.8N 79.5W 22.0N 76.9W
LBAR 21.8N 86.9W 26.4N 84.7W 33.8N 73.2W 38.6N 53.7W
SHIP 129KTS 129KTS 116KTS 86KTS
DSHP 129KTS 129KTS 102KTS 74KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.6N LONCUR = 81.8W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 16.2N LONM12 = 80.3W DIRM12 = 311DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 15.7N LONM24 = 79.9W
WNDCUR = 90KT RMAXWD = 10NM WNDM12 = 65KT
CENPRS = 950MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 300NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 135NM RD34SE = 90NM RD34SW = 90NM RD34NW = 135NM



The 00:00z run of the BAM modelsWow ship goes up to 129kts.

[Ivanhater]

ummm, i noticed its continuing to go almost due west and missing the forecast points...is this another situation where it continues to keep going west like ivan and katrina?

I'm noticing that... it's still going to make a sharp turn though. That's why I'm not completely buying this "skirt the tip of Florida" yet.

i agree, im not buying the florida straits right now...maybe it will plow into central america if it keeps up

[truballer#1]

for those comparing rita and wimas cloud tops
rita


wilma

[Brent]

Is it me, or does it have a stronger system into Florida now?

This is so not good.

[floridahurricaneguy]

See that concerns me. Dont think CA will get it but it makes more likely for farther north landfall. Like more even closer to Tampa? I am not totally wrong here am I?

Matt

[tracyswfla]

Is it me, or does it have a stronger system into Florida now?

This is so not good.

Right, now Brent, give me directions to your house... We are coming there!

[MiamiensisWx]

The SHIP is now forecasting it to be around 120KT at landfall on the southwest coast of Florida.

[DESTRUCTION5]

The SHIP is now forecasting it to be around 120KT at landfall on the southwest coast of Florida.

Excuse me While I clean the puke off my keyboard..

[truballer#1]

rita

wilma

[tracyswfla]

The SHIP is now forecasting it to be around 120KT at landfall on the southwest coast of Florida.

Excuse me While I clean the puke off my keyboard..

uhhhh I beat you to it~

[n o o d l z]

See that concerns me. Dont think CA will get it but it makes more likely for farther north landfall. Like more even closer to Tampa? I am not totally wrong here am I?

Matt

Thats what I've been sticking with thus far...I don't buy the skirting the tip of Florida models. I think at the pace this storm is moving, and its continued westward movement, we'll see a landfall further north towards Tampa. I've been sticking with the GFDL for the most part so far.

[Damar91]

What does 120kts convert to in winds?

[Weatherboy1]

Just a few posts ago, I was saying not to worry as Wilma would likely be weakening as she neared the FL coast. Now SHIPS is at 129 knots (145-150 mph) just before landfall? And the GFDL actually seems to intensify her right before landfall, going from 110 knots to 121. Not sure why, but all I can say is "UGH."

[jkt21787]

What does 120kts convert to in winds?

~140 mph.

[WindRunner]

Noticed something - these models ran from 950mb, not 954. I guess they are anticipating a continued fall in pressure . . . duh!

[johngaltfla]

ummm, i noticed its continuing to go almost due west and missing the forecast points...is this another situation where it continues to keep going west like ivan and katrina?

I'm noticing that... it's still going to make a sharp turn though. That's why I'm not completely buying this "skirt the tip of Florida" yet.

I'm not buying it either Brent. Something is wrong. It would almost have to do a perfect U turn to "skirt" the tip.

This looks more and more like a Ft. Myers to Tampa event. And the further west it wobbles, that's not good for moi.

[Damar91]

Just hypothetically, if it did hit SW FLorida at that wind speed, how much would you deduct from that by the time it got into Broward County?

[StrongWind]

The SHIP is now forecasting it to be around 120KT at landfall on the southwest coast of Florida.

Excuse me While I clean the puke off my keyboard..

uhhhh I beat you to it~

You cleaned the puke off of his keyboard first? Sorry, couldn't resist

[Derek Ortt]

a more westerly track means amore southerly landfall, possibly a miss to the south
the reason is is that it will start the NE turn farther south that it otherwise would