Hurricane Wilma Recon Discussion Thread

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Post Reply
Message
Author
Matt-hurricanewatcher

#421 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Wed Oct 19, 2005 2:34 am

It tighten up 9 millibars between the two Vortexs last time. I expect at the same rate would put this one 883 millibars???

I will say around 887 millibars.
0 likes   
Top
SamSagnella
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 630
Age: 39
Joined: Fri Aug 26, 2005 12:02 pm
Location: Westport, CT
Contact:
Contact SamSagnella

#422 Postby SamSagnella » Wed Oct 19, 2005 2:36 am

LOL. It's to the point that I'm bracing myself for 860 so that I'm not shocked with the 880s that I'm going to see. Amazing what a season like 2005 can do to one's expectations.
0 likes   
Top
Stratosphere747
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3772
Joined: Thu Sep 11, 2003 8:34 pm
Location: Surfside Beach/Freeport Tx
Contact:
Contact Stratosphere747

#423 Postby Stratosphere747 » Wed Oct 19, 2005 2:41 am

As loud as it actually is onboard....

I bet you could hear a pin drop on the next eye wall penetration.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
senorpepr
Military Met/Moderator
Military Met/Moderator
Posts: 12542
Age: 43
Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
Location: Mackenbach, Germany
Contact:
Contact senorpepr

#424 Postby senorpepr » Wed Oct 19, 2005 2:43 am

Stratosphere747 wrote:As loud as it actually is onboard....

I bet you could hear a pin drop on the next eye wall penetration.

probably not. the eye is too small. well... maybe for those few seconds.. :wink:
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
artist
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9792
Joined: Mon Jun 06, 2005 3:26 pm
Location: West Palm

#425 Postby artist » Wed Oct 19, 2005 2:43 am

Strat - you are probably right! lol I would love to see their faces each time they find the pressure so much lower so close together and those winds!
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Windy
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1628
Joined: Mon Sep 13, 2004 10:13 pm

#426 Postby Windy » Wed Oct 19, 2005 2:44 am

senorpepr wrote:
Windy wrote:
senorpepr wrote:
artist wrote:Senorpepr - - my father-in-law is flying into Ft. Lauderdale Sat. morning - flight due in by 11:15. DO you think he will have a problem getting ehre?

I know - he is nuts for still wanting to come here right now. :eek:

TIA


one more ? please - what do you think is going on with the eye????

For your first question... too early to tell, IMO.
For your second... it's tightening up... expect further strengthening.


How can it possibly tighten up any more than 2nm? I mean, the tornado that flattened Hallam, Nebraska was wider than that.


I just had a chill when I read Hallam. That cell was 30mi away from me headed directly toward me.

Umm... very minute tightening. 1.75mi, 1.5mi...


I was up in Lincoln for that storm. Almost chased it too -- my chase car wouldn't start, and I had to get back to work. (I live in Lincoln). Probably for the better; the tornado crossed 77 rain wrapped when it was like 1.5 or 2 miles wide. I like to think I'd have recognized the signs and not tried to core punch that one, but more likely is that someone was looking out for me that day.
0 likes   
Top
Stratosphere747
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3772
Joined: Thu Sep 11, 2003 8:34 pm
Location: Surfside Beach/Freeport Tx
Contact:
Contact Stratosphere747

#427 Postby Stratosphere747 » Wed Oct 19, 2005 2:47 am

senorpepr wrote:
Stratosphere747 wrote:As loud as it actually is onboard....

I bet you could hear a pin drop on the next eye wall penetration.

probably not. the eye is too small. well... maybe for those few seconds.. :wink:


I trying to figure out how in the heck they can even do the typical eyewall penetration. Almost no way you can bank...As soon as they are break thru, they have to be almost right back into the eyewall.
0 likes   
Top
mtm4319
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1537
Joined: Sun Sep 12, 2004 2:47 am
Location: Mobile, AL

#428 Postby mtm4319 » Wed Oct 19, 2005 2:52 am

Are they still at 700mb?
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
senorpepr
Military Met/Moderator
Military Met/Moderator
Posts: 12542
Age: 43
Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
Location: Mackenbach, Germany
Contact:
Contact senorpepr

#429 Postby senorpepr » Wed Oct 19, 2005 2:52 am

Stratosphere747 wrote:
senorpepr wrote:
Stratosphere747 wrote:As loud as it actually is onboard....

