Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

[wxman57]

It's really way too early to be confident in an exact landfall point. I think it's reasonable to say that anywhere from Tampa to south of the Florida Keys is a likely track. We really may not know where in that area landfall will be until Saturday morning. Small course changes here or there, an earlier or later NE turn, slowing/speeding up, etc., will all affect that exact landfall location. So it's really pointless to predict Key West or Tampa from 4 days out.

You folks in Florida, from a Tampa to Daytona Beach line and southward had better make your preparations for a possible major hurricane impact Saturday afternoon/evening. I'm thinking Fort Myers is more likely than Tampa, but if I were in Tampa, I'd get my supplies ready, too.

[johngaltfla]

It's really way too early to be confident in an exact landfall point. I think it's reasonable to say that anywhere from Tampa to south of the Florida Keys is a likely track. We really may not know where in that area landfall will be until Saturday morning. Small course changes here or there, an earlier or later NE turn, slowing/speeding up, etc., will all affect that exact landfall location. So it's really pointless to predict Key West or Tampa from 4 days out.

You folks in Florida, from a Tampa to Daytona Beach line and southward had better make your preparations for a possible major hurricane impact Saturday afternoon/evening. I'm thinking Fort Myers is more likely than Tampa, but if I were in Tampa, I'd get my supplies ready, too.

I'm in Sarasota; and if the turn occurs LATE on Thursday, I'm heading to my storage shed to pick up my plywood. This is a very discomforting location for a storm this time of year for those of us in SW Florida....

[Bellarose]

We really may not know where in that area landfall will be until Saturday morning.

Sorry if I got the quote thing wrong, but that is the scariest thought of all.

[johngaltfla]

We really may not know where in that area landfall will be until Saturday morning.

Sorry if I got the quote thing wrong, but that is the scariest thought of all.

I'll tell you one thing; I'm watching News Channel 8's VIPIR forecast tonight and until it's close to impact.

Right, wrong or indifferent, it did pick up the turn with Charley.

[Brent]

I'm in Sarasota; and if the turn occurs LATE on Thursday, I'm heading to my storage shed to pick up my plywood. This is a very discomforting location for a storm this time of year for those of us in SW Florida....

Actually... the turn will likely not be til Late Friday or even overnight into Saturday Morning. The NHC still has it going slowly NW east of the Northeastern Yucatan Thursday and Friday(in the Channel).

[chadtm80]

Last fram show a south wobble?

[Bellarose]

How was baynews9? They really are my favorite. Maybe we should take this to the HC thread?

[johngaltfla]

I'm in Sarasota; and if the turn occurs LATE on Thursday, I'm heading to my storage shed to pick up my plywood. This is a very discomforting location for a storm this time of year for those of us in SW Florida....

Actually... the turn will likely not be til Late Friday or even overnight into Saturday Morning. The NHC still has it going slowly NW east of the Northeastern Yucatan Thursday and Friday(in the Channel).

Brent, tell me I'm crazy but the later the turn, the more screwed the Tampa to Sarasota area is; right or wrong?

[Brent]

I'm in Sarasota; and if the turn occurs LATE on Thursday, I'm heading to my storage shed to pick up my plywood. This is a very discomforting location for a storm this time of year for those of us in SW Florida....

Actually... the turn will likely not be til Late Friday or even overnight into Saturday Morning. The NHC still has it going slowly NW east of the Northeastern Yucatan Thursday and Friday(in the Channel).

Brent, tell me I'm crazy but the later the turn, the more screwed the Tampa to Sarasota area is; right or wrong?

Yes... most likely.

You want it to turn sooner if your there.

[hicksta]

I'm in Sarasota; and if the turn occurs LATE on Thursday, I'm heading to my storage shed to pick up my plywood. This is a very discomforting location for a storm this time of year for those of us in SW Florida....

Actually... the turn will likely not be til Late Friday or even overnight into Saturday Morning. The NHC still has it going slowly NW east of the Northeastern Yucatan Thursday and Friday(in the Channel).

Brent, tell me I'm crazy but the later the turn, the more screwed the Tampa to Sarasota area is; right or wrong?

Correct

[cycloneye]

Last fram show a south wobble?

Yep chad I see it too.Many wobbles like that may be very significant in terms of the future track and see if Wilma will be a Mexico/Belize cane or it will go up to be a South Florida cane.

[Scorpion]

I think this has the opportunity to break the Atlantic MSLP record.

[Cookiely]

I have a couple of questions. First, on the expected track of Wilma. Is it going to go straight across or south to north on an angle bisecting the state? Also, do you think there is any chance this could become a cat 5? I didn't think this time of year we could get a hurricane of that intensity.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Yeah Mitch in Stan has so far shown my that some hurricanes do as they choose. Lets see if this can do a Mitch.

[Blown Away]

Tuesday Observations:
1. Pro's posted the more W Wilma goes that better chance going S of FL maybe below the Keys.
2. Wilma is moving more west than anticipated, barely gaining latitude since 11am.
3. Ukmet, GFS, and BAM's shifted S below the peninsula today.
4. The reliable GFDL has also made a significant S shift today.

A more southerly track seems reasonable to me, but alot of the reliable pro's are still going w/ a more northerly track. What am I missing or not seeing?

[Brent]

I think this has the opportunity to break the Atlantic MSLP record.

You are not serious.

[skysummit]

Last fram show a south wobble?

Yep chad I see it too.Many wobbles like that may be very significant in terms of the future track and see if Wilma will be a Mexico/Belize cane or it will go up to be a South Florida cane.

It looks like the flow in the eastern gulf is from north to south right now. Is that what Wilma is feeling in the short term?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Hurricane Mitch formed later then this...In this area. The caribbean could get a cat5 in December if shear was low.

[Brent]

I have a couple of questions. First, on the expected track of Wilma. Is it going to go straight across or south to north on an angle bisecting the state? Also, do you think there is any chance this could become a cat 5? I didn't think this time of year we could get a hurricane of that intensity.

It's defintely gonna go NE or even ENE across the state... not south to north.

and yes, Mitch was a Cat 5 on OCTOBER 27TH, so while it may be unlikely, it's not unheard of.

[Bellarose]

You want it to turn sooner if your there.

For us New Florida residents (and new to hurricanes) What contitutes "sooner"? For us to have a crappy weekend, as opposed to devastating, what kind of timeframe are we looking at? Or is that vague at this point?

Thanks!