Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

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PurdueWx80
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#941 Postby PurdueWx80 » Wed Oct 19, 2005 3:49 am

000
WTNT44 KNHC 190841
TCDAT4
HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT WED OCT 19 2005

IN ADDITION TO THE SPECTACULAR CLOUD PATTERN OBSERVED ON SATELLITE
...AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE MEASURED 168 KNOTS AT 700 MB
AND ESTIMATED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 884 MB EXTRAPOLATED FROM 700MB.
UNOFFICIALLY...THE METEOROLOGIST ON BOARD THE PLANE RELIED AN
EXTRAPOLATED 881 MB PRESSURE AND MEASURED 884 MB WITH A DROPSONDE.
THIS IS ALL IN ASSOCIATION WITH A VERY SMALL EYE THAT HAS BEEN
OSCILLATING BETWEEN 2 AND 4 N MI DURING EYE PENETRATIONS. THIS IS
PROBABLY THE LOWEST MINIMUM PRESSURE EVER OBSERVED IN THE ATLANTIC
BASIN AND IS FOLLOWED BY THE 888 MB MINIMUM PRESSURE ASSOCIATED
WITH HURRICANE GILBERT IN 1988. HOWEVER...ONE MUST BE VERY CAREFUL
BEFORE IT IS DECLARED A RECORD MINIMUM PRESSURE UNTIL A FULL AND
DETAILED CALIBRATION OF THE INSTRUMENTS AND CALCULATIONS IS
PERFORMED. SO PLEASE DO NOT JUMP INTO CONCLUSIONS YET...BE PATIENT.

WILMA IS A CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE THAT IS MOVING OVER
VERY WARM WATERS...TYPICAL OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AND
WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT SHEAR. HOWEVER...DESPITE THE
FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE ENVIRONMENT...WILMA IS NEAR ITS MAXIMUM
POTENTIAL INTENSITY AND FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
MOST LIKELY...THE SMALL EYE WILL COLLAPSE FOLLOWED BY SLIGHT
WEAKENING OR SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY. EYEWALL REPLACEMENT
CYCLES WILL LIKELY CONTROL THE INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS
WHILE THE HURRICANE IS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
THEREAFTER...ONCE WILMA REACHES THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND
ENCOUNTERS THE WESTERLIES AND HIGH SHEAR...WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN.

THE HURRICANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT
7 KNOTS. IT SEEMS THAT DATA FROM THE HIGH ALTITUDE NOAA JET
INGESTED BY MODELS CAUSED THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE TO SHIFT
SLIGHTLY WESTWARD FOR THE 2 TO 3 DAY PERIOD. HOWEVER...NO CHANGE IN
TRACK IS INDICATED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO TURN WILMA SHARPLY TO THE NORTHEAST OVER FLORIDA. BASED ON THE
LATEST GUIDANCE...THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED
SLIGHTLY WESTWARD BUT IS KEPT ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE.
THIS IN CASE THE TRACK GUIDANCE SHIFTS BACK TO THE EAST IN THE NEXT
RUN.

IN SUMMARY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS THE CORE OF THIS
CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND
THEN SHARPLY TURNS A WEAKER HURRICANE TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARD
FLORIDA WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. NO CHANGE IN WARNINGS
OR WATCHES IS REQUIRED AT THIS TIME.

FORECASTER AVILA


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/0900Z 17.2N 82.5W 150 KT
12HR VT 19/1800Z 17.7N 83.4W 150 KT
24HR VT 20/0600Z 18.5N 84.7W 145 KT
36HR VT 20/1800Z 20.0N 85.5W 140 KT
48HR VT 21/0600Z 21.0N 85.7W 130 KT
72HR VT 22/0600Z 22.5N 86.0W 115 KT
96HR VT 23/0600Z 26.5N 81.0W 90 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 24/0600Z 33.0N 72.0W 70 KT
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#942 Postby artist » Wed Oct 19, 2005 3:52 am

getting our first band here in palm beach county
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#943 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Oct 19, 2005 3:54 am

artist wrote:getting our first band here in palm beach county


Yesterday in the evening I got .50 inches of rain.
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#944 Postby johngaltfla » Wed Oct 19, 2005 3:55 am

I go to bed with 110 and wake up with 175?

