Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

[Stratosphere747]

I have an eye question. Right now it's a pinhole eye and is about to undergo a ERC according to the NHC. Will the eye stay small, relatively speaking, or will it expand before landfall? Meaning, if it's 5 miles across now, could it, say, get up to a 60 mile across eye at some point, or would it stay fairly compact over time because of the characteristics the storm has now?

Amateur opinion of course....

I don't see how it would ever get close to a eye wall that size.

Wilma has decided her structure and any eye wall changes will not be that large. With any EWC we will see some loss of strength as well.

This is not a Katrina or Rita...

Not sure if that is a good thing though...

Scott

[jax]

i am a loss of words one word UNBELIVEABLE and its so BIG!

it is large.... but hurricane force winds only extend out 15 mikes from the center...

[krysof]

901mbs this has to be a joke, tell me their kidding

[Brent]

I think if it did get a large eye, it would be MUCH MUCH weaker than it is now...

[Windy]

i am a loss of words one word UNBELIVEABLE and its so BIG!

it is large.... but hurricane force winds only extend out 15 mikes from the center...

Mike's a pretty big guy, though.

[NCHurricane]

i am a loss of words one word UNBELIVEABLE and its so BIG!

it is large.... but hurricane force winds only extend out 15 mikes from the center...

Mike's a pretty big guy, though.

Chuck
http://www.nchurricane.com

[inotherwords]

I think if it did get a large eye, it would be MUCH MUCH weaker than it is now...

So it seems that this will be more a Charley type storm with a small, compact eye, but larger overall than Charley was.

Again, with another dumb question...is there any difference in how fast storms like this with small eyes last at high intensity vs. larger storms with bigger eyes? In other words, can a storm like this maintain that kind of intensity for the long run? I guess I'm looking for information on whether this could be a more reasonable size by landfall, particularly if landfall is a little later than anticipated, which seems to be the case.

[Brent]

I think if it did get a large eye, it would be MUCH MUCH weaker than it is now...

So it seems that this will be more a Charley type storm with a small, compact eye, but larger overall than Charley was.

Again, with another dumb question...is there any difference in how fast storms like this with small eyes last at high intensity vs. larger storms with bigger eyes? In other words, can a storm like this maintain that kind of intensity for the long run? I guess I'm looking for information on whether this could be a more reasonable size by landfall, particularly if landfall is a little later than anticipated, which seems to be the case.

The consensus has always been a small system is more likely to rapidly intensify or rapidly weaken... whereas a larger system is more likely to do it gradually.

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM EDT WED OCT 19 2005

...WILMA BECOMES AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM CABO CATOCHE TO PUNTA GRUESA.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF
MATANZAS WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE ISLE OF
YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF WILMA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 2 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.2 WEST OR ABOUT 170 MILES...
270 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 400 MILES...640
KM...SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.

WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WILMA IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. THE HURRICANE COULD BECOME A CATEGORY
FIVE HURRICANE TODAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 155 MILES...250 KM. NOAA BUOY 42057 RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST
TO NEAR 60 MPH...96 KM/HR.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS IS 901 MB...26.61 INCHES.

WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15
INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS NEAR 25 INCHES IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN
ACROSS CUBA THROUGH FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5
TO 10 INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...SWAN ISLAND...AND JAMAICA THROUGH
THURSDAY. STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE FROM HONDURAS
NORTHWARD TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO THROUGH THURSDAY.

REPEATING THE 2 AM EDT POSITION...17.0 N... 82.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...901 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 AM EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

[mtm4319]

http://tinypic.com/erfqsp.jpg

That... is a pinhole eye.

[mtm4319]

Wilma has gone due north, then due west over the past few hours. These intensification wobbles appear to be more pronounced the more rapidly the storm is strengthening.

[gotoman38]

Now NW again.... she seems to be following the short term directional fcst....

901mb????? Glad I'm not diving on CZM this week!

[NCHurricane]

http://tinypic.com/erfqsp.jpg

That... is a pinhole eye.

Simply amazing.

Chuck
http://www.nchurricane.com

[gotoman38]

NO JOKE KRYS

901mbs this has to be a joke, tell me their kidding

[krysof]

NO JOKE KRYS

901mbs this has to be a joke, tell me their kidding

of course, I should have known this season wasn't over without a hurricane threatening to be stronger than Rita and Katrina-how silly of me

[Stratosphere747]

Don't be surprised if this is the lowest reading recon finds. It's possible that recon missed the actual lowest readings of Katrina and Rita.

They may have just been in Wilma at the "right" time. Please no dirty jokes..

[f5]

Katrina beats Camille rita beats katrina now wilma is about to beat Rita what in the world is going on ?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Its looking better then ever. In you have to remember that the wind is slow to catch up in this. So 160 or 165 mph is not out of the quastion.

[Aqua Teen Hunger Force]

No discussion?

[krysof]

Winter better get here now! I shudder to think what 2006 will be like.