Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

[floridahurricaneguy]

Its deffinitely possible it will come this far north. I just dont think will know for sure until last minute. When will 00z models.

Matt

[El Nino]

My God, what a difference in just hours ! Now a almost cat3 hurricane, and possibility of a cat5 ! With forecasting now improved to 125 kts, I think it will be difficult to not reach it. What a season, what a season !

I'm asking to myself with which conditions I'll wake me up by tomorrow. Maybe allready a cat4 LOL.

[gatorcane]

Katrina dropped 31MB in 9 hours and went from 110mph to 160 mph winds.

Wilma has dropped 15MB in about 1/2 this time. If you extrapolate this out, we have a major hurricane with 150 mph+ winds by morning

[johngaltfla]

This is from JB his 8:30 update I just copied the main peace.

I like the track I have. Please remember that by the time this gets to the latitude of Hatteras, it is liable not to have the strongest winds at the center, but be a large powerful storm over a large area. That the rubber band is snapping this way I think speaks volumes.

Rarely is such potential on a weather map. The ideas here are based on the path we took to get here and the idea that given this pattern the model biases, etc, this does have as good a chance as not to go the distance.

In Florida, this will hit near where Charley hit, but not as a fist of fury concentrated and getting stronger, but as a spreading out and weakening storm over its peak. However a strong 2 or cat 3 with hurricane force winds extending out 100 miles in all directions will still be major, storm certainly the worst October storm to hit from the southwest since the downtick started back in 1965 of major October/November hits.

Its a heck of an ending to the landfall part of the season ( I think this is what is needed to snap the hurricane generator close to the coast) and one that may be talked about for many a year, not only for Florida but further north

Sigh. I'm afraid Joe could be right. I still think the storm will cross between Punta Gorda and South Manatee County. If it crosses just east of Cancun as a Cat 5, I feel we're toast.

[skysummit]

I think I'm having deja-vu.

[Brent]

Am I wrong in saying this "wobble" to the west is causing a SLIGHT north adjustment by the NHC? Thats what I get put of the projected points, though I thought it would be the exact opposite. Confused

No, if anything the "line" is a tad further south, it was scraping the southern edge of lake okeechobee on the earlier path at 5pm. However, don't focus on the line, watch the cone........

It is.

Landfall at Chokoloskee, moves offshore near North Palm Beach/Juno Beach.

[THead]

They should only evacuate to nearby high ground.

Could probably evac to sturdy structures on the inland east coast....I understand because it will be a fast mover thru Fla it will maintain alot of its punch, but that also has its benefits.......we won't be under the sustained winds as long. I think it will be relatively safe here on the east coast.

[DESTRUCTION5]

They should only evacuate to nearby high ground.

Could probably evac to sturdy structures on the inland east coast....I understand because it will be a fast mover thru Fla it will maintain alot of its punch, but that also has its benefits.......we won't be under the sustained winds as long. I think it will be relatively safe here on the east coast.

Charley was moving 23 MPH...I think he left quire a mess as far as im concerened...

[THead]

Am I wrong in saying this "wobble" to the west is causing a SLIGHT north adjustment by the NHC? Thats what I get put of the projected points, though I thought it would be the exact opposite. Confused

No, if anything the "line" is a tad further south, it was scraping the southern edge of lake okeechobee on the earlier path at 5pm. However, don't focus on the line, watch the cone........

It is.

Landfall at Chokoloskee, moves offshore near North Palm Beach/Juno Beach.

Ok my bad, I guess they changed the angle a little then thru the state..more west to east.

[THead]

They should only evacuate to nearby high ground.

Could probably evac to sturdy structures on the inland east coast....I understand because it will be a fast mover thru Fla it will maintain alot of its punch, but that also has its benefits.......we won't be under the sustained winds as long. I think it will be relatively safe here on the east coast.

Charley was moving 23 MPH...I think he left quire a mess as far as im concerened...

On the east coast?

[skysummit]

Since she has such a small eye already, how long do you think we should see its first ERC?

[wxmann_91]

Since she has such a small eye already, how long do you think we should see its first ERC?

According to NHC, there are signs that it is already beginning.

HOWEVER...SSM/I DATA SHOWS THAT THE CONVECTION WITH THE EYEWALL
COVERS A VERY SMALL AREA...WITH A DISTINCT DRY MOAT ALREADY PRESENT
OUTSIDE THE EYEWALL. OUTSIDE OF THAT IS A BROKEN CONVECTIVE BAND
THAT AIRCRAFT DATA SHOWS IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN OUTER WIND MAXIMUM.
THUS...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT WILMA WILL GO THROUGH A CONCENTRIC
EYEWALL CYCLE DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HR...AND SINCE THE INNER EYE IS
SO SMALL THERE COULD BE NOTABLE WEAKENING UNTIL THE OUTER EYEWALL
CONTRACTS.

[Blown Away]

Our local met just said most of the model guidance that had the system north of the Palm Beach county area has shifted south with a track over the Glades and near Miami. He said we need to continue to watch to see if the S trend continues.

[Typhoon_Willie]

Well I live about 12 miles southwest of Juno Beach, Fla so it should be a wild ride. Imagine who would of thought that at the beginning of this season that So Fla would get hit by a storm named Wilma and that it could be a Cat 3 at the time of landfall!?!

[Brent]

Am I wrong in saying this "wobble" to the west is causing a SLIGHT north adjustment by the NHC? Thats what I get put of the projected points, though I thought it would be the exact opposite. Confused

No, if anything the "line" is a tad further south, it was scraping the southern edge of lake okeechobee on the earlier path at 5pm. However, don't focus on the line, watch the cone........

It is.

Landfall at Chokoloskee, moves offshore near North Palm Beach/Juno Beach.

Ok my bad, I guess they changed the angle a little then thru the state..more west to east.

There's a left turn once it's over the middle of South FL.

[skysummit]

Since she has such a small eye already, how long do you think we should see its first ERC?

According to NHC, there are signs that it is already beginning.

HOWEVER...SSM/I DATA SHOWS THAT THE CONVECTION WITH THE EYEWALL
COVERS A VERY SMALL AREA...WITH A DISTINCT DRY MOAT ALREADY PRESENT
OUTSIDE THE EYEWALL. OUTSIDE OF THAT IS A BROKEN CONVECTIVE BAND
THAT AIRCRAFT DATA SHOWS IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN OUTER WIND MAXIMUM.
THUS...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT WILMA WILL GO THROUGH A CONCENTRIC
EYEWALL CYCLE DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HR...AND SINCE THE INNER EYE IS
SO SMALL THERE COULD BE NOTABLE WEAKENING UNTIL THE OUTER EYEWALL
CONTRACTS.

Thanks!

[floridahurricaneguy]

Who still think more north shift? Anyone still?
just wondering

[n o o d l z]

Who still think more north shift? Anyone still?
just wondering

My opinion doesn't mean much but I've been sticking with the Tampa-area landfall thus far...and now with this info, it seems even more probable.

[mike815]

i do but it still should be south of tampa i think.

[jkt21787]

I doubt we see much north shift, much less as far north as Tampa.