Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

[stormie]

You want it to turn sooner if your there.

For us New Florida residents (and new to hurricanes) What contitutes "sooner"? For us to have a crappy weekend, as opposed to devastating, what kind of timeframe are we looking at? Or is that vague at this point? Thanks!

I've only lived in Tampa for 7 years, but after last year...well, I think (hope) I picked up a thing or two. I highly recommend listening to Denis Philips on abc 28 -- he seems to put a good perspective on things. Not to say that other forecasters and stations are less accurate, it's just that I find his perspective particularly accurate and helpful and the most in line with the more advanced/complex opionions and info I find at Storm2K.

From what I've heard, we should have a good (better) idea Friday afternoon...I SO want to say (think) that it looks like we won't fair to bad, but, WHEW!, better keep your eye on this one...

[Damar91]

A couple of things I noticed. On the last frame of the infared, it looks like it has taken a slight jog to the WNW. Also the cold core cloud tops( the grey area) has bombed big time.

[Windy]

Heh, go away for a while and what happens? Just looked again at the IR sat -- holy moly, is she ever ramping up. Those are some coooold tops.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

She is not bombing instead now she is exloding...Those cloud tops make her looks much stronger then Katrina or Rita. I would not be suprized if this out did Katrina or Rita. I will say recon will find pressures at 945 millibars or maybe less.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... IR4/20.jpg

The eye is starting to come out.

[Damar91]

Matt, you must be getting nervous, I think you meant exploding!

[JamesFromMaine2]

She is not bombing instead now she is exloding...Those cloud tops make her looks much stronger then Katrina or Rita. I would not be suprized if this out did Katrina or Rita. I will say recon will find pressures at 945 millibars or maybe less.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... IR4/20.jpg

The eye is starting to come out.

at 11pm the pressure will be atleast 950mb so I would say recon will find pressures atleast 10mb lower then that since recon still has atleast an hour before getting a VDM!

[n o o d l z]

ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILMA ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT TUE OCT 18 2005

...WILMA CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN...SHOULD BECOME A MAJOR
HURRICANE IN A FEW HOURS...

AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE
HURRICANE WATCH SOUTHWARD TO PUNTA GRUESA. A HURRICANE WATCH IS
NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CABO
CATOCHE TO PUNTA GRUESA.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF
MATANZAS WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE ISLE OF
YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF WILMA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.1 WEST OR ABOUT
185 MILES... 295 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT
405 MILES... 650 KM...SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.

WILMA IS MOVING GENERALLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH
...13 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...WITH WILMA BECOMING A MAJOR HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT AND
POSSIBLY BECOMING A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE LATER ON WEDNESDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 155 MILES...250 KM. NOAA BUOY 42057 RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 50 MPH... 81 KH/HR...WITH A GUST OF 58 MPH... 94 KM/HR.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 945 MB...27.91 INCHES.

WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15
INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS NEAR 25 INCHES IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN
ACROSS CUBA THROUGH FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5
TO 10 INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...SWAN ISLAND...AND JAMAICA THROUGH
THURSDAY. STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE FROM HONDURAS
NORTHWARD TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO THROUGH THURSDAY.

REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...16.8 N... 82.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...110 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 945 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM EDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN

[hicksta]

If you think its a beast right now.. Just wait till you wake up.. I remember the day before we evacuated. I woke up and was amazed and how organized she had gotten

[EFrancis]

I'm pretty eager for this 11 PM update. I think we'll see 110 MPH.

Please hurry and turn east. I'm a fan of hurricanes but we've had enough this year! Let there be Alpha, even Beta, as small systems that don't affect land, just to break the record and well, also because I think Beta is a cool name for a Tropical Storm. But after that, no mas.

[Cookiely]

Will Wilma become an annular cane? What are your opinions?

[cycloneye]

Will Wilma pull a surprise and move strait west into Belize as Iris did in 2001? To answer my own question I dont think so but you never know what mother nature has instored.

[stormandan28]

This is from JB his 8:30 update I just copied the main peace.

I like the track I have. Please remember that by the time this gets to the latitude of Hatteras, it is liable not to have the strongest winds at the center, but be a large powerful storm over a large area. That the rubber band is snapping this way I think speaks volumes.

Rarely is such potential on a weather map. The ideas here are based on the path we took to get here and the idea that given this pattern the model biases, etc, this does have as good a chance as not to go the distance.

In Florida, this will hit near where Charley hit, but not as a fist of fury concentrated and getting stronger, but as a spreading out and weakening storm over its peak. However a strong 2 or cat 3 with hurricane force winds extending out 100 miles in all directions will still be major, storm certainly the worst October storm to hit from the southwest since the downtick started back in 1965 of major October/November hits.

Its a heck of an ending to the landfall part of the season ( I think this is what is needed to snap the hurricane generator close to the coast) and one that may be talked about for many a year, not only for Florida but further north

[CronkPSU]

945 mb

110 mph...yikes

[Scorpion]

Will Wilma pull a surprise and move strait west into Belize as Iris did in 2001? To answer my own question I dont think so but you never know what mother nature has instore.

It won't. The upper air pattern is MUCH different than either Iris or Mitch.

[HURAKAN]

A few hours ago ...


NOW ...