I bet you could hear a pin drop on the next eye wall penetration.

probably not. the eye is too small. well... maybe for those few seconds.. :wink:


I trying to figure out how in the heck they can even do the typical eyewall penetration. Almost no way you can bank...As soon as they are break thru, they have to be almost right back into the eyewall.
I'm hoping someone releases their personal story about this flight. Purely amazing. An aviation feat.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
senorpepr
Military Met/Moderator
Military Met/Moderator
Posts: 12542
Age: 43
Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
Location: Mackenbach, Germany
Contact:
Contact senorpepr

#430 Postby senorpepr » Wed Oct 19, 2005 2:52 am

mtm4319 wrote:Are they still at 700mb?
yes
0 likes   
Top
n o o d l z
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 96
Joined: Tue Oct 18, 2005 6:47 pm
Location: Gainesville, FL

#431 Postby n o o d l z » Wed Oct 19, 2005 2:53 am

senorpepr wrote:
Stratosphere747 wrote:
senorpepr wrote:
Stratosphere747 wrote:As loud as it actually is onboard....

I bet you could hear a pin drop on the next eye wall penetration.

probably not. the eye is too small. well... maybe for those few seconds.. :wink:


I trying to figure out how in the heck they can even do the typical eyewall penetration. Almost no way you can bank...As soon as they are break thru, they have to be almost right back into the eyewall.
I'm hoping someone releases their personal story about this flight. Purely amazing. An aviation feat.


I agree...its too bad this wasn't in the daytime to allow pictures.
0 likes   
Top
n o o d l z
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 96
Joined: Tue Oct 18, 2005 6:47 pm
Location: Gainesville, FL

#432 Postby n o o d l z » Wed Oct 19, 2005 3:03 am

Looks like they're getting pretty close to the center..
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Windy
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1628
Joined: Mon Sep 13, 2004 10:13 pm

#433 Postby Windy » Wed Oct 19, 2005 3:12 am

Argh, I'm on pins & needles here!
0 likes   
Top
Stratosphere747
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3772
Joined: Thu Sep 11, 2003 8:34 pm
Location: Surfside Beach/Freeport Tx
Contact:
Contact Stratosphere747

#434 Postby Stratosphere747 » Wed Oct 19, 2005 3:14 am

Unofficial site has it at 887...
0 likes   
Top
Wirbelsturm
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 33
Joined: Mon Oct 17, 2005 11:06 am
Location: Central Kentucky

#435 Postby Wirbelsturm » Wed Oct 19, 2005 3:14 am

...waiting with bated breath...
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 38
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:
Contact HURAKAN

#436 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Oct 19, 2005 3:15 am

Stratosphere747 wrote:Unofficial site has it at 887...


What site? I won't be surprised to see that in the next VORTEX.
0 likes   
Top
superfly

#437 Postby superfly » Wed Oct 19, 2005 3:15 am

166kts FL both SW and NE quad, looks like the winds have leveled off.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Huckster
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 394
Age: 43
Joined: Fri Aug 13, 2004 2:33 am
Location: Baton Rouge, LA
Contact:
Contact Huckster

#438 Postby Huckster » Wed Oct 19, 2005 3:16 am

Yes, please do tell what site! 887 mb would be the strongest known Atlantic hurricane...
0 likes   
Top
Matt-hurricanewatcher

#439 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Wed Oct 19, 2005 3:16 am

If that is right then Gilbert needs to start packing. He is done!!!
0 likes   
Top
mtm4319
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1537
Joined: Sun Sep 12, 2004 2:47 am
Location: Mobile, AL

#440 Postby mtm4319 » Wed Oct 19, 2005 3:16 am

New recon indicates 171.9 mph at surface. Looks like it's peaking.
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: cajungal and 356 guests