New Orleans Strike Probabililty CAT 2 -Weather Underground

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cindyp
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New Orleans Strike Probabililty CAT 2 -Weather Underground

#1 Postby cindyp » Wed Oct 19, 2005 7:03 am

Why is the strike probability a category 2 for New Orleans on Weather Underground? Here is the link: http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropi ... trike.html
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Foladar0

#2 Postby Foladar0 » Wed Oct 19, 2005 7:05 am

Look at the bottom, it's 5% not cat 2
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#3 Postby cinlfla » Wed Oct 19, 2005 7:06 am

I don't think thats what that means. I think is actually means there is a 5% chance of the storm center coming into that area. which that still makes no sense to me bacause there is nothing for the pandhandle and I would think they would be more at risk.
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#4 Postby Foladar0 » Wed Oct 19, 2005 7:07 am

cinlfla wrote:I don't think thats what that means. I think is actually means there is a 5% chance of the storm center coming into that area. which that still makes no sense to me bacause there is nothing for the pandhandle and I would think they would be more at risk.

"72 hour probability center will pass within 75 miles"
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#5 Postby PBGator » Wed Oct 19, 2005 7:08 am

I'd say the graphic is wrong. At any reasonably forecast forward speed the chance of New Orlean being hit is .00001%
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#6 Postby Foladar0 » Wed Oct 19, 2005 7:11 am

PBGator wrote:I'd say the graphic is wrong. At any reasonably forecast forward speed the chance of New Orlean being hit is .00001%

No, it's correct. 5% is nothing, just there to cover them probably.
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#7 Postby dcuevas » Wed Oct 19, 2005 7:16 am

Is it just me or did the models move North? I thought yesturday some of the models had predicted South Florida. Maybe I'm just seeing things, But then again I am a newby.
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Foladar0

#8 Postby Foladar0 » Wed Oct 19, 2005 7:20 am

dcuevas wrote:Is it just me or did the models move North? I thought yesturday some of the models had predicted South Florida. Maybe I'm just seeing things, But then again I am a newby.

They did go north -some- but its still in South Florida.
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