Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Post Reply
Message
Author
Matthew Williams
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 20
Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2005 8:31 pm
Contact:
Contact Matthew Williams

#781 Postby Matthew Williams » Tue Oct 18, 2005 11:11 pm

During Katrina didn't the new air data help models swing from Florida Panhandle to SW LA/ MS?
0 likes   
Top
jkt21787
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2061
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 5:27 pm
Location: Memphis, TN

#782 Postby jkt21787 » Tue Oct 18, 2005 11:12 pm

Bgator wrote:
MortisFL wrote:The 00z GFS is slower this run...just emerging from the Yucatan passage into the GOM in 102 hrs.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _102.shtml


It looks like the GFS is turning it SHARP! but that slowness doesnt ssem plausible...

Again, thats an old run.
0 likes   
Top
Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 37991
Age: 36
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:
Contact Brent

#783 Postby Brent » Tue Oct 18, 2005 11:12 pm

TONIGHT's 0z GFS at 90 hours... just north of Western Cuba.

Image
0 likes   
#neversummer
Top
User avatar
MortisFL
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 391
Age: 41
Joined: Mon Jul 21, 2003 9:01 am
Location: Sarasota, FL
Contact:
Contact MortisFL

#784 Postby MortisFL » Tue Oct 18, 2005 11:13 pm

Sorry about that.
0 likes   
Top
ericinmia
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1573
Joined: Fri Sep 12, 2003 11:15 pm
Location: Miami Lakes, FL

#785 Postby ericinmia » Tue Oct 18, 2005 11:13 pm

hmm the model consensus is moving southerly at 00z...

Image
0 likes   
Top
jkt21787
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2061
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 5:27 pm
Location: Memphis, TN

#786 Postby jkt21787 » Tue Oct 18, 2005 11:13 pm

0z GFS TONIGHT is virtually the same as previous, sorry Tampa posters :wink:
0 likes   
Top
Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 37991
Age: 36
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:
Contact Brent

#787 Postby Brent » Tue Oct 18, 2005 11:14 pm

jkt21787 wrote:0z GFS TONIGHT is virtually the same as previous, sorry Tampa posters :wink:


:roflmao:
0 likes   
#neversummer
Top
jkt21787
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2061
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 5:27 pm
Location: Memphis, TN

#788 Postby jkt21787 » Tue Oct 18, 2005 11:14 pm

ericinmia wrote:hmm the model consensus is moving southerly at 00z...

Image

NO!!! There was supposed to be a North shift!!! :lol:
0 likes   
Top
Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 37991
Age: 36
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:
Contact Brent

#789 Postby Brent » Tue Oct 18, 2005 11:14 pm

Right over Key West Sunday Morning at 2am(slower)

Image
0 likes   
#neversummer
Top
User avatar
Bgator
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 649
Joined: Mon Sep 05, 2005 12:29 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

#790 Postby Bgator » Tue Oct 18, 2005 11:15 pm

Look at Satellite imagery(which is not decieving when theres an eye!) There has been a very noticable jog to the north, i expect it to move to the NW, and current forecast path seems probable!Anyone else see this?!
0 likes   
Top
Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 37991
Age: 36
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:
Contact Brent

#791 Postby Brent » Tue Oct 18, 2005 11:17 pm

WOW... already moving back over water Sunday at 8am... near WPB?(hard to tell)

Image
0 likes   
#neversummer
Top
n o o d l z
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 96
Joined: Tue Oct 18, 2005 6:47 pm
Location: Gainesville, FL

#792 Postby n o o d l z » Tue Oct 18, 2005 11:17 pm

Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
CronkPSU
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2014
Joined: Sun Aug 07, 2005 10:44 pm
Location: Avalon Park, FL

#793 Postby CronkPSU » Tue Oct 18, 2005 11:18 pm

BIG time wobble north the last few frames....but who knows what that means for us 96 hours from now
0 likes   
Top
THead
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 790
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 5:09 pm
Location: Lauderhill, Fla./Jefferson, Ga.

#794 Postby THead » Tue Oct 18, 2005 11:22 pm

CronkPSU wrote:BIG time wobble north the last few frames....but who knows what that means for us 96 hours from now


Definitely north wobble....maybe stair-stepping......we'll see.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Bgator
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 649
Joined: Mon Sep 05, 2005 12:29 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

#795 Postby Bgator » Tue Oct 18, 2005 11:38 pm

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/mywxmap/chart.do?loop=true&requestId=1129564421956.869.15

NOGAPS takes it near FT. Meyers, maybe a bit north, I want to see the 6z and 12z before i jump on this considering the GFS takes it thru keyes than up to Ft lauderdale! Gfs has been consistent..NOGAPS has been a bit jumpy!
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
DESTRUCTION5
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4423
Age: 43
Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 11:25 am
Location: Stuart, FL

#796 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Tue Oct 18, 2005 11:42 pm

Bgator wrote:https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/mywxmap/chart.do?loop=true&requestId=1129564421956.869.15

NOGAPS takes it near FT. Meyers, maybe a bit north, I want to see the 6z and 12z before i jump on this considering the GFS takes it thru keyes than up to Ft lauderdale! Gfs has been consistent..NOGAPS has been a bit jumpy!


GFS looks Ft Meyers ish to me too.. Not Lauderdale?

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/mywxmap/char ... 956.869.15
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
boca
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6365
Age: 60
Joined: Mon Dec 15, 2003 8:49 am
Location: Boca Raton,FL

#797 Postby boca » Tue Oct 18, 2005 11:46 pm

To get to that model its asking me for login and password.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Bgator
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 649
Joined: Mon Sep 05, 2005 12:29 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

#798 Postby Bgator » Tue Oct 18, 2005 11:46 pm

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:
Bgator wrote:https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/mywxmap/chart.do?loop=true&requestId=1129564421956.869.15

NOGAPS takes it near FT. Meyers, maybe a bit north, I want to see the 6z and 12z before i jump on this considering the GFS takes it thru keyes than up to Ft lauderdale! Gfs has been consistent..NOGAPS has been a bit jumpy!


GFS looks Ft Meyers ish to me too.. Not Lauderdale?

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/mywxmap/char ... 956.869.15


The link u put on there is the NOGAPS! Read it at top!
0 likes   
Top
mtm4319
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1537
Joined: Sun Sep 12, 2004 2:47 am
Location: Mobile, AL

#799 Postby mtm4319 » Tue Oct 18, 2005 11:49 pm

Uh.......

I smell a special NHC statement soon.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
DESTRUCTION5
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4423
Age: 43
Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 11:25 am
Location: Stuart, FL

#800 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Tue Oct 18, 2005 11:53 pm

Bgator wrote:
DESTRUCTION5 wrote:
Bgator wrote:https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/mywxmap/chart.do?loop=true&requestId=1129564421956.869.15

NOGAPS takes it near FT. Meyers, maybe a bit north, I want to see the 6z and 12z before i jump on this considering the GFS takes it thru keyes than up to Ft lauderdale! Gfs has been consistent..NOGAPS has been a bit jumpy!


GFS looks Ft Meyers ish to me too.. Not Lauderdale?

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/mywxmap/char ... 956.869.15


The link u put on there is the NOGAPS! Read it at top!



Sorry..
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “2005”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 50 guests