Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

#701 Postby **Windy** » Tue Oct 18, 2005 9:45 pm

LOL at the NHC discussion: "Wilma has developed the dreaded pinhole eye." Dun-dun-DUNNNNNNN!

wxmann_91 · #702 Postby **wxmann_91** » Tue Oct 18, 2005 9:48 pm

Windy wrote:LOL at the NHC discussion: "Wilma has developed the dreaded pinhole eye." Dun-dun-DUNNNNNNN!

Don't forget that they also mentioned about the two words that start with Ca and Fi.

:eek:

#703 Postby **Cookiely** » Tue Oct 18, 2005 9:49 pm

From the 11PM
23Z INDICATED A 7-8 N MI WIDE EYE...WITH THE CENTRAL PRESSURE
DROPPING FROM 970 MB TO 954 MB IN 3 HR 14 MIN.
Was this a record or are they just explaining the awesome intensification going on?

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #704 Postby **senorpepr** » Tue Oct 18, 2005 9:50 pm

Cookiely wrote:From the 11PM
23Z INDICATED A 7-8 N MI WIDE EYE...WITH THE CENTRAL PRESSURE
DROPPING FROM 970 MB TO 954 MB IN 3 HR 14 MIN.
Was this a record or are they just explaining the awesome intensification going on?

Not a record, but just intense deepening.

markymark8 · #705 Postby **markymark8** » Tue Oct 18, 2005 9:50 pm

Windy wrote:LOL at the NHC discussion: "Wilma has developed the dreaded pinhole eye." Dun-dun-DUNNNNNNN!

and winds are up to 110mph and says wilma will be a 4 or maybe peak at a 5 now. The good news is once Wilma gets further north shear and dry air will weaken her but she still is showing by the NHC she will make landfall as a major with 115 knot winds which is 132 mph. This is still very bad news.

#706 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Oct 18, 2005 9:52 pm

NCHurricane · #707 Postby **NCHurricane** » Tue Oct 18, 2005 9:52 pm

Wow, I go away for 4 hours and she's gotten to be big girl! :eek:

Chuck
http://www.nchurricane.com

floridahurricaneguy · #708 Postby **floridahurricaneguy** » Tue Oct 18, 2005 9:52 pm

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE MODELS DO NOT COMPLETELY
AGREE ON HOW THE EASTERN U. S. TROUGH WILL EVOLVE...AND THESE
DIFFERENCES COULD MAKE A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN WHAT PARTS OF
FLORIDA WILMA WILL ULTIMATELY AFFECT.

Well thats comforting. They need to start evacuating. Even tampa. Just to be cautious. We cant wait until we know for sure. There is to much question and where it will hit. I dont think we cant wait until Friday to find out for sure adn find out "oh crap" we have less then 24 hours to evacuate all of tampa or naples or wherever!

#709 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Oct 18, 2005 9:54 pm

832
WTNT44 KNHC 190236
TCDAT4
HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT TUE OCT 18 2005

WILMA HAS DEVELOPED THE DREADED PINHOLE EYE. REPORTS FROM THE AIR
FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER INVESTIGATING WILMA BETWEEN 19Z AND
23Z INDICATED A 7-8 N MI WIDE EYE...WITH THE CENTRAL PRESSURE
DROPPING FROM 970 MB TO 954 MB IN 3 HR 14 MIN. THE MAXIMUM
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS MEASURED BY THE AIRCRAFT AT 850 MB WERE 101 KT.
SINCE THAT TIME...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASED ORGANIZATION...
WITH A RING OF COLD TOPS OF -80C TO -87C SURROUNDING THE EYE.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 102 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 90
KT FROM AFWA. BASED ON THIS AND EXTRAPOLATION OF THE LAST AIRCRAFT
DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 95 KT. THIS MAY BE
CONSERVATIVE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS THE 12 HR MOTION OF 285/7...ALTHOUGH FOR THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS THE EYE HAS BEEN MOVING ALMOST DUE WEST AND
PERHAPS A LITTLE SLOWER. WILMA IS SOUTH OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN MEXICO EASTWARD TO SOUTHERN FLORIDA...AND
SOUTHEAST OF A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE THAT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO.
LARGE-SCALE MODELS AGREE THAT THE RIDGES SHOULD WEAKEN DURING THE
NEXT 36-48 HR AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHWESTERN
ARIZONA MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND THEN EASTWARD. THE RIDGES SHOULD
COLLAPSE COMPLETELY AS A DEEP LAYER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES AFTER 72 HR. THIS COMBINATION SHOULD CAUSE
WILMA TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD FOR 48 HR OR SO...THEN TURN
NORTHWARD...THEN RECURVE INTO THE WESTERLIES AFTER 72 HR. ALL
MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES ON THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THERE
IS SOME SPREAD ON THE EXACTLY WHERE WILMA WILL RECURVE BETWEEN THE
LEFT-MOST GFDN AND RIGHT-MOST UKMET. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS
ADJUSTED SOMEWHAT TO THE LEFT FOR THE FIRST 48 HR BASED ON THE
CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION...WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
TRACK SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY IN AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL
CONSENSUS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE MODELS DO NOT COMPLETELY
AGREE ON HOW THE EASTERN U. S. TROUGH WILL EVOLVE...AND THESE
DIFFERENCES COULD MAKE A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN WHAT PARTS OF
FLORIDA WILMA WILL ULTIMATELY AFFECT.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BECOME MORE COMPLICATED. THE CURRENT
RAPID INTENSIFICATION AND FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BRING WILMA
TO CATEGORY FOUR STATUS IN THE NEXT 24 HR...AND IT WOULD NOT BE A
SURPRISE TO SEE IT REACH CATEGORY FIVE BEFORE IT BOTTOMS OUT.
HOWEVER...SSM/I DATA SHOWS THAT THE CONVECTION WITH THE EYEWALL
COVERS A VERY SMALL AREA...WITH A DISTINCT DRY MOAT ALREADY PRESENT
OUTSIDE THE EYEWALL. OUTSIDE OF THAT IS A BROKEN CONVECTIVE BAND
THAT AIRCRAFT DATA SHOWS IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN OUTER WIND MAXIMUM.
THUS...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT WILMA WILL GO THROUGH A CONCENTRIC
EYEWALL CYCLE DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HR...AND SINCE THE INNER EYE IS
SO SMALL THERE COULD BE NOTABLE WEAKENING UNTIL THE OUTER EYEWALL
CONTRACTS. SINCE THESE CYCLES ARE HARD TO TIME...THE INTENSITY
FORECAST WILL HOLD AT 125 KT FROM 24-48 HR. WHEN WILMA MOVES INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO...IT SHOULD ENCOUNTER SLIGHTLY COOLER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND GRADUALLY INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR. THIS
SHOULD CAUSE A SLOW WEAKENING...ALTHOUGH IT IS PROBABLE THAT WILMA
WILL STILL BE A MAJOR HURRICANE WHEN IT REACHES THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA.

