New theorem

[dhweather]

In the last 25 years, it holds true.

In 1980, Allen's surge was recorded as 12 feet at Port Mansfield, Texas,
however the surge was likely higher in the unpopulated areas north of there.

[WindRunner]

Awwww, I was having fun! I haven't gotten into a debate anywhere for a long time. Oh well, if the Latin scholar thinks the point's proven, then it must be proven. I think it's a good one, dh.

[dhweather]

Floridians - take note - there's an extremely strong chance that Wilma
will enter the Gulf of Mexico as a category 5 hurricane. Unfortunately,
my new theroem will likely apply then to the landfall location.

START PACKING NOW.

If you are in the cat 5 flood area, what you take with you is all you may
have after this is over.

Finally HEED THE WARNINGS FROM YOUR LOCAL OFFICIALS - if they
say get out, then GET OUT.

[Ixolib]

And even though I've posted this in the SWFL Thread, I would also like to re-iterate it here. IAW with DH's theory, you may not even know what REALLY constitutes a "cat 5 flood zone". For a look at what I'm talking about, please see this link:

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?p=1107238#1107238

[Ixolib]

And even though I've posted this in the SWFL Thread, I would also like to re-iterate it here. IAW with DH's theory, you may not even know what REALLY constitutes a "cat 5 flood zone". For a look at what I'm talking about, please see this link:

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?p=1107238#1107238

[rockst0ne]

For this forum and any other science related forum, science outweighs conjecture. We are all scientists, whether amateur or professional. Forming a theory is fine, but follow the basic scientific method of finding a theory and state your hypothesis first, then test it and make certain its legit. (it takes time to do this)

All in all, it is quite interesting to think that once a mature hurricane takes shape it will keep its surge. The surge probably just takes more time to subside than the pressure or winds and isn't as affected by land than the aforementioned.

Good luck.

[Terry]

dhweather - I totally agree with you. That surge, in most cases will keep on keeping on once a Cat5 is in the GOM. You won't catch me on or near a barrier island on FLA's west coast with Wilma headed in, even if she drops to a Cat 2.

[HurryKane]

I shall call it the "Run, Dummy, Run!" rule.

[flarrfan]

How would the currently projected sharp right turn affect surge? Common sense tells this layman that a Cat 5 surge being pushed in one direction would likely dissipate considerably with the kind of turn and weakening the models are showing. Ivan, Katrina, Rita all came ashore in a relatively straight path from the Cat 5 status, with just a slight NE jog to all of them toward the end. However, if the models are right with Wilma, I have a problem seeing that Cat 5 surge lasting through such a sharp turn. Other thoughts?

[gpickett00]

As for "not always", effectively every GOMEX cat 5 has provided a cat 5
surge at landfall. Ivan, Rita, Katrina....

And I wisely left my escape clause "should"

How about hurricane camille? I dont know any official estimates for surge but I'm sure that hurricane katrina had much higher surge than camille. Katrinia was a huge strong storm------>huge surge
Camille was a small strong storm------>not as big

[dhweather]

As for "not always", effectively every GOMEX cat 5 has provided a cat 5
surge at landfall. Ivan, Rita, Katrina....

And I wisely left my escape clause "should"

How about hurricane camille? I dont know any official estimates for surge but I'm sure that hurricane katrina had much higher surge than camille. Katrinia was a huge strong storm------>huge surge
Camille was a small strong storm------>not as big

The highest surge with Camille was at the mouth of the Jourdan River in
Bay St. Louis of 27 feet.

[dhweather]

For this forum and any other science related forum, science outweighs conjecture. We are all scientists, whether amateur or professional. Forming a theory is fine, but follow the basic scientific method of finding a theory and state your hypothesis first, then test it and make certain its legit. (it takes time to do this)

All in all, it is quite interesting to think that once a mature hurricane takes shape it will keep its surge. The surge probably just takes more time to subside than the pressure or winds and isn't as affected by land than the aforementioned.
Good luck.

That is exactly right - things that happen in the atmosphere happen in the
ocean, they are just much slower to respond in the ocean. While the wind
may slow back to a cat 2/3, the surge can very well stay at a 5 for some time.