[n o o d l z]

ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT TUE OCT 18 2005

WILMA HAS DEVELOPED THE DREADED PINHOLE EYE. REPORTS FROM THE AIR
FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER INVESTIGATING WILMA BETWEEN 19Z AND
23Z INDICATED A 7-8 N MI WIDE EYE...WITH THE CENTRAL PRESSURE
DROPPING FROM 970 MB TO 954 MB IN 3 HR 14 MIN. THE MAXIMUM
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS MEASURED BY THE AIRCRAFT AT 850 MB WERE 101 KT.
SINCE THAT TIME...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASED ORGANIZATION...
WITH A RING OF COLD TOPS OF -80C TO -87C SURROUNDING THE EYE.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 102 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 90
KT FROM AFWA. BASED ON THIS AND EXTRAPOLATION OF THE LAST AIRCRAFT
DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 95 KT. THIS MAY BE
CONSERVATIVE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS THE 12 HR MOTION OF 285/7...ALTHOUGH FOR THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS THE EYE HAS BEEN MOVING ALMOST DUE WEST AND
PERHAPS A LITTLE SLOWER. WILMA IS SOUTH OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN MEXICO EASTWARD TO SOUTHERN FLORIDA...AND
SOUTHEAST OF A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE THAT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO.
LARGE-SCALE MODELS AGREE THAT THE RIDGES SHOULD WEAKEN DURING THE
NEXT 36-48 HR AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHWESTERN
ARIZONA MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND THEN EASTWARD. THE RIDGES SHOULD
COLLAPSE COMPLETELY AS A DEEP LAYER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES AFTER 72 HR. THIS COMBINATION SHOULD CAUSE
WILMA TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD FOR 48 HR OR SO...THEN TURN
NORTHWARD...THEN RECURVE INTO THE WESTERLIES AFTER 72 HR. ALL
MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES ON THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THERE
IS SOME SPREAD ON THE EXACTLY WHERE WILMA WILL RECURVE BETWEEN THE
LEFT-MOST GFDN AND RIGHT-MOST UKMET. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS
ADJUSTED SOMEWHAT TO THE LEFT FOR THE FIRST 48 HR BASED ON THE
CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION...WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
TRACK SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY IN AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL
CONSENSUS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE MODELS DO NOT COMPLETELY
AGREE ON HOW THE EASTERN U. S. TROUGH WILL EVOLVE...AND THESE
DIFFERENCES COULD MAKE A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN WHAT PARTS OF
FLORIDA WILMA WILL ULTIMATELY AFFECT.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BECOME MORE COMPLICATED. THE CURRENT
RAPID INTENSIFICATION AND FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BRING WILMA
TO CATEGORY FOUR STATUS IN THE NEXT 24 HR...AND IT WOULD NOT BE A
SURPRISE TO SEE IT REACH CATEGORY FIVE BEFORE IT BOTTOMS OUT.
HOWEVER...SSM/I DATA SHOWS THAT THE CONVECTION WITH THE EYEWALL
COVERS A VERY SMALL AREA...WITH A DISTINCT DRY MOAT ALREADY PRESENT
OUTSIDE THE EYEWALL. OUTSIDE OF THAT IS A BROKEN CONVECTIVE BAND
THAT AIRCRAFT DATA SHOWS IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN OUTER WIND MAXIMUM.
THUS...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT WILMA WILL GO THROUGH A CONCENTRIC
EYEWALL CYCLE DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HR...AND SINCE THE INNER EYE IS
SO SMALL THERE COULD BE NOTABLE WEAKENING UNTIL THE OUTER EYEWALL
CONTRACTS. SINCE THESE CYCLES ARE HARD TO TIME...THE INTENSITY
FORECAST WILL HOLD AT 125 KT FROM 24-48 HR. WHEN WILMA MOVES INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO...IT SHOULD ENCOUNTER SLIGHTLY COOLER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND GRADUALLY INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR. THIS
SHOULD CAUSE A SLOW WEAKENING...ALTHOUGH IT IS PROBABLE THAT WILMA
WILL STILL BE A MAJOR HURRICANE WHEN IT REACHES THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA.

THE NOAA G4 JET FLEW ITS FIRST SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION ON
WILMA THIS EVENING...AND IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE THE IMPACT
ON THE 00Z MODEL RUNS.

FORECASTER BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/0300Z 16.8N 82.1W 95 KT
12HR VT 19/1200Z 17.2N 83.1W 110 KT
24HR VT 20/0000Z 18.1N 84.2W 125 KT
36HR VT 20/1200Z 19.2N 85.0W 125 KT
48HR VT 21/0000Z 20.4N 85.5W 125 KT
72HR VT 22/0000Z 23.0N 85.5W 115 KT
96HR VT 23/0000Z 26.0N 81.0W 90 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 24/0000Z 33.0N 72.0W 75 KT

[SkeetoBite]

[SkeetoBite]

1 click, 2 post bonus

[Bgator]

I beleive Wilma is about to make her Nortward turn, she has slowed down and this usually indicate sthat!

[MiamiensisWx]

The NHC is now forecasting Wilma to be at least 115KT at landfall on the southwest coast of Florida...

000
WTNT24 KNHC 190232
TCMAT4
HURRICANE WILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL242005
0300Z WED OCT 19 2005

AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE
HURRICANE WATCH SOUTHWARD TO PUNTA GRUESA. A HURRICANE WATCH IS
NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CABO
CATOCHE TO PUNTA GRUESA.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF
MATANZAS WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE ISLE OF
YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF WILMA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 82.1W AT 19/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 945 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT.......135NE 90SE 90SW 135NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 150SE 150SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 82.1W AT 19/0300Z
AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 81.8W

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 17.2N 83.1W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...135NE 90SE 90SW 135NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 18.1N 84.2W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 90SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 19.2N 85.0W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 90SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 20.4N 85.5W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 23.0N 85.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 26.0N 81.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 33.0N 72.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N 82.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z

FORECASTER BEVEN


$$