THE NOAA G4 JET FLEW ITS FIRST SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION ON
WILMA THIS EVENING...AND IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE THE IMPACT
ON THE 00Z MODEL RUNS.

FORECASTER BEVEN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/0300Z 16.8N 82.1W 95 KT
12HR VT 19/1200Z 17.2N 83.1W 110 KT
24HR VT 20/0000Z 18.1N 84.2W 125 KT
36HR VT 20/1200Z 19.2N 85.0W 125 KT
48HR VT 21/0000Z 20.4N 85.5W 125 KT
72HR VT 22/0000Z 23.0N 85.5W 115 KT
96HR VT 23/0000Z 26.0N 81.0W 90 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 24/0000Z 33.0N 72.0W 75 KT

gtalum · #710 Postby **gtalum** » Tue Oct 18, 2005 9:54 pm

I bet they start issuing evac plans tomorrow. Right now it is still too early.

tampastorm · #711 Postby **tampastorm** » Tue Oct 18, 2005 9:54 pm

Am I wrong in saying this "wobble" to the west is causing a SLIGHT north adjustment by the NHC? Thats what I get put of the projected points, though I thought it would be the exact opposite. Confused

floridahurricaneguy · #712 Postby **floridahurricaneguy** » Tue Oct 18, 2005 9:57 pm

gtalum wrote:I bet they start issuing evac plans tomorrow. Right now it is still too early.

I wonder what Tampa will do. Since there still is a good risk and come here. NHC says all depends on trough. I am telling you this just is to scary and weird. I just hope Tampa can get people out if comes here!
Matt

#713 Postby **TreasureIslandFLGal** » Tue Oct 18, 2005 9:58 pm

I find it quite interesting that the NHC mentioned that the new data will be going into the models and they are curious to see what parts of florida will then be impacted. It sounds like they are expecting model shifting with the new data. I wonder which way.

gtalum · #714 Postby **gtalum** » Tue Oct 18, 2005 9:59 pm

floridahurricaneguy wrote:
gtalum wrote:I bet they start issuing evac plans tomorrow. Right now it is still too early.

I wonder what Tampa will do. Since there still is a good risk and come here. NHC says all depends on trough. I am telling you this just is to scary and weird. I just hope Tampa can get people out if comes here!

I'm kinda wondering the same thing. I really don't foresee this thing hitting far enough north to necessitate evacuating Tampa. But then again, it does take a while to evacuate all the peopel in low-lying areas there. WHo knows. This would be a tough call. Premature evacuations are deadly in future storms. They breed even more complacency.

tampastorm · #715 Postby **tampastorm** » Tue Oct 18, 2005 9:59 pm

totally agree. At work today I was trying to explain if this thing comes towards us get out! For a person the response, " Tampa never gets hit, they always turn away at the last second". Very scary response!

#716 Postby **gatorcane** » Tue Oct 18, 2005 10:00 pm

Katrina dropped 31MB in 9 hours and went from 110mph to 160 mph winds.

Wilma has dropped 15MB in about 1/2 this time. If you extrapolate this out, we have a major hurricane with 150 mph+ winds by morning.

:eek:

#717 Postby **THead** » Tue Oct 18, 2005 10:02 pm

tampastorm wrote:Am I wrong in saying this "wobble" to the west is causing a SLIGHT north adjustment by the NHC? Thats what I get put of the projected points, though I thought it would be the exact opposite. Confused

No, if anything the "line" is a tad further south, it was scraping the southern edge of lake okeechobee on the earlier path at 5pm. However, don't focus on the line, watch the cone........
:wink:

rainydaze · #718 Postby **rainydaze** » Tue Oct 18, 2005 10:03 pm

But the real question is.....where do people evacuate to?? Forget sending city buses in to evacuate people out.....we need airplanes to fly people to Iowa or something...LOL

#719 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Oct 18, 2005 10:05 pm

Dont focus on the line only.If you are in the cone you must prepare.

gtalum · #720 Postby **gtalum** » Tue Oct 18, 2005 10:06 pm

They should only evacuate to nearby high ground.

Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

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