To quote our favorite:

HOLY CRAP!!!!!!!!!!!

Guess I could be truckin if the models make a dramatics shift. And I don't like the advisory at 0500; the idea that a 175 mph hurricane hitting us as a "weaker" storm scares the crap out of me. What's weaker? 930 mb with 150 mph????????

:eek: :eek: :eek: :eek:
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#945 Postby Scorpion » Wed Oct 19, 2005 4:08 am

884 mb!!!! I am just shocked beyond belief. And this is heading right in my direction.
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#946 Postby Skeetergirl » Wed Oct 19, 2005 4:11 am

Scorpion wrote:884 mb!!!! I am just shocked beyond belief. And this is heading right in my direction.


OMG!!! I think we've had enough records broken!! Give us a break, Wilma!!
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#947 Postby Scorpion » Wed Oct 19, 2005 4:12 am

Scorpion wrote:I think this has the opportunity to break the Atlantic MSLP record.


........
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#948 Postby Dr. Jonah Rainwater » Wed Oct 19, 2005 4:17 am

Wilma looks just like Gilbert right now. How long did Gilbert maintain his peak intensity for? I was 3 months old at the time. :lol:
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#949 Postby f5 » Wed Oct 19, 2005 4:20 am

this year we saw the tip of the iceberg as far as Hurricane strength goes
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#950 Postby SouthFLTropics » Wed Oct 19, 2005 4:20 am

Scorpion wrote:
Scorpion wrote:I think this has the opportunity to break the Atlantic MSLP record.


........


Way to go Scorpian...You nailed that one...I never thought that a storm approaching me from the gulf side would make me nervous considering I live on the Atlantic side. This girl is just one scary monster though...And the track brings it right over my house on the east coast.
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Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22, Milton 24
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hi

#951 Postby Dave C » Wed Oct 19, 2005 4:55 am

I noticed Avilla's discussion at 5am was more bullish on significant shear weakening Wilma than Franklin's discussion yesterday. Let's hope the shear really knocks the stuffing out of this before it reaches Florida. :eek:
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#952 Postby Cookiely » Wed Oct 19, 2005 5:16 am

I wonder what the slow down of Wilma will do to the eventual track and timing of the troughs?
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#953 Postby AZS » Wed Oct 19, 2005 5:30 am

00 GFDL:

WILMA:

Smashing the Yucatan as a CAT 4 then a decrease in winds making it a CAT 2

The problem is, after that, GFDL is predicting another increase in winds, making Wilma a very strong CAT 3 ( 127 mph winds) at landfall.
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#954 Postby Mattie » Wed Oct 19, 2005 5:52 am

With it now being reported that she is a cat 5 - (local news) - what's the likelihood of that sharp curve? I always thought that it is difficult for sharp turns to happen.
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#955 Postby GalvestonDuck » Wed Oct 19, 2005 5:53 am

Just one comment from me after waking up and finding out Wilma is now a Cat 5 with a pressure of 884 --

:eek:

Holy Crap!
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#956 Postby Normandy » Wed Oct 19, 2005 5:57 am

Her eye is wobbling every direction....remember when Emily's did this when it appraoched the Mexican coast?
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#957 Postby O Town » Wed Oct 19, 2005 5:58 am

Wow!!! :coaster:

Here we go! I knew she was gonna explode over night, but wow! She is looking very purty this morning. Lets hope the shear will rip her apart once she starts heading into the southern gulf.
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#958 Postby Trader Ron » Wed Oct 19, 2005 5:59 am

I'm lost for words.....
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#959 Postby HurricaneGirl » Wed Oct 19, 2005 6:01 am

:eek: I am in utter, disbelief and shock. Even sick to my stomach when I saw the little square this morning in the corner of the TV on TWC. :eek:
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#960 Postby baygirl_1 » Wed Oct 19, 2005 6:08 am

Well, I just woke up, hopped on the Internet, and just about woke up the whole house! I screamed when I saw that pressure and those winds and that radar! Fortunately, I only woke my DH and he wanted to know what had happened--- was there another terrorist threat?!
So, when is the next recon due in there?
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