So far, the last 25 years of data are correct with my theroem. I'll check more as time allows.

[tailgater]

While we are the subject of surge could some one explain to me what Exactly is storm surge; Total water rise as the storm passes or water rise as the eye passes. I ask this because water levels along S.Miss and SE La. rose a good deal, before what I always thought was the storm surge. Is it the rise in water levels in addition to tidal surge?

[Ixolib]

While we are the subject of surge could some one explain to me what Exactly is storm surge; Total water rise as the storm passes or water rise as the eye passes. I ask this because water levels along S.Miss and SE La. rose a good deal, before what I always thought was the storm surge. Is it the rise in water levels in addition to tidal surge?

From NHC/NOAA:

Storm Surge:
An abnormal rise in sea level accompanying a hurricane or other intense storm, and whose height is the difference between the observed level of the sea surface and the level that would have occurred in the absence of the cyclone. Storm surge is usually estimated by subtracting the normal or astronomic high tide from the observed storm tide.

Storm Tide:
The actual level of sea water resulting from the astronomic tide combined with the storm surge.

[tailgater]

While we are the subject of surge could some one explain to me what Exactly is storm surge; Total water rise as the storm passes or water rise as the eye passes. I ask this because water levels along S.Miss and SE La. rose a good deal, before what I always thought was the storm surge. Is it the rise in water levels in addition to tidal surge?

From NHC/NOAA:

Storm Surge:
An abnormal rise in sea level accompanying a hurricane or other intense storm, and whose height is the difference between the observed level of the sea surface and the level that would have occurred in the absence of the cyclone. Storm surge is usually estimated by subtracting the normal or astronomic high tide from the observed storm tide.

Storm Tide:
The actual level of sea water resulting from the astronomic tide combined with the storm surge.

Thanks Ixolib, that helps.

[dhweather]

OK, I've reviewed a lot of data. Here's a list of storms that
were cat 5's in the Gulf of Mexico, and their surge at landfall:

2005: Rita "At least 15 feet" (Cameron Parish, LA)
2005: Katrina 30+ Feet (Bay St. Louis, MS)
2004: Ivan 12 feet (Navarre Beach, FL)
1969: Camille 27 Feet (Bay St. Louis, MS)
1967: Beulah "At least 18 feet" (30MI S Corpus Christi)
1961: Carla 18.5 feet (Port Lavaca, TX)

In the last 45 years, hurricanes that have been category 5 strength
in the Gulf of Mexico, all but Ivan produced category 5 surge.

[sunupgal]

Hi! Some help please..... I live on an island on the west coast of Florida, in the Tampa area. Do you think I should evacuate even with the current path, and how much storm surge should I expect if Wilma comes in so far south. I realize that the closer to me it comes, the worse the surge would be, but would it really be that bad if it came in around Ft. Myers?

[dhweather]

Hi! Some help please..... I live on an island on the west coast of Florida, in the Tampa area. Do you think I should evacuate even with the current path, and how much storm surge should I expect if Wilma comes in so far south. I realize that the closer to me it comes, the worse the surge would be, but would it really be that bad if it came in around Ft. Myers?

That's not a question for anyone here to answer. Only your local officials
can provide you with accurate advice on evacuation for your area.

I would be getting ready to evacuate if I lived in your area.

[sunupgal]

Thanks for the answer DH....but if I may ask a more broad question.....assuming that Wilma hit say...Fort Myers with the intensification that is thought at this point....what would I expect for storm surge in my area?

[patsmsg]

After considering Magee's Theorem and Drew's Corollary, I have formulated "Pat's Postulate for Packing" and it goes like this: If you live on the Gulf Coast, and a Cat-5 hurricane heads your way, you pack up and leave.
Period.

I totally agree that if a storm WAS a Cat 5, you treat it like a cat 5 with respect to storm surge even if it weakens significantly prior to landfall. I'm sure the amount of time that has passed since it was a cat 5 figures into the equation, as well as the amount of weakening, but I certainly think a (once cat 5) storm that has maintained cat 3 status or higher until landfall will bring a cat 5 surge. That water is not going to be able to get back where it came from, once it is pushed out in "front" of the storm.